PLQ : Voyons donc !

Il est évident que le chef manque d'expérience en matière de stratégie politique. Je vais donc me permettre de répondre à sa place : il est clair que nos efforts dans cette circonscription ont été insuffisants et que nous n'avons pas présenté de raison claire et suffisante pour voter pour notre parti. Il y avait un sérieux manque d'organisation et de politiques spécifiquement adaptées aux problèmes et aux besoins particuliers de la région. Notre candidate était une personnalité locale, mais cela n'a pas suffi pour remporter la course.

Pablo nous dit : Nous avons dépassé la CAQ, nous sommes passés de la cinquième à la troisième place et nous avons presque triplé notre vote...  Et moi, je réponds : et alors ?

Terminer troisième dans une circonscription presque exclusivement francophone n'est pas un véritable exploit. Notre résultat n'est pas crédible au vu des défis qui nous attendent lors des prochaines élections. 

Avec un résultat aussi médiocre, Rodriguez devrait sérieusement repenser sa stratégie consistant à ne se présenter qu'aux prochaines élections générales. Nous avons besoin d'une victoire, et compte tenu des résultats dans d'Arthabaska, nous avons besoin de cette réussite le plus tôt possible.

L'élection partielle dans d'Arthabaska.

Pitoyable. Même pas un résultat respectable, troisième place… 9,25 %.

Nous avons quelques organisateurs nationaux à remercier.

It's Not Nice To Try And Serially Curtail My Freedom of Speech Right Now Is It...

LOL. I'm only getting warmed up. I'm a lot better at this than I've demonstrated so far. I'll pound you politically until you're gone. Count on it.

Abacus Poll: Our Leader Is Going Nowhere.

They can call Carney an empty suit, but he's the one with a net +19 approval rating. Our leader enjoys a +1 rating, and that number won't be improving ever. Sums things up pretty nicely, I'd say.

Abacus Data Poll: Canadian political opinions stable as trade talks continue - Abacus Data

עזה: הכחשת הרעב של נתניהו.

נתניהו הוא אמן תקשורת מיומן. הופעתו האחרונה במסיבת עיתונאים הייתה מבריקה. למרבה הצער, כפי שאתם יודעים, ביבי הוא שקרן מיומן. נתניהו דבק בהגדרה שאין בה שום הבדל מעשי: הוא קורא לזה "מחסור", בעוד שרובנו קוראים לזה "רעב ומוות", לא עבור ההמונים אלא עבור מספר רב של פלסטינים. בינתיים, אחרים ממשיכים לסבול מתת-תזונה בעזה.

ביבי מאשים את האו"ם בכך שהוא אינו מאפשר למשאית לעבור ברפיח ובנקודות כניסה אחרות. האו"ם טוען שזה בגלל שיקולי ביטחון. באשר למזון שכן נכנס, נתניהו אומר שרוב המזון נגנב על ידי לוחמי חמאס. החלק הזה אולי נכון. נראה לי שלוחמי חמאס ניזונים היטב. אך נתניהו, באופן מוזר, אינו נוגע בשתי נקודות: איך כוחות ההגנה הישראליים ירו על משאיות מזון לא מורשות, והתוצאה הסופית של 11 ימים שבהם ישראל סירבה לאפשר משלוחי מזון לעזה. 

אין לי זכות לטעון שישראל הרעיבה בכוונה את תושבי עזה. אך מדיניותה ככוח כובש הובילה לכך במקרים רבים. לכן, ישראל אחראית בעקיפין לחלק ממקרי הרעב. ביבי הציג את המקרים שנבחרו בקפידה במסיבת העיתונאים שלו, והפריך אותם. אבל אלה לא היו המקרים היחידים בעזה, והוא לא הצליח להפריך אותם. ישנה בעיה נוספת שלא ניתן להתעלם ממנה: כאשר חמאס גונב מזון, אזרחים סובלים מרעב. כתוצאה מכך, האחריות לרעב יכולה להיות מיוחסת בבירור הן לישראל והן לחמאס.

לבסוף, ישנה טענתו המגוחכת של נתניהו כי צה"ל יכול לנצח במלחמה זו. זה לעולם לא יקרה. זה לא קרה בווייטנאם, בעיראק או באפגניסטן. יותר משנתיים חלפו, וישראל לא קרובה יותר לניצחון במלחמה מאשר הייתה ביום הראשון לכניסת צה"ל לעזה. זה שטויות, וביבי יודע זאת היטב. אך זה הרבה יותר טוב מהאפשרות לפלוש לתא כלא.

