Re: Kinsella: My Political Gut.

Warren,

With respect, I think your gut is wrong but nonetheless it could be right! Here's why: polling is no longer a reliable model given that its methodology remains anchored around landlines which most people no longer have. Most voters have a cell/mobile and likely most don't answer phone numbers they don't recognize. Then comes the factor where people lie to pollsters to some extent. And internet polling is not credible as it's usually skewed.

Now to remarks from others:

Pedant,

Harris has more policy than Trump. She largely reflects Biden policy but has gone beyond Biden on any number of issues. However, there are no policy initiatives to this point. As for Trump, all he's got are concepts of nothing.

Harper didn't have a 100-day plan. He had 4-5 broad themes and stuck to that. 

Douglas,

Factor in the advanced polling in Georgia and other states. We all know that heavy advanced polling usually means it's a vote for change. Little chance of it being for Trump. Harris remains the change candidate since she has never served in that office before. Agreed she needs to separate herself more from Biden and put loyalty to him aside in the next three weeks but again, high turnout likely will be in her favour meaning she's still ahead and will win. If all states that allow advanced polling are like Georgia, she wins in a landslide. POS sinks his campaign even more every time he opens his mouth. Now he's prepared to use troops against American citizens. Help that asshole it will not.

EHWAL,

Harris is leading in the Electoral College. But agreed, IF it becomes the next Bush v. Gore, the Supreme Court will once again find a way to throw the election to Trump.

Sean,

Who do you think wins this election on turnout? In my book, it's Harris.

RKJ,

Agreed to some extent when you factor in for Harris sexism and misogyny. As for Trump, everyone but his supporters hate his guts and that is over fifty percent of the electorate. Exception to your point: women writ large who will vote massively for Harris on abortion and a woman's right to choose.