MAGA's October Surprise For Trump.

They are fucking done now. What happened in New York at Madison Square Garden was a racist disgrace. It's OVER for Trump after this insanity. They screwed themselves six ways from Sunday. And Amen to that! Thank God. 

For Warren.

Warren writes: 

"Ever have one of those days where you feel like the future of NATO, Ukraine, Taiwan, free trade and humanity itself is in the hands of 70 million fucking idiots who want to vote for a racist criminal with dementia?

I’m having one of those days."

Warren,

I'm highly confident we'll win. I'm serene and unbothered although understandably nervous. The first Trump administration was a political and moral abomination. POS Trump has only got much worse since then. I confidently believe that decency, respect, fair play, probity, compassion and human kindness are with the Democrats, as our Lord expects from each of us. In short, God will never allow that asshole to win the presidency again.

Now to your points: WWI and WWII were not existential in nature. WWIII would be. God does not want this planet blown all to Hell thanks to this cowardly fool, who proudly sits in Putin's pocket. 

Remember how our Lady spoke about the consecration of Russia to her immaculate heart? In some form and with respect for the Orthodox faith, it's coming. Mary will see to that.

Good inevitably triumphs over evil every time so Putin is done at the end. Xi, for his part, is smart enough not to take on the United States because he knows he'll lose if he does. He wants the CCP to stay in power forever. That won't and can't happen if Taiwan is invaded. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia each have explicit defence agreements with Taiwan, or indirect military ties through a third party.

The Trump cult will not prevail. 

 

Who Do You Think The Slient Majority Is With?

Last time, it was with Biden. Before that, Trump. Are they now with Harris or have they returned to the Trump fold, all these years later?

My gut tells me they're with Harris and that it won't even be close. We'll see.

KinsellaCast 333.

Warren,

-There should be a mechanism incorporated into Public Safety which would allow for review of admittance requests of foreign speakers who may or may not have committed hate speech. That's the only possible way to keep these types of people out.

-They can still take Trudeau down in a non-confidence vote. He says he won't prorogue. He WILL when the heat gets existential.

-When will my party get a brain? I get it that Pierre won't get a security clearance. God knows why? But the other way to skin that cat is to reveal the names in Parliament -- right there in the House of Commons under parliamentary privilege. Hello! That script can be written in five minutes in such a way as the Speaker will not get wind of it until the end when it's too late for the Liberals. 

-Samidoun is done. Period. Lawyers or no lawyers.

-NATO will not collapse. They now have a front-loaded deployment strategy in case Russians come across that border. And if they do invade, even an idiot like Trump can't just sit there and do nothing. The United States is in, whether Trump likes it or not.

Kamala's Kloser Is The Wrong Message.

Up to this point, I've predicted a Harris landslide given my belief that the polls are way off. But what has me worried, to some extent, is Harris' closure: calling Trump unserious, deranged, unhinged and basically an asshole. All of this is true, but it's the wrong closer in my book. 

I also take issue with Carville's view that the Constitution needs to be her closing message. Nope, nada, nyet.

It has to be the improving economy, but Harris needs to tell us how her future administration would be markedly different from Biden's. Harris's main mistake so far has been her misguided loyalty to Biden. She needs to put serious daylight between her and Biden. Without doing that, it will put her momentum in jeopardy.

Some think by failing to do so that she has blown the election. I disagree. But the margin of victory will be largely based on her coming off as not being Biden or Biden II. Her team must recognize that now and course correct in the last eight days of the campaign.

The Demon Seed League Meets Regularly.

Surprise, surprise...

These guys are the best con artists on planet Earth.

2024: Warren Is Coming Around.

GOTV will win this election for Harris, with record numbers voting in advanced polls, by mail or at drop boxes. Trump is literally shitting his pants and desperate for his supporters to use all of those voting methods, which he previously denounced ever since 2016. In their heart of hearts, they know they've already blown it. As I said from the start, a Harris landslide is on the way for two reasons: firstly, national polls were off in 2016 while regional and battleground polls were wrong in 2020. And then there's this: with ever shifting demographics, the Electoral College is steadily moving away from a built-in Republican advantage. Biden proved that last time. My bet is that Harris will do even better than Biden did. That's the only part of my overall call that I consider gutsy. In my book, Harris winning the popular vote in a blast is already a foregone conclusion. 

Now Is Finally The Time To Use An Opposition Day For A Non-Confidence Motion.

As you know, I've been critical of Pierre for going with two non-confidence motions that were destined to fail before the votes were counted.

BUT now, the political dynamic has totally changed: we've got over twenty Liberal MPs who are disgruntled and pissed off that Mr.WonderfulTM has assured all of them of his continued leadership. These MPs know that the party under Trudeau probably will be decimated in the next election. In fact, they will likely do even worse than Ignatieff did.

The dissident MPs have thrown down a marker and now they have to do something with it. Basically, they have only two choices: they can bolt from caucus and vote non-confidence, or if they really have the guts, they can remain as Liberal MPs and still vote non-confidence. If they do either, Trudeau and his semi-competents are gone.

So, all of this bodes well for a non-confidence motion. The only caveat is whether the Bloc will come along. If the BQ does, an early election will be in the bag.

Revolt Against Trudeau: Far From Finished.

Trudeau and Telford think they have this in the bag after a raucous caucus meeting. They don't. The +30 MPs won't be backing down. Trudeau has until the end of the month to leave. If he doesn't, then it's Miller time (I couldn't resist this double entendre) for the dissident MPs. Most of them will leave the Liberal caucus and likely sit as independents. That's when things will really get interesting: what will they do on the next Conservative non-confidence motion which is coming soon. If they vote with the opposition parties, then this government is done for. 

They have the big stick. Trudeau has got nothing. They won't be intimidated. So, get ready for round two because it's on the way fast.