غزة: حرمان نتنياهو.

نتنياهو بارع للغاية في التواصل. كان أداءه الأخير في مؤتمر صحفي بارعًا للغاية. للأسف، هو بيبي، كما تعلمون، كاذب بارع. يتشبث نتنياهو بتعريف لا يحدث فرقًا عمليًا: يسميه حرمانًا، بينما يسميه معظمنا مجاعة وموتًا، ليس للجماهير بل لعدد كبير من الفلسطينيين. في غضون ذلك، يواصل آخرون المعاناة من سوء التغذية في غزة.

بيبي يلوم الأمم المتحدة على عدم السماح للشاحنات بالعبور في رفح ونقاط الدخول الأخرى. الأمم المتحدة تقول إن ذلك كان بسبب مخاوف أمنية. أما بالنسبة للغذاء الذي يدخل، يقول نتنياهو إن إرهابيي حماس يسرقون معظمه. قد يكون هذا الجزء صحيحًا. يبدو لي أن ما يسمى بمقاتلي حماس يتغذون جيدًا. لكن نتنياهو، بشكل غريب، لا يتطرق إلى نقطتين: كيف أطلقت قوات الدفاع الإسرائيلية النار على شاحنات الغذاء غير المصرح بها، والنتيجة النهائية لأحد عشر يومًا رفضت فيها إسرائيل السماح بدخول شحنات الغذاء إلى غزة. 

ليس من حقي بالتأكيد أن أدعي أن إسرائيل تعمدت تجويع سكان غزة. لكن سياساتها كقوة احتلال أدت إلى ذلك في كثير من الحالات. لذلك، فإن إسرائيل مسؤولة بشكل غير مباشر عن بعض حالات المجاعة. قدم بيبي ملفاته المختارة بعناية في مؤتمره الصحفي، والتي دحضها. لكن تلك لم تكن الحالات الوحيدة في غزة، والتي يبدو أنه غير قادر على نفيها. هناك مشكلة أخرى لا يمكن تجاهلها وهي أن حماس عندما تسرق الطعام، يجوع المدنيون. ونتيجة لذلك، يمكن بوضوح إلقاء مسؤولية المجاعة على كل من إسرائيل وحماس.

أخيرًا، هناك ادعاء نتنياهو السخيف بأن جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي يمكنه الفوز في هذه الحرب. هذا لن يحدث أبدًا. لم يحدث ذلك في فيتنام أو العراق أو أفغانستان. لقد مر أكثر من عامين، وإسرائيل لم تقترب من الفوز في الحرب أكثر مما كانت عليه في اليوم الأول لدخول جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي غزة. هذا هراء، وبيبي يعرف ذلك جيدًا. لكنه أفضل بكثير من احتمال غزو زنزانة سجن.

Gaza: Netanyahu's Deprivation.

Netanyahu is extraordinarily effective as a communicator. His latest performance at a press conference was nothing short of masterful. Too bad, he's Bibi, you know, an accomplished liar. Netanyahu clings to a definition with no practical difference: he calls it deprivation while most of us call it starvation and death, not of the masses but for a significant number of Palestinians. Meanwhile, others remain malnourished in Gaza.

Bibi blames the UN for not allowing the trucks to cross at Rafah and other ports of entry. The UN states that it was due to security concerns. As for the food that does get in, Netanyahu says Hamas terrorists steal almost all of it. That part is probably true. The Hamas so-called fighters look well-fed to me. But Netanyahu does not deal strangely enough with two points: how unauthorized food trucks were allegedly fired up by the IDF, and the end result of eleven days when Israel refused to allow food deliveries into Gaza. 

It's certainly not my contention that Israel deliberately set out to starve Gazans. However, their policies as the occupier did lead to that end in many cases. So, Israel is indirectly responsible for some starvation. Bibi had his cherry-picked files at his press conference, which he refuted. However, those were not the only cases in Gaza, which he seemingly can't repudiate. The other elephant in the room is this: when Hamas steals the food, civilians starve. As a result, starvation can clearly be laid at the doorstep of both Israel and Hamas.

