Democratic Tidal Wave In November?

Colour me skeptical, even with polls pegging Trump as the most unpopular modern-day president at 32%, since W's ill-fated 19% during the 2008 financial crisis. Republicans generally, and MAGA particularly, are a curious breed prone to dismiss reality in favour of blind loyalty to the party and the president. Put another way, if you aren't lower-to-middle-class and hurting economically, you're still likely voting for the Republicans. And that isn't an insignificant block of voters.

Trump keeps telling people to act as if his name is on the ballot, and that stirs nothing but glee from Democrats. Sure, in our neck of the woods we're heading for political nirvana, but Trump's call will also rally the comfortable and the well-off. Not just the trillionaire-billionaire-millionaire class.

Then comes the down-ballot: it looks like the Democrats have already locked up the House with projections that they'll win at least 20 seats.  The party must win 4 seats to hold a Senate majority, and that looks doable. The states to watch are Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Maine and Alaska. Either the turnout of the disaffected or the contented will decide these races.

When it comes to state legislative seats, party momentum as a change agent is likely to lose some of its fizz. In the end, down-ballot, a pretty good night for Democrats, but likely not an earth-shattering win. Trump, MAGA and Republicans aren't close to being dead just yet.          

From on high, Donald Trump looks to be in league with James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson and Richard Nixon, but voting-day appearances could be deceiving or disappointing after the polls close.