Meanwhile, Carney and Clark are spreading the word. As soon as Trudeau is gone, they're in as far as a leadership race is concerned. You know what they say about new brooms. They sweep the floor clean. In short, any aspirants in Trudeau's cabinet have zero chance as soon as these two announce their respective runs for the leadership.

It'll be more than fun watching Trudeau trying to box +30 MPs at once. He won't win this time. Putting out the garbage is coming. 

Can You Say Carney And Clark?

What do they both know that we don't? Does it mean Warren is right after all and that he's finally going? 

New Brunswick Proves Conventional Wisdom Is Bullshit.

Remember all that bullshit that if Trump wins that it would help Trudeau? Trudeau was unpopular if not almost detested in New Brunswick and to no one's surprise, Team Holt, not Team Liberal won.

New Brunswickers disliked Trudeau but they were even more sick of Higgs. So, expect the exact same kind of syndrome in the next federal election. People want Trudeau gone, period. So, Pierre wins and wins big, even if Trump wins, which by the way he WON'T.

New Brunswick: Higgs Doesn't Play Nice Even In His Own Sandbox.

Looks like the PCs are going down. Let's see if Higgs loses his own riding.

UPDATED: It's a Liberal majority and Higgs right now is running second in his riding.

UPDATED: Higgs has lost his seat. That speaks for itself doesn't it?

Next Federal Election: Will The CPC Win With 20-22 Points?

Maybe but probably not. Why? Simply because a day is an eternity in politics. That's the golden rule. So, what we see today is not likely to be what we see on election night. Right now, the CPC looks like a lead pipe cinch but we could come in with fewer seats than currently projected. Issues matter and sometimes they break for us and sometimes against us. In other words, nothing is preordained in stone, even at this point. Pierre no doubt will remember that and take nothing for granted.

KinsellaCast 332.

Warren,

-Victoria is Victoria. Ottawa is Ottawa. There will be some correlation but the next federal election in BC will not be a copycat of the provincial results.

-Trump will not win.

-Trudeau won't reward dissident MPs. Only suckups.

-Poilièvre doesn't look good on Chinese foreign interference. But he won't budge on it. But then neither does Trudeau. 

-Trudeau came off as strong on the Indian thing. But 99% of Canadians missed it. 

-Poilièvre also comes off as strong on Samidoun. Trudeau looks hypocritical at the very least.

-Trudeau has a political death wish. Pretty much sums things up.

  

Who Won The BC Election?

That's an easy one: there is only one winner and they're called the Greens. The other two parties lost. Neither likely can form government without the Greens and it doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out where this is going.

The two other parties have some positives: for the incumbent NDP, they're one seat ahead of the Conservatives and they won the popular vote. So what. This seat count is a repudiation of the NDP. It very much feels like a last gasp. The Conservatives seemingly came from almost nowhere to form more than likely the official opposition which is also an achievement. But enough of British Columbians voted other ways to deny them the crown. So, it's not a win for them either. 

Eby sounds conciliatory and humbled. He should. He also looks like a guy who knows that the fix is in if he can convince the Greens. Rustad on the other hand is still all fire and bluster promising to topple a potential NDP government at the earliest opportunity: that could potentially go great for Conservatives or be a total disaster. He'll have to take his cue from British Columbians. He had better not cross them if he wants to form government in the future.

So, in essence, both parties lost. One needs to be propped up to potentially survive and the other just couldn't get there. Nothing to boast about for either the left or the right. It ended up as nothing more than a political dog's breakfast. No wonder the Greens are all smiles. 

Old Mushroom Head.

Is Trump really trying to negotiate a second NDA with Stormy Daniels? What possible reason could he have for doing that...

And then there's Arnold Palmer's you know what. Obviously, one of the most important things to campaign on in this election. It's right up there for all to see. Let's close with the saddest part of all: Trump didn't reference his own in that important campaign speech. I guess his doesn't measure up. Maybe he should bring back Loomer to weigh in on this critical controversy. Off the deep end Trump goes, to no one's surprise.

Leak: U.S. Intel On Israel And Iran.

Well, this is a problem. An intelligence leak of top secret documents surrounding American surveillance of Israel regarding their attack plans against Iran, which is pending. 

Some suspect that an Iranian mole is operating in a branch of American intelligence. Or it could also be someone who paid off an intelligence officer for a tip-off on what Israel has planned. And then there's the truly scary part: what if this is a Five Eyes leak...hopefully not. 

Trudeau: Warren Tries Again!

Warren is trying again to get this Prime Minister to see reason and leave, both in the best interest of the country and his former party. I've got to say that I admire his persistence, though it's unfortunately probably in vain.

Trudeau is the Canadian Trump -- it's all about Trudeau and nothing else -- it's about what Trudeau wants, not what Canadians want. Trudeau doesn't give a shit what Canadians think. His overly massaged ego and inflated sense of pride want a kick at the can known as Poilièvre. No one in Canada thinks Trudeau can beat the former in the next election but Justin thinks he can! Well, theoretically at least it's possible.

On Wednesday as the Liberals caucus, the dissidents will try to get Trudeau to go. He won't voluntarily given that at least a plurality of caucus is not yet prepared to force him out, as incredible as that may sound. Some will be bought off with newly minted cabinet posts while others will have all the strength of a tower of JelloTM. So...the dissident MPs have their work cut out for them, even with the closet support of several hypocritical cabinet members who smile in Justin's face while yielding the knife in the direction of his back. Sound familiar? Think back to Chrétien and the power-hungry Martinites. 