Finally, there's Netanyahu's ridiculous assertion that the IDF can win this war. It will never happen. That didn't occur in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. It's been almost two years, and Israel is no closer to winning the war than it was on the first day the IDF entered Gaza. It's bullshit and Bibi knows it only too well. Mind you, it's far better than possibly invading a jail cell.

What CPC Members Must Do If The Leader Wins The Leadership Review.

Our leader has a very poor self-image and, down to his bones, lacks confidence that he's actually up to the big job. It shows. He even publicly predicted that we might lose the election before the vote was counted, and he was dead on. People can't stand him and are turned off when he's on television. That's why his personal approval as potential prime minister has fallen so far that it now occupies a sacred position south of hell. Canadians and committed voters want nothing to do with him. Everyone knows it, even Conservative members and supporters, but they're so obedient, preparing once again to bend over to receive the leader's broomstick next January in Calgary. Put succinctly, at the convention we will put the finishing touches on our future loss to Carney: we will ratify our leader's continued leadership and then go down in flames in the spring when the PM pulls the electoral plug in search of a majority. 

For those of us who have seen through the leader's false confidence veneer, there will be but two choices: either go inactive and silent or leave the party and form our own. I'm leaning toward option two. I want to win -- nothing else matters, and I already know that I can't and WON'T with this leader. The 2025 election was the party's and the leader's high-water mark. It's all downhill from here, and party members can sense it's coming. 

Given that caucus will be the first to bend over to receive the leader's benediction, we can't count on them to remove him. They'll likely keep him in place with a "new" orientation and a phoney "look how much I've changed" mantra. Baloney. He's who he is, and no one will buy that. Besides, Byrne's half-in-half-out approach proves nothing has changed under his leadership.

To wrestle power from the Liberals in a three-election scenario will require a split on the right, with the CPC going one way and a Progressive party going another. Hopefully, forty-five percent of the membership will join us. That will leave the CPC as a self-indulgent, myopic, overly right-wing rump that goes to bed every night as content as can be, despite serial election losses. The CPC western apparatus cares not for election wins. All it's about is controlling the party and imposing unrealistic right-wing American-focused ideology. Those people are almost all of the Trump worshippers in this party. Post breakup, you can continue to have your serial orgasms based on garbage politics that will never get you elected as a national government again. As for the rest of us, we'll do what it takes to win. Our job will be to get the Liberals out, and we'll do it. It won't be a question of if, but only a matter of when. Just watch us, as that man used to say.

Natural Resource Stocks: The Rotation Into American Silver Large To Mid Cap Stocks Has Begun.

In short, Coeur moved on August 2nd and Hecla on the 7th. I own both.

Would You Buy A Used Car From The CPC Leader?

Don't make me cry, bozo. This is a guy who, after twenty years, managed to lose his own riding to a practically unknown Liberal candidate. The people who know him best turfed him. In other words, they didn't want to see our leader as prime minister, and so they kicked his sorry ass to the curb. Meanwhile, the political novice right next door managed to win his riding. Speaks volumes about what Canadians really think of him.

Again, this is a guy whose personal polling number has done nothing but sink like a rock since election day. No one gives a shit what this guy has to say, much less what he would do if we had the misfortune of having him as prime minister. If the CPC leader had wheels, he would be a car. 

Again, it took extraordinary skill to turn your own people against you in a riding you've held since Jesus was but a thought in holy circles. No one wants to have anything to do with this guy going forward, but nonetheless, the good people of Alberta are intent on foisting him upon the rest of us. So be it. 

For fellow Conservatives, I remind you that keeping this guy as leader means an almost certain loss in the next election. But it's not like we aren't already used to that in spades, after all, having had the likes of Scheer, O'Toole and this guy as leader. So, go ahead and fall in line behind this political afterthought next January. Then we'll all get what we so richly deserve, another five years in opposition. That's the great part of being a Conservative, no matter the leader, I always get the best and last laugh when we explode politically after every single election since 2015. Much more of the same straight ahead.

CUSMA: Ford Isn't Tough Enough!

