The CPC Will Get A Glimpse Into Its Future Political Viability On Monday Night.

As usual, the commentariat and media will get it wrong. They'll be concentrating on whether the leader can reach or top eighty-three percent. But that's not what really counts. Sure to look reassuring, the leader has to come in somewhere above sixty-nine percent to remain politically viable. 

But the real deal will be about the voter participation rate: if voters really have high confidence in the leader, they should turn out to vote in much higher percentages than the usual byelection fifty percent. The turnout will speak volumes about the leader and the party's electoral future. The leader has to hit this one out of the ballpark; otherwise, he's already in serious trouble.

I expect an underwhelming and ego-busting turnout with far more protest votes than previously anticipated. So the number could come out unexpectedly bad. I'm hoping for thirty-five percent support. From my brain, heart and soul to God's ears. LOL.