Now, let's get real: there's a reason why you quickly squandered your first government, the majority one. You and your PMO foolishly made promises to Kinsella and then reneged on them. Not smart. You could have had one of the best if not the BEST war-roomer in Canada running things. But No, your guys and gals were smarter and more politically savvy than Warren. Right...in short, without Kinsella, you and your party were doomed to minority status, period. And I'll go further, but for the ineptness of Scheer and later O'Toole, you probably would have been out of power in 2019.

And now that your party is basically at death's door, you still won't apologize to Kinsella and ask him to take the reins, provided he's still willing to save your sorry ass. Can anyone be more stupid than Trudeau? Apparently not. 

Again, I admire Warren's tenacity and good, common sense. But that seemingly will never work on a Trudeau. Justin has made his bed and will now get to lie in it unless a bunch of signatures on two pages somehow manages to rid the Liberals of an overstaying liability. 

The Trillionaire Offers YOU Crumbs To Sign His Trump Petition.

Ha, ha, ha! Too funny. Boy, are they ever getting desperate. They know it's already over for Trump. Why isn't Musk offering MAGA a thousand dollars each to sign? It's not as if he can't afford it! LOL.

RMS Trump, down she goes.

Revolt Against Trudeau: Politico Drops A Bomb Shell.

You remember that I predicted this. So here it is:

"Disgruntled MPs have refrained from abandoning the Liberals to sit as independents, or from voting against government bills to tank the party from the inside. And while no Cabinet minister has spoken out, several are said to be encouraging the efforts to get Trudeau out."[Emphasis added.]

Many say it's far too late to move against Trudeau. I disagree. After all, there's absolutely no prospect of an early election. Go for the gusto and see what happens. You're already in the subbasement, so there's nowhere for the party to go but up. But remember if Trudeau feels he's likely going down, he'll prorogue to save his sorry ass in a New York minute.

UPDATED: More fun and games to come when Trudeau shuffles his cabinet a second time shortly. If the PMO gets wind, and they likely will, of the names of dissident ministers, they'll be G-O-N-E in that shuffle. 

If You Only Read One Of My Posts On This Blog Read This One.

Well, surprise, surprise, the national polls were largely OK in 2016 but regional polls in the battleground states were way off: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump made huge inroads that won him the presidency.

Move forward to 2020: the national polls overrepresented Biden's support level while other polls were off in swing states: Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and also in Republican-leaning states, Montana, Indiana and Missouri.

So, to some extent, pollsters will get it wrong this time too. My money is on an overrepresentation of Trump support in battleground states meaning Trump will do less well, and likely much less well, in crucial states than projected. Translation: that will cost him the presidency.  

Rutte Confirms Ukraine Will Join NATO.

It's about time. I've been arguing for this since February 2022. Thank God the Russians are so inept otherwise, Putin would have overrun all of Ukraine by now. 

NATO is still leading from behind. Set a fucking date and make it happen now.

They're Voting In Advanced Polls Like Mad Because...

They're totally sick of Trump and his face. They want to get rid of Trump for good politically. End of story. That's why the Harris landslide is well on its way.

Harris Shows Her Metal On Fox.

Harris sure gave as good as she got. She didn't back down one inch. This is great news for her campaign. Independents will love it. One more step on her way to an election victory. 

Kalshi Betting.

Trump: 56%

Harris: 44%

Electoral College.

Harris: 226

Trump: 219

Needed to win: 270

Liberal MP Revolt.

Can you say Sean Casey in addition to Wayne Long? Expect more people to say publicly that they back this campaign to oust Trudeau. It's the drip, drip, drip theory in action which means eventually that Trudeau will be G-O-N-E.

It's no longer IF. It's now a matter of when.

Montréalaise: Grab A Handy English Language Dictionary.

Montréalaise,

I suggest you look up an open relationship.

I could go further. If you don't already know, check with almost all of Ottawa or most of Montréal.

To ask the question is to answer it.

Definitely won't be sending Justin or Mélanie my best regards...

Trudeau Is Packing All The Slots.

CSIS. CBC-Radio Canada.

Is Warren right? Is he finally leaving?

Re: Kinsella: My Political Gut.

Warren,

With respect, I think your gut is wrong but nonetheless it could be right! Here's why: polling is no longer a reliable model given that its methodology remains anchored around landlines which most people no longer have. Most voters have a cell/mobile and likely most don't answer phone numbers they don't recognize. Then comes the factor where people lie to pollsters to some extent. And internet polling is not credible as it's usually skewed.

Now to remarks from others:

Pedant,

Harris has more policy than Trump. She largely reflects Biden policy but has gone beyond Biden on any number of issues. However, there are no policy initiatives to this point. As for Trump, all he's got are concepts of nothing.

Harper didn't have a 100-day plan. He had 4-5 broad themes and stuck to that. 

Douglas,

Factor in the advanced polling in Georgia and other states. We all know that heavy advanced polling usually means it's a vote for change. Little chance of it being for Trump. Harris remains the change candidate since she has never served in that office before. Agreed she needs to separate herself more from Biden and put loyalty to him aside in the next three weeks but again, high turnout likely will be in her favour meaning she's still ahead and will win. If all states that allow advanced polling are like Georgia, she wins in a landslide. POS sinks his campaign even more every time he opens his mouth. Now he's prepared to use troops against American citizens. Help that asshole it will not.

EHWAL,

Harris is leading in the Electoral College. But agreed, IF it becomes the next Bush v. Gore, the Supreme Court will once again find a way to throw the election to Trump.

Sean,

Who do you think wins this election on turnout? In my book, it's Harris.

RKJ,

Agreed to some extent when you factor in for Harris sexism and misogyny. As for Trump, everyone but his supporters hate his guts and that is over fifty percent of the electorate. Exception to your point: women writ large who will vote massively for Harris on abortion and a woman's right to choose.

Trump: Brain Dead Moron From Within.