If Ford reads this, he might get a bit of a chuckle. My position is crystal clear: dollar-for-dollar tariffs won't do the job. Ford is correct when he says that what Trump only respects (and fears) is strength. DFD just won't cut the mustard. What we have to do in the short to medium term is to make both American and Canadian companies suffer. That means putting comprehensive tariffs on all CUSMA-compliant imports manufactured in the United States. That's the only way to get the business lobby to go berserk and threaten Trump unless that asshole drops all North American tariffs. Put another way, Canadian businesses must be prohibited from importing anything from the United States as long as tariffs remain on the agenda, and by extension, reprisal tariffs must also serve to prevent ninety-nine percent of American sales to Canadian companies. Period. Both countries need to be hit as hard as possible to permanently deep-six Trump's tariffs.

Here's an "example" of Trump's thinking: his final position is that he wants one yard from Canada. Then, if Canada unilaterally removes or reduces some of its retaliatory tariffs, suddenly the new goalpost is set at three yards. And surprise, surprise, when we reach an accelerated or even a scheduled renegotiation of CUSMA in 2026, then Trump's goalpost will be at ten yards. It's blackmail and extortion from start to finish. That's the only way Trump operates, and Carney better not show a single moment of weakness, otherwise we're totally screwed tradewise for the next four years.

A Leader Who Has Guts And One Who Doesn't.

Carney is attending Pride in Vancouver. Poilièvre is scared to do so. Doesn't have the guts to do that. Speaks volumes, both about him and some of our party membership.

Pedant In Retreat Finally Shows His True Colours.

Those of a pathetic, whining loser. Why don't you show your face again on Kinsella so we can deal with you as we see fit? Are you too scared to take us on? LOL. Maybe, just maybe, you're no match for the rest of us and you know it! But by all means stay put so you can drag all of the rest of us down with you. God knows, we're already used to it. 

Those CPC Deluded YouTubers.

Not all of them, but most are simply losers or whackos. Just watch some of their videos. Their latest nonsense is supposedly about how Carney and the Liberals are losing public support when, in fact, they've gained support since the election. 

On election day, the CPC came in two and a half percent behind the Liberals in polling support. Today, with the obvious exception of one rogue pollster, the Liberals are TEN percent ahead of the Conservatives. It would be hilarious if it weren't so sad and pathetic. They are parroting the leader's bullshit and will elect him again without question or comment in the upcoming byelection. Not bright enough, or rather delusional enough to dismiss the leader's popularity numbers, which are even more abysmal than those of the party. In short, acting like losers and loving it. Ah, five more years in opposition is what's on our agenda. As incredible as it may be, yes, we are that stupid...we're getting what we so richly deserve with this ideologue-demagogue as our leader. But they wouldn't and won't dump this turd even if Jesus asked them.

Maxwell: A No-Win Situation For Trump.

Regardless of what Trump does about Maxwell, or doesn't do, it will be a no-win situation for him. If he pardons her, he will have half the country and much of his base howling in protest. What will they think of him and his previous conduct then? If he doesn't pardon her, then she will go for the gusto and do everything possible to try and take him down. Potentially, it could get a lot worse politically for Trump as Maxwell likely has hidden so-called bombs in the possession of third parties. Trump now calls it the Epstein hoax. We're about to find out if he got that right. It certainly looks like a lose-lose situation to me.

CUSMA: How To Win Against Trump.

In short, take an economic theory, that of tariffs, that has absolutely zero credibility under sound economics and leverage it as the initiator. In other words, stop being a reactive Canada and go on the offence for a prescriptive period. 

Canada should impose at least 25% tariffs on all CUSMA-compliant goods manufactured in the States. Breach the damned agreement just like Trump does. Sure, Canadian companies will be hurt, but American exporters will be hurt even more. Short-term pain for long-term gain, to quote Crosbie. Hit the United States hard right where they live in the pocketbook. That'll get the asshole's attention, but good. And the American business lobby will come down on Trump like a ton of bricks. Fuck that POS.

Why Canada Is Thoroughly and Truly Screwed: Making The Case For Freeland.

The Trump Administration derives its trade authority from the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, passed by Congress during the Kennedy Administration. It purports to promote the general welfare, foreign policy, and security of the United States through international trade agreements. Under Section 232, the Executive can bypass Congress and impose tariffs on imports under the three conditions outlined in the Act. Essentially, tariffs can be imposed by the President based on national security considerations. 

