New Hampshire: Let's Not Get Ahead Of Ourselves.

It's no surprise to any of you how much I despise Trump. But it's also true that I can't stand DeSantis either. However, it's a bit rich for Haley to now call this a two-person race before the New Hampshire primary. After all, she finished two points behind De Santis in Iowa.

Maybe she wipes the floor with DeSantis in NH. If so, then it really will be a two-person race for the nomination between the Orange POS and Haley. But let's not go there just yet. 

Des Moines Register Poll.

Is this a case of us not being able to see the forest but for the trees? I think so. To me, the numbers are misleading. First off, with Trump at 48%, every MAGA Republican is for Trump. Until they're not. The forest says Trump is under 50%. There's a meaning there and it could be significant. When Trump won the presidency, a lot of his vote was from shy or reluctant supporters.  Let's reverse engineer that: they say they're already rock solid for Trump but are they really? Maybe, maybe not.

Haley comes in at 20%, pushing Mister All 99 counties into third with DeSantis fading at 16%. Pretty much what I was expecting.

Then there's the weather: I still think Trump will take it but will it be over 50%? I don't think so.

Once we get to New Hampshire, can Haley win? I think she gets enough of an Iowa bounce to beat Trump in The Granite State.

Then it's a two-person race into South Carolina. They say they're for Trump there but we'll see.

Conventional wisdom is just that, so take about everything going forward with at least a grain of salt.

Christie Drops Out.

He's gone, before Iowa...

Methinks something is up with Haley smiling and DeSantis crying. As for the Orange Ape Idiot, fuck him.

UPDATED:

I want to write this before the CNN Iowa Debate, which begins in about an hour. Which way will it go? Will Haley go after DeSantis, or will DeSantis take her on from the get-go? DeSantis is ahead of Haley in Iowa, while the reverse is the case in New Hampshire.

I think DeSantis has to act like a drowning man tonight: he needs to jab Haley regularly and as hard as he can get away with. Otherwise, he's likely toast after the Iowa caucus next Monday. 

Here's what I'm wondering: will a polling shift take place in Iowa after tonight's debate? I think so. I feel like the sand is shifting in Haley's favour, even if Christie likely doesn't explicitly endorse her. Could be full of shit (like what I wrote about Pence) but I expect DeSantis to collapse in Iowa between tonight and on Monday. If I'm right, it's now a two-person race for all the marbles between Trump and Haley. Trump is supposed to win and become the nominee. In a two-horse race, incredible as it may seem right now, Trump is not necessarily a lock on the nomination. He likely still wins, but anything can happen in a two-person race. Haley no doubt is counting on exactly that. 

Fuck Off, Far-Right Morons.

As Reagan would say, there you go again: the far-right fools are at it again, trying to pin the tail on the donkey of another group as a whole for the sins of one person or a few. Fascist POS. First, it was immigrants for the so-called sins of economic migrants. Now, they've pounced following the Iowa shooting tragedy, where a young child was killed and others wounded by a gunman who later took his own life. Of course, that shooting needs to be condemned.

Dear Morons, this is how life works: there are approximately less than three million Trans People in the United States, versus 338.8 million other Americans. That's a ratio of less than 2% of the population. For those of you who insist on being idiots, give your head a shake. These far-right assholes want other people to go berserk and go out of their way to hurt Trans individuals. What the imbeciles conveniently and quite deliberately put aside is that 99% of shootings are committed by men, of which a huge preponderance are heterosexual. Does that mean we should be attacking or killing those men? Definitely not.

It blows my mind how so many people have nothing but space between those two ears...they can't think for themselves, much less critically. So, they take their cues from the American Hitler. Yes, sir or madam, that's definitely the direction that POS is headed. He just can't wait.

Ah, a second civil war is coming to the United States thanks to these far-right jerks. It's up to other Republicans to take back their party, but quite naturally, they won't even try until it's already much too late. This civil war will make the last one look like a walk in the park. Fortunately, I won't be there to witness the destruction of the United States and the loss of its remaining superpower status. All thanks to these far-right Yahoos. 

It's coming, and the far-right have only themselves to blame for the future annihilation of their country. Collective self-destruction courtesy of the latest Hitler and his sycophants. 

Fuck Off, Demon Seed.

As Reagan would say: there you go again [demon seed]. I am so sick of listening to that asshole spout lie after lie, day in and day out, potentially all the way to next November. This POS is way beyond ridiculous. It's amazing how people can fall for this bullshit from one of the dimmest bulbs ever to dishonour the field of politics. Way, way, way, beyond pathetic. If that fucker drops dead, you definitely won't see me crying. What a political disgrace. At least he's steadily earning his well-deserved place in Hell.

Come On, Step Up And Pay For My Trip To Jamaica!

Don't be a cheapskate. Pony up, I'm next. You know, at no cost.

And then don't forget to ask me about the quid pro quo. After all, it wouldn't be polite if I didn't return the favour: with some gift, appointment, contract or other largess of government. Like I said, it wouldn't be fair. Naturally, I'll gratefully see what I can do as soon as I get back! I'm just that kind of guy.

Netanyahu's Priorities: First, Second And Third.

The next opportunity to get to the promise land, to quote MLK, is 27 October 2026. That's the only definite in Israeli politics when legislative elections will be held. With that in mind, I would suggest that Netanyahu's plan is one, two, three.

FIRST: Political survival. Nothing comes ahead of this in Netanyahu's mind. Not the Gazan War or even Israeli and other foreign hostages. Bibi is all about staying in power as PM, and nothing he does is based on anything more significant than that. Notice how Gallant and Gantz were no-shows at Saturday's press conference. Netanyahu wanted them there, but they have bigger fish to fry and Bibi knows it. Each of them would like to replace him as prime minister. Tensions are rising over the war and hostages and with the Supreme Court 8-7 ruling that part of his judicial reform plan is unconstitutional, it's one more large thorn in Bibi's side. Nevertheless, Bibi is all about Bibi. That's how he survives. Polling, on the other hand, has not been kind, with up to 80% of Israelis wanting him to take personal responsibility for the war and resign. Significantly, only 64% want early Knesset elections, and Netanyahu is counting on that to stay in power. 

SECOND: War in Gaza. Major differences exist about tactics, the intensity of the fighting, Palestinian deaths, ceasefires, humanitarian pauses and non-precision munitions. Then there's the matter of who gets to rule Gaza post-Hamas? Netanyahu sees the war going on for "many more months", while Gallant and Gantz have their own ideas on all of the above. 

THIRD: Hostages. This is the wild-card. Granted that it's a net-positive for Israelis and especially families, but it isn't necessarily so for Bibi and his longstanding coalition partners. Potentially getting them all out is counterbalanced by why they were taken hostage in the first place. The law of hostage releases is one of diminishing political returns for him. Hamas and the other terrorist groups are not stupid. They know about the upward gradation scale. It's one thing to trade hostages for juveniles or low-priority prisoners in Israeli jails. It's quite another to release bona fide terrorists or murderers in order to secure the remaining hostages' release. 

The last thing to take into account, of course, is the nature of coalition-building in the multi-party Knesset. In most cases, governing coalitions follow seat changes in legislative elections. Put another way, it's likely going to be exceedingly difficult to oust Netanyahu as prime minister without resorting to early elections first and that is definitely not a given at this stage, if ever. So...Bibi may be able to hang on until fall 2026, unless Likud demands that he resigns, which is unlikely. 

Netanyahu, quite certainly, is a wounded duck. But everything is in the distinction. What he's not is a dead duck, and that is not inconsequential in Israeli politics. Don't count Bibi out just yet.