Trump just can't help himself. He insists on sinking his own campaign. So have at it bibi brain.

KinsellaCast 331.

Warren,

-Poilièvre is on the right side of this issue. But he also condemns hate against any other group. 

-I'm shocked, shocked, shocked to find out that any Liberal would put herself or himself first, ahead of everyone else who is the subject of hate speech. No wonder Trudeau wants to stick around.

-The revolt needs to take on steam rapidly. Otherwise, it'll peter out. 

-Sitting on a warrant. Most people wouldn't do so without kicking it upstairs first. 

-Shooting up schools. What are the TPS and other forces doing routinely as preventative measures and where are the cameras?

-Trudeau is the only Liberal who thinks he can beat Poilièvre. The rest of them are smarter than he is.

-When you don't release the names, you quite deliberately taint those you deem to remain unknown. This rises to the level of a government-tossing event. That's why the names are verboten.

-Few of them get through but some do. That's why Biden is sending the THAAD system. But that won't be perfect either. Overwhelming them remains the name of the game. 

-Bevan. I hear he wasn't even close to being the PMO's first choice. Really? Is that accurate?

-There's strength and cover in numbers. Not there yet and may or may not get there. One assumes they'll release the signatures if they can get a plurality of MPs to sign it.

-Delacourt must have experienced a wave of joy and excitement while writing that piece. Does she still miss Martin?

-Women don't want to kiss Pierre but neither do men.

-Me too. I expected prorogation a while back. 

-Jagmeet hates Pierre's guts. So...they'll never vote with us. Period.

-The last segment of the KinsellaCast went AWOL.

Why Trump Is Already Done As Dinner.

Let's start with the obvious: consistently, the most effective Trump opponent has been Trump himself. By a country mile. He's been far better at taking down the Trump campaign than Harris, Walz or the Democrats. This guy is bound and determined to show every American who he is and that's a huge gain for Democrats.

Add to the mix the fact that Trump's advisers have been begging him to stay on a winning message: the economy, inflation, cost of living, etc. But No, not Trump. He's decided that he's going to win the election by demonizing immigrants and treating them as sub-human. Yeah, always a winning political strategy...

Make no mistake, immigration is right at the top as a campaign issue and preoccupation of voters but almost all want immigrants to be treated with dignity and basic human respect. Not Trump.

Moving on to point two: Trump's rapidly deteriorating mental health: with each passing day, he becomes more unhinged and delusional. Trump is proving to the world that he's no longer fit mentally to serve as president or commander-in-chief. It's obvious to all sentient voters. It partially explains why his stands begin to empty mid-speech. Lots of his supporters recognize that he's already headed off the deep end and so they leave quietly.

Then there's the key reason why Trump will lose: it's called polling that is totally off the mark. There's no way that this race is competitive and within the margin of error for two reasons. First off, most people have cell phones and they likely don't answer numbers they don't recognize. And then there's the fact that internet polling is notoriously unreliable as the poll tends to skew in the direction of the website or v-blog that's doing the so-called polling.

So, add it all up and it means that Trump is about to LOSE BIG. They say we all make our own bed in life and Trump certainly has. A Harris landslide is on the way, mostly thanks to Trump.

The QLP has a big problem.

When the election is held in 2026, whoever the Liberal leader is, the party will have a huge problem: its likely vote will be limited to the island of Montreal and the Outaouais region. In addition, their vote will probably only be very efficient in those ridings. In other words, they're likely to win in Liberal ridings with an extremely high number of votes - a wasted vote that cannot be duplicated or transferred to other ridings they don't hold or are unlikely to win. In short, the first-past-the-post system puts the Quebec Liberals at an extreme disadvantage compared with the Parti Québécois, who are leading in the polls, and the current Coalition Avenir Québec government.

Add to the mix the candidate perceived possibly as the next party leader, and nothing changes: it's true that Pablo Rodriguez, according to one poll, would take the Liberals from seventeen to twenty-eight percent, which would theoretically put the party in the lead in a three-way race. But once again, it's the efficiency of the vote in the various ridings that will determine who forms the next government, and right now that is not in the party's favour. 

As a result, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the PQ will have a considerable advantage in the regions, which could enable the party to win a plurality of seats in Quebec, or even a majority government if Legault remains as CAQ leader.

So there's no doubt that Pablo's arrival on the scene as a possible QLP leader has muddied the waters. If he becomes leader, it will open up an opportunity for the QLP but will probably not lead to forming a future government. The CAQ is probably heading for a free fall unless Legault leaves, but that won't benefit the QLP. The PQ is best placed to reap the rewards of dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the CAQ. But never say never. Just look at what Trudeau did for the federal Liberals in 2015. In theory, nothing is impossible, even in Quebec politics. 

Le PLQ a un gros problème.

Lors des élections de 2026, quel que soit le chef libéral, le parti aura un énorme problème : son vote probable se limitera à l'île de Montréal et à la région de l'Outaouais. De plus, son vote ne sera probablement très efficace que dans ces circonscriptions. En d'autres termes, ils sont susceptibles de gagner dans les circonscriptions libérales avec un nombre extrêmement élevé de voix - un vote gaspillé qui ne peut être dupliqué ou transféré dans d'autres circonscriptions qu'ils ne détiennent pas ou qu'ils ont peu de chances de remporter. En bref, le système uninominal à un tour place les libéraux québécois dans une position extrêmement désavantageuse par rapport au Parti Québécois, qui mène dans les sondages, et à l'actuel gouvernement de la Coalition Avenir Québec.

Ajoutez à cela le candidat possiblement perçu comme le prochain chef du parti, et rien ne change : il est vrai que Pablo Rodriguez, selon un sondage, ferait passer les libéraux de dix-sept à vingt-huit pour cent, ce qui placerait théoriquement le parti en tête dans une course à trois. Mais encore une fois, c'est l'efficacité des votes dans les différentes circonscriptions qui déterminera qui formera le prochain gouvernement, et pour l'instant, ce n'est pas en faveur du parti. 

