The announcement of Blackburn's withdrawal from the QLP leadership race came as a bombshell. Previously, his candidacy had been seen as a wave already in motion. This brings us to a fork in the road for the Liberals: they can rally behind Pablo, or they can go in search of a new candidate with experience as a minister in a Charest or Couillard government. If there are no volunteers, the leadership door will seem wide open for Rodriguez. Are there enough candidates and members who want nothing to do with Pablo? I doubt it. Rodriguez is now the candidate we expect to become leader by default. We'll see about the others, but an anti-Pablo wall doesn't appear to be in the cards.
For Pablo, the question remains whether there will be new candidates. If the answer is No, he'll be on his way to winning the leadership, but we can't talk about a real race, given the party's political reality on the ground. Essentially, the QLP is not a party of the regions or the Capitale-Nationale. Rodriguez will have a lot of work to do to broaden the party's base outside the Montreal region. However, a recent Léger poll shows the Liberals, under his leadership, in the lead with 28%, and the PQ in second place with 26%. Of course, the distribution of support for the Parti Québécois is certainly more encompassing.
On the PQ side, PSPP says he is not worried about a Rodriguez-led QLP. He says the Liberals are looking for [TRANSLATION] ‘personality and relevance’. On the other hand, one wonders why PSPP is talking publicly about Rodriguez if he has no concerns? The PQ is worried that Pablo could potentially broaden the QLP's support base among francophones in the coming months.
In short, support for the PQ and PSPP is dominant but fragile. A Rodriguez-led QLP could change that during the course of the campaign. Essentially, a QLP with Pablo as leader doesn't look like good news for the Parti Québécois' electoral plans. That's why PSPP is subtly running a fear campaign against Rodriguez.
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