Midterms: The Incoming Tide Is Republican.

No question about that. Republicans will win big in the midterms up and down the ballot, largely due to independents, who've abandoned the Democrats. This thing has seesawed back and forth, but Republican momentum is now clear and perhaps unshakable: Walker and Oz are proof enough of that. 

The generic congressional polls show that the Republican tide may eventually turn into a landslide, but more than likely not a rout for Democrats. 

And then there's the terrible attack on Paul Pelosi. People will be appalled, disgusted, but will it ultimately move enough votes to mitigate or reverse the Republican trend? Who knows. It's the only thing not already baked into the cake.

RealClear Politics:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Republicans (R)	Democrats (D)	Spread
RCP Average	10/12 - 10/27	--	48.0	45.1	Republicans +2.9
Data for Progress (D)**	10/26 - 10/27	1217 LV	49	45	Republicans +4
Trafalgar Group (R)	10/25 - 10/27	1089 LV	48	42	Republicans +6
Rasmussen Reports	10/23 - 10/27	2500 LV	49	42	Republicans +7
InsiderAdvantage	10/25 - 10/25	750 LV	48	44	Republicans +4

FiveThirtyEight:

Generic ballot, 2022

AVG.

Oct.26-27	1,217	LV	B Data for Progress		Democrat	45%	49%	Republican		Republican	+4
Oct.25-27	642	LV	B/C Tufts University		Democrat	48%	47%	Republican		Democrat	+1
Oct.25-27	1,089	LV	A- Trafalgar Group		Democrat	42%	48%	Republican		Republican	+6
Oct.23-27	2,500	LV	B Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research		Democrat	42%	49%	Republican		Republican	+7
Oct.24-26	1,014	RV	B/C Echelon Insights		Democrat	48%	45%	Republican		Democrat	+3

Midterms: The Economy Number One, Inflation Number Two.

What an election is ahead: neither Biden nor Trump are on the ballot, but both have negatives above 50%. That will affect results in the midterms. 

With roughly two weeks to go, I won't be making any predictions just yet, but I want you to enjoy the last leg of the race.

Here are the two places to go to. Don't miss them.

FiveThirtyEight | FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.

RealClearPolitics - Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls

Xi Is Now Dictator.

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party has come to a close and in public fashion, Xi has put the final touches on the purge -- Hu was unceremoniously escorted out of the meeting allegedly for health reasons -- but seemingly showing resistance to leave, at least at first.

It was a spectacular and dramatic display that sent exactly the right message: Xi's takeover of the party is now complete.  Jiang and Zhu were nowhere to be found at the Congress, and Hu's protégée, Li, lost his position as number two on the Standing Committee. That means he'll be replaced as Premier soon enough.

But as they say, live pictures don't lie: just check out the guy who was sitting on Hu's left: the guy is sweating throughout and that says it all. He even takes out a handkerchief to wipe his face. End of story. That's pretty much it.

Of course, all of this has wider implications for world peace: first, Putin and his adventurism in Ukraine and now Xi unchallenged, who could strike at Taiwan at any time without being checked internally. Call it the second leg of the WW III stool. All we need now is the last leg, and where will that come from? Iran, North Korea, or somewhere else? Not good.

Québec Solidaire et le Parti Québécois: refus du serment d'allégeance au souverain.

Pourtant, la Loi constitutionnelle 1982, à l'article 128, est clair: pour siéger, les membres de l'Assemblée nationale doivent porter le serment d'allégeance au souverain, le roi Charles III. Québec Solidaire et le Parti Québécois refusent. 

On cite une décision de la Court of Appeal for Ontario sur la déclaration du serment qui stipule que le serment est plutôt porté envers les institutions démocratiques et le gouvernement. Voilà le raisonnement de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon et les autres.

Premièrement, cette décision est une décision qui porte sur une loi fédérale, mais elle est limitée au territoire géographique de cette province.

Le débat constitutionnel au Québec semble indiquer d'une part que l'Assemblée nationale pourrait adopter une motion en chambre pour changer le serment. Ou, le gouvernement du Québec pourrait préparer un projet de loi dans ce sens. 

D'autres diront qu'il faudra adopter au fédéral un amendement constitutionnel avec un appui de toutes les législatures des provinces.

Pour ma part, je crois, au minimum, que l'Assemblée nationale devra non seulement adopter une motion, mais également une loi à cet effet. De plus, Québec devra pareillement envoyer une demande de renvoi devant la Cour d'appel du Québec. Et si la cour rend un jugement favorable, c'est beau.

Is This It?

The Federal Reserve is scrambling to prop up Swiss banks, via The Swiss National Bank, their central bank. 

Yahoo News and others are on top of it:

Swiss National Bank makes another big draw on Fed swap line (yahoo.com)

We all heard rumours about Credit Suisse. And what about UBS and other banks?

UK: They Truss No Longer.

Now, this is interesting. We know a few things now that Truss is gone: firstly, that stimulative income tax cuts don't necessarily go with high and seemingly galloping inflation. Secondly, what a disaster her policies have been for the British pound.

But what intrigues me is who was for Truss getting the boot. Was it only a plurality in caucus or was the party membership on the same wave length?

I think there was a psychological divorce there: caucus largely was for her resignation but not most of the party membership. So, expect trouble ahead and that will inevitably affect who becomes the next leader and PM. In short, expect another Johnson loyalist as it appears that Johnson won't be having a go -- he's too busy cashing in apparently on speeches -- or so they say.

Finally, how will this rollercoaster reverberate in our politics? Will it make our leaders more vulnerable to caucus' whims and dictates? I think so. Caucuses at all levels will be feeling their oats, empowered you might say. So, leaders had better tread rather lightly if they know what's good for them.

It could very well even lead to Liberal MPs finally getting religion and ditching their albatross at last, you know, the guy who can no longer get beyond useless minority governments. It might just end with Trudeau taking a hint and finally getting lost. We can only hope. Otherwise, caucus might end up giving him a big and final push out the door. Now that would be humiliating and likely to seriously unswell that head of his, such as it is...

Will It Be Danielle Smith...

Or, will it be Danielle Smith! That depends mostly on her. You see, context and perspective rightly goes out the window once the drums of war start to beat. Smith learned that lesson the hard way. 

That's what makes this a killer political moment. Can she come back from this? Theoretically, sure but don't bet the farm on it.

Before the war, it was OK, if not misguided, to want Ukraine to remain neutral. That's what NATO wanted -- it's why they turned down membership for Ukraine the first time. Sweden and Finland lived and breathed their neutrality.

But war changes people and especially governments. Today, Sweden and Finland are being fast-tracked for NATO membership while other countries are also looking at joining.

But back to Smith. She seemingly gets it now but will it be politically forgiveable? I don't know but the apology might take the steam out of a potential caucus revolt...might.

As to the nuclear weapons angle, that one is easily forgiveable. Just think back to what Clinton and George W. said before they ultimately learned the foreign policy ropes. You can throw in Obama as well. 

So, this is going to be interesting, to say the very least. Right now, Smith comes off as politically unfit. It's disqualifying, some will say even after the apology. 

I've got my drink and popcorn handy, eagerly awaiting to see how this one turns out. Maybe it's Saint Paul on the road to Damascus but probably not.