UK: Some Will Be Watching Andy. Others, Nigel. I'll Be Following Kemi.

The Burnham Bounce is official, but it's not even a jump. So Labour better not draw too much from it. It's sort of like a conditional peck on the cheek rather than a vigorous liplock. In America, they might talk of road-testing a prime minister because, in essence, we're speaking of exactly that. Burnham has already proven that he's no Starmer and the party and its supporters must be exceedingly grateful for that. But 2029 is a long way off, especially if Andy keeps his word until his next encounter with voters. 

Nigel seems to be coming off as cheap, amateurish theatre, a sort of circular firing squad where the leader keeps firing mostly against his own self-interest. Party support has stalled or slumped, depending on your perspective. So, from Labour's point of view, all seems good, at least for now.

One wonders if voters are prepared to give Kemi a second look? Are Reform's misfortunes an opportunity or merely a reflection of temporary woes? Personally, were I British, I would be Kemi-inclined, especially if Burnham somehow screwed it all up with devastating tax hikes. Call it an opening, if you will. Thatcheresque, she is to some degree, but only time will tell.

In the interim, let's see if these numbers are consequential or indicative of a pending trend: