Ha, Ha, Ha. Jeneroux Gives Away The Game!

Jeneroux said he left the CPC caucus because of...national unity. In other words, he just inadvertently gave away the master plan. Carney must be steamed. You see, the PMO strategy has now shifted monumentally from Trump to national unity. It goes something like this: Scene One - the PMO will continue to work on Conservative MPs. It's my contention that they will get at least two more to cross. Then they'll be short one MP to get a majority. The short-term plan is to get that precious majority mostly through floor crossing, and they will. 

Now on to Scene Two - the byelections: Liberals will take both University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest in a New York minute. But there's a problem: post the SCOC decision, they will lose Terrebonne to the Bloc.

So they come out of both the floor crossing and the byelections with a majority in Parliament, more particularly in the House of Commons. Then things get really interesting: they will front-run legislation all the way to the fall and then deliver a poison pill in the Commons if it remains a sure bet that the PQ will win in October. Carney will go Ford one better and argue that, given that the PQ is about to form government in Quebec and given the serious state of Alberta separatism, he needs an unequivocal mandate to defend both federalism and to strongly represent Canadians across every region.

Finally, Scene Three - the Quebec strategy: the Liberals will deliberately go either before or in the wake of the Quebec provincial election, and the reasoning will go along these lines: if Quebecers face twin elections in the fall, that can only be to Carney's benefit. Pourquoi, you ask? Lots of voters will prioritize voting in the provincial election, especially on the sovereignist side, and that likely means federal Liberal gains in this province at the expense of the Bloc if turnout drops significantly in a federal election.

So there you have it. The answer is Yes, Yes and Yes. More floor crossers, more byelection wins and a fall election where the Liberals win a huge majority.

Pierre must need a sedative just about now.