Do not be deceived by appearances: Xi Jinping is now trapped in Beijing like a caged beast, daring not to set foot outside the capital for fear of being overthrown or assassinated. Yet this impression may be misleading. To win this power struggle, Xi needs the most precious resource on Earth—time. And the Party elders and princelings are foolishly providing him with the noose to hang his opponents. The longer the elders, princelings and reformists delay, the greater Xi Jinping's chances of ultimately prevailing and purging his enemies.
The elders and princelings naively believe they can wait until the 21st Central Committee formally strips Xi Jinping of his posts and forces his retirement at the 21st National Congress. This is a fatal miscalculation. If decisive action is not taken now and is delayed until next year, it could spell disaster.
Close attention must be paid to shifts in the political winds and the manoeuverings of Zhang Shengmin—he will become the next barometer for judging where power lies. Should he (even informally) align with the dissent camp, it would carry profound significance. Simultaneously, Liu Yuan's trajectory warrants scrutiny—his sudden promotion to Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission would signal that the elder statesmen and privileged Party elite have, at least temporarily, gained the upper hand.
However, the dissident faction recently faced Xi Jinping's crackdown, and any further confrontation could prove deadly. It must be recognized that Xi Jinping will defend his power and privileges at any cost; should the situation escalate, he will fight to the end. Xi Jinping and each of his two sisters collectively possess assets worth trillions. Such wealth is not easily given up, even at the cost of their own lives.
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