LPC: Why The Polls Mean Everything And Nothing At The Same Time.

Nanos has a four-day rolling poll that's out with Day One results. It shows the Liberals and Conservatives tied at thirty-six percent. The same applies to Liaison, which has both parties at thirty-eight percent. None of this is good news for Conservatives as long as Pierre's personal rating lags the party's. It's as simple as that. Another thing is the notoriously efficient Liberal vote, which means they're favoured to win more seats in a close split vote. Add to that the fact that we aren't even in March yet, and the New Democrats' support is starting to firm up in the polls. Not good news for an opposition party hoping to form a government next spring. In short, the latest polls mean everything for the Liberals but not much for the rest of us.

Now, as to why the polls mean nothing: Carney has already poached two CPC MPs, and indications are that at least two more will be deserting the party at a moment of Carney's choosing. I expect that won't happen until next February for strategic reasons: the Liberals are hoping that Pierre wins the leadership review vote next month with flying colours. They've correctly calculated that as long as Poilièvre is the leader, it will continue to be great for them. Picture it: two or more floor crossers move to the Liberals, giving Carney his precious majority. That means at least four more years with Carney as prime minister. Add to the mix Pierre receiving a resounding mandate at the convention in Calgary, and you can tack on another four years. Eight long years before the CPC will have a realistic chance of forming a government. 

Some will argue that the above is irrelevant. I say, tell that to Rodriguez, who resigned once it became clear that he no longer had the support of a majority in caucus. Put another way, caucus, which is made up primarily of MNAs elected in Liberal strongholds, started to feel the heat and was worried that they might lose their ridings come October. So, they made their move, and Pablo was history. Look to Ontario CPC MPs to head in the same direction if Carney illegitimately gets a majority via floor crossing. Once it becomes their collective ass versus that of the leader, the Reform Act will be quickly dusted off and voted upon. It was easy for them to have said no up until now. However, wait until only the Liberals can command the confidence of the House. At that point, a third of caucus who hate Pierre's guts will finally have their say, and it won't be pretty for the leader. In politics, the golden rule reminds us that each MP's ass always inevitably passes before that of the leader. Everyone in Ottawa is already well aware of that.