Under certain circumstances, the hesitant are doomed to failure. Party elders and two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission had assumed Xi Jinping would adhere to established norms, respecting the Communist Party's orthodox ideology and internal mechanisms. Yet he charted a different course. They were entirely subdued by Xi Jinping, but this merely serves as yet another illustration of ‘winning the battle but potentially losing the war’. Xi Jinping is learning this lesson day by day. He had planned to remain in power until at least next year, but that goal now appears increasingly elusive.
Real power lies with the army, which has yet to act openly. They resist Xi through silence and carefully orchestrated inaction. Rumours suggest the military is also protecting the party elders—who remain divided over their next move.
In this cat-and-mouse game, both sides are playing their cards: the elders must unite or risk being crushed again; Xi must consolidate his severely eroded authority. One side wins through action, the other through waiting. Yet the army remains the decisive force in this power struggle. Should Xi move against the armed forces, police and state security agencies would struggle to match a unified military command. Xi needs more time and luck. He knows full well that should war break out between army and police forces on Chinese soil, victory would be elusive—and his life could be at stake.
From the military's perspective, Xi faces either a dignified exit through compromise with the elders and armed forces or a complete and utterly disgraceful disappearance.
Ultimately, the army will determine the survival of Beijing's next regime. Xi may have overplayed his hand, leaving him with few political allies beyond his inner circle—a circumstance that could well prove the root cause of his eventual downfall.
No comments:
Post a Comment