The Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is scheduled to convene this Monday. Before this, nine senior military officers were relieved of their duties: He Weidong, Miao Hua, He Hongjun, Wang Xiubin, Lin Xiangyang, Qin Shutong, Yuan Huazhi, Wang Houbin, and Wang Chunning. Speculation abounds regarding the instigator of this purge and its implications for the plenary session. One view holds that this represents a defensive manoeuvre by Xi Jinping to consolidate power, targeting allies and confidants—reportedly including several members of the Fujian faction. Another theory suggests Zhang Youxia spearheaded the operation to strengthen control over the military. Given the prior deployment of the 38th Group Army to Beijing, a likely standoff has now formed at the Jingxi Hotel.
I will monitor the movements of Defence Minister Dong Jun closely. Should he be removed, Xi Jinping would face significant difficulties. Coupled with the abrupt reversal of rare earth export licensing policies, this clearly indicates Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao may be regaining the initiative—at least within limited circles.
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