As Trump Fades As The Number One Issue, The Real Deal Comes To The Fore: Leader Likability.

Here it is in a nutshell: CPC support is huge and growing. That's why the crowds are mostly record crowds in English Canada. LPC support has increased among Liberals, but their crowds vary in size. The NDP is almost on its deathbed with support rapidly dropping. My bet is that they will lose party status and Jagmeet will suddenly find himself unemployed.

But here's the get real moment: Progressive women are abandoning the New Democrats in droves and moving to the Liberals to block the Conservatives, and if that trend holds, which I expect it will, the CPC will not be able to form government. Much of the Canadian left wants nothing to do with us, and that's why we're still losing in this campaign.