Pablo: Léger/Le Journal/TVA Poll.

The least we can say is that this poll gives Rodriguez hope in the QLP leadership race. The poll shows that Pablo is currently in the lead and would win back thirty per cent of the vote, well ahead of the other declared candidates. For the moment, Pablo is seen as the leading candidate in the race. There's no denying that. On the other hand, many Liberals are waiting things out as it relates to the current candidates: forty-five percent of Liberals are on hold, probably for another star candidate. We'll see what happens next. One wonders whether, with not just a bounce but also clear momentum for Pablo, any other well-known Liberal is ready to get into the race? Former ministers and current MNAs seem to be looking for a white knight. Personally, I don't see one on the horizon. In any case, it's good news for Pablo. 

Now, it seems fair to say that Rodriguez's support among francophones is surprising: Pablo might receive the support of twenty percent of these voters if he were the leader, but this is certainly not a seduction of Francophones, far from it. On the other hand, it's an improvement and a good first step. I agree. 

As for a real three-way battle, the PQ remains in the lead with thirty-two percent of support, far ahead of the other parties. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon remains the man to beat if an election were held today. The arrival of Pablo at the head of the QLP would certainly give the electorate a sense of renewal, but to what extent? Marc Tanguay is more popular with voters who vote for the other parties. But Rodriguez is far ahead among Liberals: he has the support of twenty-eight percent of dyed-in-the-wool Liberals.

In short, Pablo seems to be the man for the job, at least as far as the Liberals are concerned. In the absence of other candidates, he has the wind in his sails, up to a point. But, for the moment, Rodriguez remains the creature of his own activists and supporters. The QLP still has a long way to go, even if Pablo becomes the party's next leader.

As for his chances, I'll put them in the context of the Ontario Liberals: Pablo is already perceived as Sandra Pupatello in many quarters. Time will tell whether he remains Pupatillo, or truly becomes the next Kathleen Wynne.