Alberta referendum: don't rely on turnout to determine whether the ‘Yes’ vote will win.

Albertans will have the opportunity to compare and contrast two schools of thought on voting day. The first argues that voters see the ballot box as a change agent and that, consequently, high turnout means ballots cast for reform or renewal. Conversely, the referendum argument suggests that voting and a high turnout tend to favour the status quo rather than major, or even radical, change. In essence, turnout can be a major factor, though it is unlikely to change the outcome in an average-to-high-turnout referendum.

In Alberta, more than 80 percent of those surveyed say they intend to vote in next week’s referendum. Turnout is expected to be between 80 and 85 percent; if these forecasts prove accurate, most eligible Albertans plan on making their voices heard at the ballot box. Let us compare this with the turnout rates seen in the last two provincial elections: 61 percent in 2023 and 68 percent in 2019.

I've argued that this first referendum should be seen as carrying neither consequences nor risks. It is a vote intended to send a message to Ottawa, and I think this view favours the ‘Yes’ camp. I also think that support for the ‘Yes’ side is being underestimated, as some Albertans will not want to admit to pollsters that they favour secession. I would even go so far as to say that if all the pieces fall into place, the ‘Yes’ vote could pull off a surprise win. In short, a veritable political earthquake.

And then there's the real elephant in the room: Smith’s statement that if the ‘Remain’ camp wins, the separatists can forget a second referendum. Talk about a double-edged sword. Her comments were meant to clarify matters, but perhaps should not have come until the vote was counted. By speaking out now, Smith has probably strengthened the resolve of the separatists and their allies. This undoubtedly means that, at least to some extent, her comments have helped the ‘Yes’ side.

And as if Smith didn’t have enough problems already, over 50 percent of the UCP caucus favour ‘Leave’, with some already calling for her removal as party leader. Ouch! A flashback to the Kenney days. It could mean that Smith wins her referendum, but ultimately loses her position as party leader and premier. As the vote approaches, things aren't looking good for Smith. She could end up as the big loser right after the referendum.