Ainsi, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon et le PQ auront un avantage considérable dans les régions, ce qui pourrait permettre au parti de remporter une pluralité de sièges au Québec, voire un gouvernement majoritaire si Legault reste à la tête de la CAQ.

Il ne fait donc aucun doute que l'arrivée de Pablo sur la scène en tant que possible chef du PLQ a brouillé les cartes. S'il devient chef, cela ouvrira une opportunité pour le PLQ mais ne mènera probablement pas à la formation d'un futur gouvernement. La CAQ se dirige probablement vers une chute libre à moins que Legault ne parte, mais cela ne profitera pas au PLQ. Le PQ est le mieux placé pour récolter les fruits de l'insatisfaction et de la désillusion à l'égard de la CAQ. Mais il ne faut jamais dire jamais. Il suffit de regarder ce que Trudeau a fait pour les libéraux fédéraux en 2015. En théorie, rien n'est impossible, même en politique québécoise. 

They Pulled Thatcher Down.

Howe, Heseltine and even Major to a more opportune and well-timed Machiavellian extent. So, Trudeau needs to take nothing for granted. The fight is on now. Will he win? Probably not.

National Resource Stocks Are Moving.

The rally has now moved beyond the gold and silver stock majors. It's now into the intermediate names and selective small and nanocaps. The oil and gas stocks are also moving. Ditto for uranium and copper names.

More importantly, in my view, many lithium companies are taking off in the wake of the Arcadium takeover bid by Rio Tinto. 

Les libéraux s'en prennent enfin à Trudeau.

Mon Dieu, nous vivons soudain une époque formidable. J'adore les révoltes contre des chefs, ayant moi-même participé à deux révoltes : contre Harper et O'Toole. C'est le moment où les députés et d'autres personnes réalisent enfin la nécessité de faire passer non seulement leur parti en premier, mais aussi les intérêts du pays en premier. Aucun parti ne devrait vouloir d'un perdant comme chef, ni soutenir un perdant qui n'était pas un perdant auparavant. Point final.

The Star, CBC et CTV rapportent qu'un document composé uniquement de signatures de députés circule à Ottawa depuis que le Premier ministre est à l'étranger. Ils rapportent qu'au moins et probablement plus de trente députés du Canada atlantique, de l'Ontario et d'ailleurs l'ont signé. 

À leur décharge, ils n'ont pas approché les phoques dressés, c'est-à-dire les membres du cabinet qui vendraient naturellement leurs mères et leurs pères si Trudeau leur demandait de le faire. Mais n'oubliez pas tout le conseil des ministres pour l'instant. Si le mouvement prend de l'ampleur, un ou plusieurs ministres rompront les rangs et appuieront la pétition tôt ou tard. C'est inévitable, surtout lorsque la puissante Telford commencera à répliquer durement, ce qui ne manquera pas d'arriver.

Les députés dissidents savent maintenant deux choses : c'est maintenant ou jamais et, une fois qu'ils ont commencé, ils doivent s'attaquer agressivement à Trudeau sur le plan politique ou ils seront brûlés à jamais dans un futur gouvernement libéral. Cet effort doit décoller et faire boule de neige le plus rapidement possible.

Même s'ils échouent, ils peuvent encore gagner en empruntant une autre voie. Je leur laisse le soin d'y réfléchir eux-mêmes. Mais une fois que c'est fait, Trudeau est parti en cinq minutes.

En tant que conservateur, quel est l'impact sur mon chef ? Tout d'abord, Pierre ne peut plus se contenter de remarques à l'emporte-pièce. À l'avenir, chacune de ses déclarations devra être mûrement réfléchie et extrêmement disciplinée. Dans la perspective d'un intérim ou d'un nouveau chef libéral l'année prochaine, une révolte réussie risque de changer la donne. Pierre doit être informé à 150 % sur toutes les questions et ne jamais dire ou faire quoi que ce soit qui puisse soudainement donner aux libéraux une ouverture qui pourrait conduire à un renversement dans les sondages et à la dissipation possible de notre avance de vingt points. C'est aussi simple que cela : être discipliné et rester fidèle à son message. Sinon, à chaque erreur politique, nous réduirons notre avance. 

Aucun conservateur ne veut remplacer Trudeau. La raison en est douloureusement évidente : si Trudeau part ou est poussé vers la sortie avec succès, les prochaines élections seront au moins compétitives pour les libéraux. Ce n'est pas ce que nous voulons. En résumé, Pierre doit se donner à fond jusqu'aux prochaines élections. Finis les coups bas et les artifices qui sont voués à l'échec. Nous devons toujours être perçus comme la seule alternative sérieuse à Trudeau, rien de moins. 

Restez donc à l'écoute. Le plaisir et les jeux ne font que commencer. Ce devrait être un grand moment pour tous ! 

The Liberals are finally going after Trudeau.

My God, these are great times all of a sudden. I love leadership revolts, having been involved in two myself: against Harper and O'Toole. It's the moment when MPs and others finally realize the need to put not just their party first, but the interests of the country first. No party should want a loser as leader, nor support a loser who wasn't a loser before. Full stop.

The Star, CBC and CTV report that a document consisting entirely of MPs' signatures has been circulating in Ottawa since the Prime Minister has been abroad. They report that at least and probably more than thirty MPs from Atlantic Canada, Ontario and elsewhere have signed it. 

To their credit, they haven't approached the trained seals, i.e. cabinet members who would naturally sell out their mothers and fathers if Trudeau asked them to. But don't write off the whole cabinet just yet. If this movement gains momentum, one or more ministers will break ranks and support the petition sooner or later. It's inevitable, especially when the mighty Telford starts to hit back hard, which is bound to happen.

