Blackburn: Can He Win?

Following the Liberal convention in Lévis, two waves emerged on the ground: the first revealing that Rodriguez was ahead in the leadership race. But there was also a second: that of followers of the reputed temple of a mysterious ghostly figure that was ever present at the convention. In a word: Blackburn.

Blackburn seems intent on returning to the political scene after his cancer treatments, and his network already appears to be active. And his organization is probably the most impressive of all the leadership candidates. Behind the scenes, there is talk of a possible, but seemingly certain candidacy. It appears that several former ministers and MNAs are ready to join his team. They are waiting for him to formally announce his candidacy. That's it.

The advent of a Blackburn candidacy would be the worst-case scenario for Rodriguez, among others. Coincidentally, the other declared candidates are hammering Pablo on the issue of public finances and his lack of objections. They also criticize his links in Ottawa, given that Rodriguez still sits as an MP. In some party circles, it's hard to understand why Pablo did not immediately sever his ties with Trudeau as soon as his candidacy was announced.

And the contrast between Rodriguez and Blackburn, who heads the CPQ, is striking. The Liberals' message seems to be focused on the economy and public finances, which is not necessarily to Rodriguez's advantage.

Indeed, there is a certain expectation among members that a candidate will emerge who will not necessarily be very spontaneous. The Liberals always have a game plan, even under an interim leader. It's a bit like the arrival of Bourassa in the 70s. Blackburn's future candidacy is not a foregone conclusion, but it seems almost certain.

In short, we're expecting an earthquake in the QLP and it's called Blackburn. It won't be good news for Pablo in particular. To sum up, I'll leave the last word to Abdelfadel:

[TRANSLATION] "He [Blackburn] eventually left the PLQ, but the PLQ never left him, and neither did the people he met there."