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Well, surprise, surprise, the national polls were largely OK in 2016 but regional polls in the battleground states were way off: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump made huge inroads that won him the presidency.

Move forward to 2020: the national polls overrepresented Biden's support level while other polls were off in swing states: Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and also in Republican-leaning states, Montana, Indiana and Missouri.

So, to some extent, pollsters will get it wrong this time too. My money is on an overrepresentation of Trump support in battleground states meaning Trump will do less well, and likely much less well, in crucial states than projected. Translation: that will cost him the presidency.