The dissident MPs now know two things: it's now or never and, once they've started, they have to aggressively take down Trudeau politically or they'll be burned forever in a future Liberal government. This effort needs to take off and snowball as quickly as possible.

Even if they fail, they can still win by taking another route. I'll leave it to them to think about it themselves. But once that's done, Trudeau's gone in five minutes.

As a Conservative, what impact does this have on my leader? First of all, Pierre can no longer make do with off-the-cuff remarks. In future, every statement he makes will have to be carefully thought through and extremely disciplined. With the prospect of an interim or new Liberal leader next year, a successful revolt is likely to be a game-changer. Pierre must be 150% informed on all issues and never say or do anything that might suddenly give the Liberals an opening that could lead to a reversal in the polls and the possible dissipation of our twenty-point lead. It's as simple as that: be disciplined and stay on message. Otherwise, with each policy mistake, we'll reduce our lead. 

No Conservative wants to replace Trudeau. The reason is painfully obvious: if Trudeau leaves or is successfully pushed out, the next election will at least be competitive for the Liberals. That's not what we want. In short, Pierre must give it his all until the next election. No more cheap tricks and phoney gimmicks that are doomed to failure. We must always be seen as the only serious alternative to Trudeau, nothing less. 

So stay tuned. The fun and games are just beginning. It should be a great time for all! 

Poilièvre And Lantsman Call For Designating The Houthis and Samidoun Terrorist Organizations.

Pierre has found his foreign policy footing on this issue. No question about it. The vast majority of Canadians agree with this. Meanwhile, the Liberals dither...

Pablo: Léger/Le Journal/TVA Poll.

The least we can say is that this poll gives Rodriguez hope in the QLP leadership race. The poll shows that Pablo is currently in the lead and would win back thirty per cent of the vote, well ahead of the other declared candidates. For the moment, Pablo is seen as the leading candidate in the race. There's no denying that. On the other hand, many Liberals are waiting things out as it relates to the current candidates: forty-five percent of Liberals are on hold, probably for another star candidate. We'll see what happens next. One wonders whether, with not just a bounce but also clear momentum for Pablo, any other well-known Liberal is ready to get into the race? Former ministers and current MNAs seem to be looking for a white knight. Personally, I don't see one on the horizon. In any case, it's good news for Pablo. 

Now, it seems fair to say that Rodriguez's support among francophones is surprising: Pablo might receive the support of twenty percent of these voters if he were the leader, but this is certainly not a seduction of Francophones, far from it. On the other hand, it's an improvement and a good first step. I agree. 

As for a real three-way battle, the PQ remains in the lead with thirty-two percent of support, far ahead of the other parties. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the man to beat if an election were held today. The arrival of Pablo at the head of the QLP would certainly give the electorate a sense of renewal, but to what extent? Marc Tanguay is more popular with voters who vote for the other parties. But Rodriguez is far ahead among Liberals: he has the support of twenty-eight percent of dyed-in-the-wool Liberals.

In short, Pablo seems to be the man for the job, at least as far as the Liberals are concerned. In the absence of other candidates, he has the wind in his sails, up to a point. But, for the moment, Rodriguez remains the creature of his own activists and supporters. The QLP still has a long way to go, even if Pablo becomes the party's next leader.

As for his chances, I'll put them in the context of the Ontario Liberals: Pablo is already perceived as Sandra Pupatello in many quarters. Time will tell whether he remains Pupatillo, or truly becomes the next Kathleen Wynne. 

Pablo : Sondage Léger/Le Journal/TVA.

Le moins que l'on puisse dire, c'est que ce sondage donne de l'espoir à Rodriguez dans la course à la direction du PLQ. Le sondage montre que Pablo est actuellement en tête et qu'il récupérerait trente pour cent des voix, loin devant les autres candidats déclarés. Pour l'instant, Pablo est considéré comme le principal candidat dans la course. C'est indéniable. D'autre part, un certain nombre de libéraux exercent un droit de réserve par rapport aux candidats actuels : quarante-cinq pour cent des libéraux attendent, probablement, un autre candidat vedette. Nous verrons ce qui se passera ensuite. On peut se demander si, avec non seulement un rebond mais aussi une dynamique claire pour Pablo, quelqu'un d'autre de renom est prêt à revenir dans la course ? D'anciens ministres et des députés actuels semblent chercher un chevalier blanc. Personnellement, je n'en vois pas à l'horizon. En tout cas, c'est une bonne nouvelle pour Pablo. 

Maintenant, il semble juste de dire que le soutien de Rodriguez parmi les francophones est surprenant : Pablo pourrait recevoir le soutien de vingt pour cent de ces électeurs s'il était le leader, mais ce n'est certainement pas une séduction des francophones, loin de là. D'un autre côté, c'est une bonne amélioration et un bon premier pas. Je suis d'accord. 

Pour ce qui est d'une véritable bataille à trois, le PQ reste en tête avec trente-deux pour cent d'appuis, loin devant les autres partis. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon demeure l'homme à battre si une élection avait lieu aujourd'hui. L'arrivée de Pablo à la tête du PLQ donnerait certainement un sentiment de renouveau à l'électorat, mais jusqu'à quel point ? Marc Tanguay est plus populaire auprès des électeurs qui votent pour les autres partis. Mais Rodriguez est loin devant chez les libéraux : il a l'appui de vingt-huit pour cent des libéraux convaincus.

Bref, Pablo semble être l'homme de la situation, du moins en ce qui concerne les libéraux. En l'absence d'autres candidats, il a le vent en poupe, jusqu'à un certain point. Mais, pour l'instant, Rodriguez reste la créature de ses propres militants et sympathisants. Le PLQ a encore beaucoup de chemin à faire, même si Pablo devient le prochain chef du parti.

