Tuesday 8 October 2024

Iran: Pierre Needs To Stick To Domestic Policy.

Pierre, Try to keep up. Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018. That was six years ago, plenty of time for Iran to develop more than one dirty bomb or crude nuclear device. Here's my prediction, Israel will DEFINITELY not attack Iranian nuclear installations and uranium-enriching facilities. Why? Because Mossad not only has confirmation that nuclear weapons exist but also knows how many have been produced to date. My guess: one to five.

So...the threat assessment vastly outweighs the advantages of attacking these targets. That's why Israel is taking its time in selecting targets before it strikes back. Netanyahu wants to do nothing in response that would encourage Iran to use the nuclear option. This option is likely limited to tactical battlefield weapons, which could conceivably be used against cities and towns.

Refineries and other oil and gas installations would likely be the target of choice in an Israeli counterstrike. 

And then there's the collective psychological profile of the leadership in Iran: why have they twice acted emboldened? Obviously, because they have insurance in the form of nuclear devices. 

As for Pierre's claim that the country is just itching to overthrow the mullahs, forget it. The Revolutionary Guard and VAJA have been instrumental in crushing at least two revolutions started by the people. The regime remains vulnerable but not sufficiently so that a future revolution would ultimately be successful, at least not in the medium term.    

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