This Act is part of the delegation of powers by Congress to the President. Under Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution, Congress is attributed the power to impose duties and regulate foreign commerce. Under the Congressional Trade Authority Act of 2025, two House Democrats have introduced a Bill to restrict presidential authority over trade. By doing so, this is an implicit recognition that presidential powers, however limited in scope, are lawful. These members hope to retroactively restore trade authority to Congress. As a result, congressional approval would be required for any Executive actions taken regarding trade and national security considerations. In addition, jurisdiction would be transferred from the Commerce and Defence Departments solely to the latter. 

Meanwhile, the courts have already begun to weigh in on the Trump Administration's broad use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Last May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the President had exceeded his constitutional authority and ordered that the tariffs be vacated. On appeal, the Federal Circuit Court allowed the Trump Administration to continue collecting tariffs while the case is before the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals. Oral arguments are already underway before an eleven-member bench. That decision, once it comes down, is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States.

Finally, one cannot help but be amused that the Trump Administration has not taken the elementary precaution of having its trade Executive orders backstopped by introducing Congressional legislation to ratify them following implementation. But then again, we are talking about the TRUMP Administration.

It's my contention that Freeland is the only person who can crack that nut as it relates to American tariffs imposed on Canadian steel, aluminum, lumber and forest products, automobiles and parts, energy, potash and some copper goods. In addition, blanket tariffs are now in effect on all non-CUSMA-compliant imports. Carney would do well to bear that in mind going forward.

Trump: Carney Is Learning His Lesson The Hard Way.

Better turn to Freeland. Fast.

Trump's Framework Free Trade Agreements Mean Nothing.

The ultimate con jobs. There are no free trade deals on paper. The UK, Vietnam, Japan and now EU deals aren't worth two-shits. They're all useless until the formal texts appear. Don't hold your breath waiting.

Eliminar la ciudadanía por nacimiento es racismo.

Vamos al grano. Trump quiere acabar con la ciudadanía por nacimiento porque Estados Unidos está en camino de convertirse en un país con mayoría no blanca en algún momento de las próximas dos décadas. Por eso Trump está presionando para que se apruebe. Es puro y simple racismo. Y punto.

La orden ejecutiva de Trump va en contra de la interpretación legal tradicional de la 14.ª Enmienda. Hasta ahora, dos jueces de tribunales de distrito han dictaminado que la orden de Trump es inconstitucional, y un tribunal de apelaciones de circuito de Estados Unidos ha hecho lo mismo. Esto sigue a una decisión del Tribunal Supremo que limita la aplicabilidad de las decisiones o mandamientos judiciales de los tribunales de distrito destinados a aplicarse en todo el país. 

La orden de Trump afecta a los hijos de inmigrantes ilegales o trabajadores temporales que nacieron en Estados Unidos. En última instancia, e inevitablemente, algunas de estas decisiones llegarán a la Suprema Corte para su resolución definitiva. Con una mayoría conservadora percibida de 6-3, será interesante ver qué decide la corte.

Removing Birthright Citizenship Is Racism.

Let's get down to brass tacks. Trump wants to end birthright citizenship because the United States is well on its way to becoming majority non-white sometime during the next two decades. That's why Trump is pushing for this. It's out and out racism. Period.

Trump's Executive Order goes against the traditional legal interpretation of the 14th Amendment. So far, two District court justices have ruled Trump's order unconstitutional, and a U.S. Circuit appeals court has done the same. This comes in the wake of a Supreme Court decision limiting the applicability of district court decisions or injunctions intended to be applied nationally. 

Trump's order affects children of illegals or temporary workers who were born in the United States. Ultimately and inevitably, some of these decisions will come before the Supreme Court for final adjudication. With a perceived 6-3 conservative majority, it will be interesting to see what the court decides. 

 

הרעב בעזה: ביבי סוף סוף נכנע.

נתניהו חש בלחץ והבין כי חוסר המעש שלו גורם לבעלי בריתו הנאמנים לפנות נגדו, ולכן נכנע. על כל אחד מאיתנו להפריד בין דעתנו על ממשלתו לבין תמיכתנו ארוכת השנים בישראל.