Quant à ses chances, je les placerai dans le contexte des libéraux de l'Ontario : Pablo est déjà perçu comme Sandra Pupatello dans de nombreux milieux. Le temps nous dira s'il reste Pupatillo, ou s'il devient vraiment la prochaine Kathleen Wynne. 

Iran: Pierre Needs To Stick To Domestic Policy.

Pierre, Try to keep up. Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018. That was six years ago, plenty of time for Iran to develop more than one dirty bomb or crude nuclear device. Here's my prediction, Israel will DEFINITELY not attack Iranian nuclear installations and uranium-enriching facilities. Why? Because Mossad not only has confirmation that nuclear weapons exist but also knows how many have been produced to date. My guess: one to five.

So...the threat assessment vastly outweighs the advantages of attacking these targets. That's why Israel is taking its time in selecting targets before it strikes back. Netanyahu wants to do nothing in response that would encourage Iran to use the nuclear option. This option is likely limited to tactical battlefield weapons, which could conceivably be used against cities and towns.

Refineries and other oil and gas installations would likely be the target of choice in an Israeli counterstrike. 

And then there's the collective psychological profile of the leadership in Iran: why have they twice acted emboldened? Obviously, because they have insurance in the form of nuclear devices. 

As for Pierre's claim that the country is just itching to overthrow the mullahs, forget it. The Revolutionary Guard and VAJA have been instrumental in crushing at least two revolutions started by the people. The regime remains vulnerable but not sufficiently so that a future revolution would ultimately be successful, at least not in the medium term.    

Pablo: The authenticity of his nationalist credentials.

Pablo claims to be a Quebec nationalist within a federalist Canada. That's not a powerful argument, especially for someone who doesn't recognize the truths of Francophone and Quebec history. For Rodriguez, history should not be discussed in its proper context. Here is his response to a speech by Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon: [TRANSLATION] [He uses] "another level of language and introduces terms of violence" by talking about the sad history of the deportation of Francophones from Acadia and the execution of patriots by British forces. And Pablo goes further: for him, [TRANSLATION] "it is deeply disappointing and even worrying to hear these references to events that happened a long time ago."

Here's what St-Pierre Plamondon had to say: [TRANSLATION] "I'm always surprised to hear news commentators say that there's no intention behind this. It's about forgetting recent history, like the unilateral patriation of the Canadian Constitution without Quebec, forgetting the work of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, forgetting what Francophones went through with deportations, executions, the ban on teaching in French. This regime has been constant throughout its history." Rodriguez is complicit in a climate of silence about the injustices suffered by our ancestors, whether in Nova Scotia, Manitoba or New Brunswick. For Pablo, these are old quarrels that don't seem to matter in today's federation.

Can we really claim that this attitude is that of a Quebec nationalist who takes to heart the concerns of the Canadian minority and the Quebec majority? Deliberately forgetting our history is not an attribute of someone who is naturally a Quebec nationalist. Frankly, it's far from convincing. 

Pablo : L'authenticité de sa fibre nationaliste.

Pablo se revendique nationaliste québécois dans un Canada fédéraliste. Ce n'est pas un argument de poids, surtout pour quelqu'un qui ne reconnaît pas les vérités de l'histoire francophone et québécoise. Pour Rodriguez, l'histoire ne doit pas être discutée dans son propre contexte. Voici sa réponse au discours du chef du Parti Québécois Paul St-Pierre Plamondon : [Il utilise] "un autre niveau de langage et introduit des termes de violence" en évoquant la triste histoire de la déportation des francophones de l'Acadie et de l'exécution des patriotes par les forces britanniques. Et Pablo va plus loin : pour lui, "il est profondément décevant et même inquiétant d'entendre ces références à des événements qui se sont produits il y a longtemps."

Voici ce qu'en dit St-Pierre Plamondon : "Je suis toujours surpris d'entendre les commentateurs de l'actualité dire qu'il n'y a pas d'intention derrière cela. Il s'agit d'oublier l'histoire récente, comme le rapatriement unilatéral de la Constitution canadienne sans le Québec, d'oublier le travail de Pierre Elliott Trudeau, d'oublier ce que les francophones ont vécu avec les déportations, les exécutions, l'interdiction de l'enseignement en français. Ce régime a été constant tout au long de son histoire." Rodriguez est complice d'un climat de silence sur les injustices subies par nos ancêtres, que ce soit en Nouvelle-Écosse, au Manitoba et au Nouveau-Brunswick. Pour Pablo, ce sont de vieilles querelles qui ne semblent pas avoir d'importance dans la fédération d'aujourd'hui.

Peut-on vraiment prétendre que cette attitude est celle d'un nationaliste québécois qui prend à cœur les préoccupations de la minorité canadienne et de la majorité québécoise ? Oublier délibérément notre histoire n'est pas un attribut de quelqu'un qui est naturellement nationaliste québécois. Franchement, c'est loin d'être convaincant.    

How To Spot Demon Seeds.

Start by looking in those eyes and you'll see it in a New York minute. Next, you'll spot their authoritarian nature and their lack of decency, empathy, kindness or compassion for their fellow human beings. Then you'll be exposed to their message of hate and envy against their political opponents. And, of course, the greatest indication of all is their constant pushing of lies and misinformation on all things. Finally, demon seeds have enormous money and power which they wield without regard for anyone other than themselves.

Now that you know who they are, you won't have trouble identifying them when you enter the voting booth. God is watching.

Israel And Symbolism.

Israel has pledged to respond to the recent Iranian attack in an unprecedented way. Can you say Monday, October 7, 2024?

Trump: Such A Fucking Loser!

