Why The Chance Of A Holiday Election Is Likely 99%.

Let's start with the Liberals: MacKinnon is full of shit with their fake woe is us. They WANT an election because their polls tell them that a majority government is almost guaranteed if we go to the polls. They will use their usual playbook and blame the Conservatives, and it will work. They can't wait for that majority, so if the government falls, it'll be great for them.

For their part, the Conservatives want additional spending cuts and a substantial reduction in the public service. In other words, greater cuts and austerity measures than Carney is prepared to make, so we'll more than likely be voting against this budget.

Both the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats want more targeted spending, so both are definite No votes on the budget. Carney has pledged to deliver austerity and some public service layoffs, so forget about some NDP MPs abstaining. They're opposed to cuts full bore. The NDP also knows that if they abstain, they will go the way Social Credit did in 1979. As for the Greens, with Carney's commitment to natural resources and particularly oil and gas, May is also a negative vote.

In short, see you on the campaign trail!