Ukraine: The Lynch Pin To WWIII.

It's as simple as this: how goes Ukraine, how will go the continent. Trump is pushing for an end to the war, but thus far has not come up with any elements of a peace plan that Ukraine can accept. Ukraine will not agree to anything other than the restoration of its territory that was previously taken by the Russians. For their part, the Russians want to lock in territorial gains made over the last three years and before that.

As a result, we are in a no-win situation when it comes to a peace plan: the EU and the UK threaten increased economic sanctions against Russia if Putin doesn't comply with their demands. For his part, Putin is intent on staying in power, and that necessarily means not acceding to Western demands on Ukraine. As a result, the EU at least is likely to increase sanctions exponentially following its most recent ultimatum to Russia.

All of the above elements are crucial to the countdown to war in Europe: let's begin with Putin. Putin has proved in spades what he's made of: he will do whatever it takes for Russia to win in Ukraine. He views the war just like a cornered rat would. Put another way, he is extremely dangerous because not only is Putin fighting for his political life, but also for his personal survival. Putin knows that to stay alive and remain in power, he has to tow the hardest possible line vis-à-vis a possible peace agreement and potential ceasefire. The Russian establishment expects nothing less and likely would not stand for further concessions.

At the other end of the political spectrum lie the Europeans who are sick of Putin's masterful delaying tactics and lack of meaningful concessions. They actually think that by threatening to further cripple Russia with the mother of all economic sanctions, that Putin will finally see reason and bend to a peace wind. They're sadly mistaken. 

So the die is cast for a likely widening of the war sometime in 2026. Putin won't bend an inch, and Trump won't use the United States' influence and power to get Putin to make concessions. In fact, Trump is basically already onside with Putin's view of a peace plan, and that does not bode well for European national security. Given that reality, it is noteworthy that both France and Germany have moved to voluntary, optional mobilization for part of their defence needs. That is an ominous sign indeed when taken with the resumption of nuclear weapons testing by both Russia and the United States. It very much feels like a countdown to an almost inevitable full-scale war in Europe. 

Meanwhile, we await the falling of the third domino: to see what the UK will do next. Starmer has pledged to deploy peacekeeping forces on the ground in Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, but beyond that, he has not gone. This really feels like Austria versus Serbia in July 1914. Sadly, the only unanswered question now is which nation-state gets to be Austria and which country ends up being Serbia? May God help us in the interim.