It was bad enough when this idiot claimed that Taylor Swift had endorsed him but she hadn't. No wonder Trump now says he hates her.

But that fiasco wasn't good enough for this asshole: now he says that Jamie Dimon has endorsed him, which also is not true.

This moron needs therapy badly and as soon as possible.

Pablo: Increase in the old-age pension.

Pablo is now stuck. He voted FOR the Bloc Québécois motion. The motion was passed by the House of Commons with 181 votes in favour and 143 against. Is this the beginning of his nascent nationalist tendencies? He has just voted against the government and his former party. What will he do when the BQ proposes or supports a non-confidence motion against the Trudeau government? And there you have it. 

We can imagine Prime Minister Trudeau climbing the walls. What a betrayal... 

Pablo : Augmentation de la pension de vieillesse.

Pablo est maintenant coincé. Il a voté POUR la motion du Bloc Québécois. La motion a été adoptée par la Chambre des communes avec 181 voix pour et 143 contre. Est-ce le début de ses tendances nationalistes naissantes ? Il vient de voter contre son gouvernement et son ancien parti. Que fera-t-il lorsque le BQ proposera ou appuiera une motion de censure contre le gouvernement Trudeau ? Et voilà. 

On imagine le premier ministre Trudeau grimper aux murs. Quelle trahison...

For Warren: VEEP Candidate Debate.

Warren,

Didn't watch it because I can't stand Vance. I have no choice and have to watch asshole Trump debate but no need to watch this SOB.

الحرب الإسرائيلية-الإيرانية: كيف يمكن المساعدة وإلى أي مدى؟

 وقع اليوم هجوم إرهابي في تل أبيب على يد فلسطينيين أسفر عن مقتل ستة أشخاص وإصابة تسعة آخرين. وأعقب ذلك إطلاق إيران ما لا يقل عن 180 صاروخاً باليستياً ضد إسرائيل. 

إذًا، نحن نعرف الآن بعض الأمور: أولًا، إسرائيل وإيران في حالة حرب. هل هذه هي الطريقة التي نريدها نحن في الغرب أن تسير الأمور على هذا النحو، أم أن يدخل الشركاء في الشرق الأوسط في الحرب من كلا الجانبين محولين هذه الحرب إلى حرب إقليمية؟ والخيار الأخير هو أن تنخرط الولايات المتحدة والدول الغربية مباشرة في الحرب.

وبما أن هذه الحرب هي حرب بين قوة نووية بحكم القانون ودولة نووية بحكم الأمر الواقع، سيتعين على الغرب أن يكون حذراً للغاية في مدى انخراطه في هذا الصراع. وعلى الأرجح، سيتبع الغرب النموذج الأوكراني وسيقوم بإمداد إسرائيل عند الضرورة. ويبدو أن هذه هي الطريقة المعقولة للمضي قدمًا. لا يمكن للغرب أن يضع قوات برية مباشرة على الأرض في الشرق الأوسط في خضم هذا الصراع وإلا فإننا نخاطر بالانجرار إلى الحرب. وبعبارة أخرى، يمكن أن يؤدي التدخل الأمريكي المباشر إلى استدراج روسيا إلى جانب إيران.

يتساءل المرء عما إذا كان نتنياهو وخامنئي مسرورين. عند التفكير، ربما لا. 

מלחמת ישראל-איראן: איך לעזור ובאיזו מידה זו לא קריאה קלה.

היום אירע פיגוע טרור בתל אביב על ידי פלסטינים שהרגו שישה ופצעו תשעה. לאחר מכן איראן שיגרה לפחות 180 טילים בליסטיים נגד ישראל. אז עכשיו אנחנו יודעים כמה דברים: ראשית, ישראל ואיראן במלחמה. האם כך אנחנו במערב רוצים שזה ילך או לעשות שותפים במזרח התיכון להיכנס למלחמה משני הצדדים להפוך את המלחמה הזאת למלחמה אזורית? והאפשרות האחרונה היא שארצות הברית ומדינות המערב יתערבו ישירות במלחמה. מכיוון שמדובר במלחמה בין מעצמה גרעינית דה יורה לבין אומה גרעינית דה פקטו, המערב יצטרך להיות זהיר ביותר עד כמה הוא מעורב בסכסוך הזה. ככל הנראה, המערב יעקוב אחר מודל אוקראינה ויספק מחדש את ישראל לפי הצורך. נראה שזו הדרך ההגיונית ללכת. המערב לא יכול לשים מגפיים ישירות על הקרקע במזרח התיכון באמצע הסכסוך הזה או שאנחנו מסתכנים להיגרר למלחמה. במילים אחרות, מעורבות אמריקאית ישירה יכולה להעלות על הדעת ברוסיה בצד איראן. אפשר לתהות אם נתניהו וחמינאי מרוצים. עם השתקפות, כנראה שלא.

Israel-Iran War: How To Help And To What Extent Isn't An Easy Call.

Today, there was a terrorist attack in Tel Aviv by Palestinians that killed six and wounded nine. That was followed by Iran launching at least 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. 

So, now we know a few things: first off, Israel and Iran are at war. Is that the way we in the West want it to go or do partners in the Middle East come into the war on both sides turning this war into a regional war? And the last option is for the United States and Western nations to get directly involved in the war.

Since this is a war between a de jure nuclear power and de facto nuclear nation, the West will have to be exceedingly careful how much it gets involved in this conflict. More than likely, the West will follow the Ukraine model and resupply Israel as necessary. That would seem to be the sensible way to go. The West can't directly put boots on the ground in the Middle East in the middle of this conflict or we risk being drawn into war. Put another way, direct American involvement could conceivably draw in Russia on Iran's side.

One wonders if Netanyahu and Khamenei are pleased. Upon reflection, probably not.