איש זה הגביל את הסיוע הנכנס לעזה לקבלנים וסיים את מאמצי הסיוע של האו"ם. כתוצאה מכך, מצבם של התושבים החמיר משמעותית, ואזרחים מתו מתת-תזונה. צה"ל יכול לטעון ככל שירצה שאין רעב בעזה, אבל זה שטויות. יש רעב. האם זה רעב המוני זו שאלה של פרטים, אבל זה לא העניין. אחריותה של ישראל, ותמיד הייתה, היא להבטיח שאזרחים יטופלו כראוי ויאכילו אותם באזורי הפליטים. נתניהו נכשל בכך, ויש הטוענים שהוא עשה זאת בכוונה. הם טוענים שהמשאלה הגדולה ביותר שלו היא לרוקן את עזה מאזרחים על ידי אילוץ אותם לעבור למדינות ערב השכנות. שכנותיה של ישראל לא יסכימו לכך, ולכן לביבי לא נותרה ברירה אלא לאפשר לשיירות האו"ם לחדש את אספקת הסיוע לעזה. בנוסף, צה"ל השליך מזון לעזה מהאוויר, ובכך הודה בעקיפין כי הרעב באזור הוא עובדה. נתניהו יודע כעת שהמבצע בעזה הוא עניין רחוק מלהיות שולי. ככל שצה"ל יישאר בעזה זמן רב יותר, כך המצב יהפוך לבלתי נסבל יותר הן עבור האזרחים והן עבור צה"ל.

جوع غزة: بيبي يتراجع أخيرًا.

شعر نتنياهو بالضغط وعلم أن تقاعسه عن اتخاذ أي إجراء كان يؤدي إلى انقلاب حلفائه الأوفياء ضده، لذا تراجع. علينا جميعًا أن نفصل بين رأينا في حكومته ودعمنا الطويل الأمد لإسرائيل.

لقد قيد هذا الرجل المساعدات التي تدخل غزة على المقاولين، وقلص جهود الإغاثة التي تبذلها الأمم المتحدة. ونتيجة لذلك، ازدادت معاناة الناس سوءًا، حيث مات مدنيون بسبب سوء التغذية على الأقل. يمكن للجيش الإسرائيلي أن يدعي ما يشاء بأن لا مجاعة في غزة، لكن هذا هراء. هناك مجاعة. الشيطان يكمن في التفاصيل فيما إذا كانت تشكل مجاعة جماعية، لكن هذا ليس المهم. إنها مسؤولية إسرائيل، ولطالما كانت كذلك، أن تضمن رعاية المدنيين وتغذيتهم بشكل مناسب في مناطق اللاجئين. فشل نتنياهو في القيام بذلك، ويزعم البعض أنه فعل ذلك عمداً. ويؤكدون أن أمنيته الأكبر هي إخلاء غزة من المدنيين عن طريق إجبارهم على الانتقال إلى الدول العربية المجاورة. لن تقبل دول الجوار بإسرائيل ذلك، لذا لم يكن أمام بيبي خيار سوى السماح لقوافل الأمم المتحدة باستئناف عمليات التسليم في غزة. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، قامت قوات الدفاع الإسرائيلية بإسقاط مواد غذائية جواً في غزة، وهو ما يعد اعترافاً ضمنياً بحدوث مجاعة على الأرض. يكتشف نتنياهو بهدوء أن العمليات في غزة ليست سهلة على الإطلاق. فكلما طالت مدة بقاء قوات الدفاع الإسرائيلية في غزة، زادت صعوبة الأمور على المدنيين وقوات الدفاع الإسرائيلية على حد سواء.

Gaza Starvation: Bibi Finally Blinks.

Netanyahu was feeling the heat and knew that his inaction was turning staunch allies against him, so he blinked. Each of us needs to separate our opinion of his government from our longstanding support for Israel.

This guy had restricted aid entering Gaza to contractors, having curtailed UN relief efforts. As a result, the people's hardship became much worse, with civilians dying due to at least malnutrition. The IDF can claim all it wants that there's no starvation in Gaza, but that's bullshit. There is. The devil is in the details as to whether it constitutes mass starvation, but that's beside the point. It's Israel's responsibility and always has been to ensure that civilians were properly cared for and fed in refugee areas. Netanyahu failed to do that, with some claiming he did so deliberately. They maintain that his fondest wish is to empty Gaza of civilians by forcing them to relocate to neighbouring Arab countries. Israel's neighbours will have none of that, so Bibi had no choice but to allow UN convoys to resume deliveries in Gaza. In addition, the IDF has air-dropped food in Gaza, so that is a tacit admission that starvation was occurring on the ground. Netanyahu is quietly discovering that operations in Gaza are already far from a piece of cake. The longer the IDF stays in Gaza, the more intractable things will become for both civilians and the IDF alike. 

