Fall Election: A Pox On Both Their Houses?

It doesn't take a genius to discover that there are a few prevailing trends this fall: to begin, the Liberal minority government has become more vulnerable, what with its failure so far to come up with anything substantive or even minimal on the Trump tariff front. You can tell in QP that the Liberals are feeling the heat and starting to crack. Carney hasn't buckled yet, but Champagne and Joly already have. To modify Warren's famous political dictum: when you're screaming, you're losing. Contrast that with Pierre's delivery. He isn't yelling.

The other trend is softening in Liberal support. They received 44 percent on election day as opposed to 42 percent for the Conservatives. Each party has been range-bound within an exact ten-point range: Liberals, 48-38; Conservatives, 41-31. Theoretically, either party could make gains in an unexpected election, but I suspect that Carney definitely doesn't want one. He'd like to go when they have more than a decent shot at a majority, and that ain't now. I don't think Poilièvre wants one either. We simply don't have enough of a consistent and growing lead in a plurality of polls. We love to cite Abacus Data and Angus Reid, but other polling companies are not confirming our consistent narrow lead with those two pollsters. And then, there's the matter of vote efficiency, where the Liberals clearly have a built-in advantage.

Don't think for a minute that either the NDP or the Bloc will vote against this budget. Quite simply, the NDP has just kicked off its leadership race and has no money. As for the Bloc,  it's too far behind the Liberals in Quebec to risk an election now and possibly lose even more seats to the Liberals.

Pierre will have an interesting tactical decision to make: either roll the dice and go for it or support Carney. The first camp will argue that Liberal support is already soft, vulnerable, and not seen as results-driven. They'll stress that we can steadily make consistent gains in the campaign that would be enough for us to win at least a minority government. The other camp will advise extreme caution: Pierre will be reminded what happened to Ignatieff when he supported Harper's 2009 budget. That move was widely seen as the beginning of the end for the Liberals.

If this were a year ago, with Trudeau still in the picture, there's no question that the CPC would be itching for an election, expected or otherwise. But as Pierre knows only too well, having previously lost his own riding, Carney, even a wounded Carney, is no Trudeau.

My prediction. The Conservatives will not vote against this budget if it appears the government could fall. Our time was yesterday. Our priority now is to ensure that tomorrow becomes our time. Today is not tomorrow.