It’s time to stop beating around the bush: we lost three MPs because they didn’t like the leader’s command-and-control style, nor the way he and the OLO managed relations with caucus. Full stop. Anyone who thinks that d’Entremont, Ma and Jeneroux joined the Liberals out of love for Carney and his government is deluding themselves. That’s bullshit. They switched to the Liberals because it was their only option to remain MPs over the long term.
Let’s make one thing clear from the outset: the CPC has absolutely no chance of winning in the ridings of University-Rosedale, Scarborough Southwest and Terrebonne. Recent polls suggest the Liberals will sweep all three ridings. Naturally, as I expected, Outhouse proved he knows nothing about Quebec politics and failed to block a CPC candidate in Terrebonne. That decision—or rather, the lack of one—guarantees a Liberal victory in the riding. Great going, guys! In politics, you’re only as good as your last call, and Outhouse has failed that test, along with Pierre.
As a result, Carney’s Liberals will finally secure a majority in the House of Commons and, in theory, control Parliament for the next four years. This means the moment of reckoning has arrived for Pierre: only nine of the latest polls show the Liberals with a double-digit lead. Meanwhile, Angus Reid gives them an eight-point edge. The best poll, from some time ago, placed Pierre at the top of the ‘best prime minister’ rankings, with 44% in favour. Today, Pierre’s rating stands at -59 per cent. Take a moment to let that sink in. And here’s the coup de grâce: 49 per cent of Canadians want him to resign, which of course he won’t do.
I commend Pierre for toning down his leadership style, being more open to flexibility and new ideas, and for his recent inclusive approach to media access. However, these admirable changes will not shift his poll numbers. It’s like switching from glasses to contact lenses. It doesn’t tip the scales in his favour.
So… If he wants any chance of making it through the next election—which will likely take place next fall, given that Carney and the Liberals are so power-hungry they’ll be aiming for an elected five-year majority mandate—he’ll need to publicly address his many shortcomings and commit to doing better in future. Outhouse won’t tell him that, but I will. Otherwise, his caucus will become even more reckless and frustrated, and that can only end with them dusting off the Reform Act and, ultimately, sending him down the same path as O’Toole. Given that his subordinates played an active role in ousting O’Toole, just like yours truly, it would be rather ironic if that ended up coming back like a boomerang to bite Pierre in the ass.
In short, Pierre, the months between now and next fall are your last chance to right the Conservative ship. Make the most of it as party leader, or you will inevitably disappear from that position on the political scene.
And to help all my fellow Conservatives digest the above, here is the latest Léger poll. Read it, preferably with a drink in hand.
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