Trump Thinks He Can Control Ukraine.

Remember how Trump famously said that he could end the Ukranian war in twenty-four hours? Absolute nonsense but that's classic Trump. He goes on and on about his so-called great relationship with Putin and suggests he could easily bring Zelenskyy to heel. Right.

I've got news for him. Ukrainians will fight for every inch of their soil whether Trump enthusiastically backs them or not. The big knock on Putin is if he was capable of winning the war, he would have done so by now. Two and a half years later and the Russians are no closer to a military victory. In fact, it's more or less a stalemate on the ground. Russia has shown itself to be a second-rate military power that does not have the demonstrable leadership required to win militarily. In fact, the upper levels of the officer corps have shown themselves to be grossly incompetent while the ranks are being decimated on the battlefield at an ever-alarming rate. In short, Putin's desperation forced him to accept North Korean troops, some of whom immediately defected upon arrival in theatre. 

Putin's so-called best efforts have only resulted in a military stalemate reminiscent of the trench warfare in WWI. Putin may think that with Trump's return he can provide for that. He may expect Trump to turn a blind eye to further military escalation in Ukraine or potential invasion of NATO territory. No one sees Putin winning under a WWIII scenario but there is plenty of consternation and trepidation in countries such as Poland, Romania and the Baltics. Putin is viewed, at best, as potentially irrational and no one can predict what might happen going forward. 

Meanwhile, Biden has approved ATACMS use against Russian targets in the country. Will Trump actually have the resolve to reverse this decision or the recent arrival of F16s in Ukraine? Time will tell but one thing is certain: should Russia attack NATO, Trump will have no choice but to come to Europe's rescue. In short, you can fight Russians by default on European soil or later on American territory, if it comes to that. Sadly, the fate of the free world rests more with Putin than with Trump.