When the election is held in 2026, whoever the Liberal leader is, the party will have a huge problem: its likely vote will be limited to the island of Montreal and the Outaouais region. In addition, their vote will probably only be very efficient in those ridings. In other words, they're likely to win in Liberal ridings with an extremely high number of votes - a wasted vote that cannot be duplicated or transferred to other ridings they don't hold or are unlikely to win. In short, the first-past-the-post system puts the Quebec Liberals at an extreme disadvantage compared with the Parti Québécois, who are leading in the polls, and the current Coalition Avenir Québec government.
Add to the mix the candidate perceived possibly as the next party leader, and nothing changes: it's true that Pablo Rodriguez, according to one poll, would take the Liberals from seventeen to twenty-eight percent, which would theoretically put the party in the lead in a three-way race. But once again, it's the efficiency of the vote in the various ridings that will determine who forms the next government, and right now that is not in the party's favour.
As a result, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the PQ will have a considerable advantage in the regions, which could enable the party to win a plurality of seats in Quebec, or even a majority government if Legault remains as CAQ leader.
So there's no doubt that Pablo's arrival on the scene as a possible QLP leader has muddied the waters. If he becomes leader, it will open up an opportunity for the QLP but will probably not lead to forming a future government. The CAQ is probably heading for a free fall unless Legault leaves, but that won't benefit the QLP. The PQ is best placed to reap the rewards of dissatisfaction and disillusionment with the CAQ. But never say never. Just look at what Trudeau did for the federal Liberals in 2015. In theory, nothing is impossible, even in Quebec politics.
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