China: Post Fourth Plenum Uncertainty.

The reform and military factions appear to have won the upper hand over Xi Jinping. Publicly, Xi came out of the Fourth Plenary Session with his three titles intact. However, behind the scenes, the view is quite different: Xi reportedly offered his resignation, and it was accepted but made a state secret. Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's Reformers likely came out on top. During his speech, those who know Xi well probably got a good laugh: his speech was full of acknowledgements that he had made mistakes while in office. He humbled himself before the Plenum with what were more likely crocodile tears than a genuine expression of contrition and regret. 

A parade of other officials appeared at the lectern to acknowledge their own errors, including Zhang Youxia, who is now firmly in control of the Chinese military after record-setting purges of generals and admirals for corruption and other offences. Read moves to oust Zhang Youxia and his allies.

You will likely argue that I'm out to lunch when I say that I expect Xi to try once again to gain control over the military. Xi is nothing if not ruthless and steely determined to put it politely. One might argue that he will go for Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, but I suspect he will take a different tack. Reformers in the end are not really reformers. They are, in fact, proponents of reform only to the extent that it saves the CCP. That is their only objective: to keep the party in power. Mao Zedong said that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun, and he wasn't far off. My suspicion is that Xi realizes that the Reformers are too old and far too cautious when it comes to sidelining him, so expect some kind of move by Xi against them. Reformers made a serious mistake when they allowed Xi to hold on to his three posts, at least for public consumption. That was a major strategic error. I think Xi will move against Wang Yang and Hu Chunghua next. If he does, that will cut all the wind out of the Reformers' sails. Hope I'm wrong. That will leave Zhang Youxia isolated. Will Zhang have the stomach to take on Xi directly, or will he back down? It could go either way, so don't bet on the end result. 

In CCP terms, is this the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? Only Confucius really knows.