Epstein.

If Trump pardons Maxwell, he will be finished politically. It's that simple.

He should also be praying that his remaining three and a half years pass as slowly as possible...

CPC: When You Continually Grouse About Something It Means That You Feel Threatened By It.

And so it goes when it comes to the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election, which will take place next month. The leader is repeatedly complaining about the long ballot as undemocratic and is writing to the government to propose a bill to outlaw it. Ha, ha, ha. This guy is totally intimidated by it and probably thinks that the other candidates could siphon off so many votes that his win will look like a ridiculous and underachieving outcome. 

We all know how things go in Alberta CPC circles: wins come in north of seventy percent, with some MPs getting over eighty percent of the vote. That won't happen with this leader. Even in AB, people are sick of his face and the fact that he's nothing more than a tired career politician. Add to that a personality that leaves people indifferent, if not hostile, to the leader. The only warm feelings this guy generates are in the shower.

So, watch that number and see if it comes in even below Joe Clark territory. I'm predicting a win with thirty-five percent of the vote, as a lot of the protest vote scatters across the spectrum. Nothing below seventy percent will be good for his continued leadership. This is a weak leader who gets intimidated easily and then whines about it. He's nothing like Harper, and it shows. 

Stay tuned because fun times are ahead. Will he still be party leader after the byelection? I think so. But what about after the review? It will depend on his number and where Carney sits in the polls. If the Liberals break out between now and then, our leader will be gone shortly after the review number is announced. Carney must pray every night for the leader to stay in place. Can't say that I blame him. LOL.

Gaza: The Palestinian State Off Ramp Will Happen But Not Peace In Gaza.

Macron and other proponents have it ass-backwards. They argue that recognizing a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly will lead to a ceasefire and the return of Israeli and other hostages. Wrong. Trump agrees with this except for the Palestinian state part, but everyone is full of shit. 

There won't and can't be a permanent ceasefire in Gaza because that would mean returning all hostages to Israel, and the Hamas terrorists can't lose their life preserver. They need to keep some hostages forever, or until they die, otherwise Netanyahu goes full-bore against Hamas to kill every single Hamas fighter and then run the organization into the ground. Hamas knows this only too well, so a genuine, comprehensive ceasefire will never happen. Bibi can kill every Hamas member, but you can't kill an idea, however loathsome it is. Hamas will eventually reconstitute and regroup under new leadership and with scores of new young fighters. So, so much for that, Netanyahu.

My objection to a Palestinian state is one of timing. What kind of message does this send to the families of twelve hundred dead Israelis and other Jews? It's simply monstrous to go ahead with statehood now. However, any intellectually honest person knows that one day a Palestinian state will become inevitable. But, its territory has to be based solely on the West Bank. 

So, like it or not, and definitely, Netanyahu is raging, the domino theory will make it happen. It's kind of ironic that the same thing resulted in Western governments recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, after Trump got the ball rolling. 

France will go first, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada. It's nuts in the current geopolitical context, but hey, what can I say?

Free Trade: Trump's Bullshit Is Going Full Tilt.

Now, Trump is playing bad cop himself, saying there probably won't be a trade deal with Canada. English translation: he expects Carney to cave 100%. Carney won't do that, so in the end, it will be no deal, which in reality is the last thing that Trump really wants. Good going, moron. Par for the course, Trump.

Carney Ain't All Bad.

He's sort of like Harper, a guy who listened only rarely to what I proposed. But I did get three out of Harper: automobile bailouts, then ministers of state and changes to the national war memorial. Carney, so far, only one: the Council of the Federation. I've been advocating for this for ages, arguing that it should be at least one annual meeting with the Prime Minister. Genius Trudeau, of course, or should I say Telford, knew better than I did. Right.

Politicians Who Did Not Block Our Individual Free Speech Rights.

Fortunately, for Canadians, the partial list is long:

Clark

Chrétien

Martin

Harper

Trudeau

Scheer

O'Toole

Carney

2025: Your Natural Resources Stock Portfolio.

I'm twenty-five percent beta and the rest alpha. But as Rick would say, don't confuse a bull market with brains and a self-induced delusional stock-picking genius. My TFSA is now at +126%, having enjoyed at least on paper two previous gains of +500%, in 2018 and 2020. Guess who did not sell both times. LOL.

Meanwhile, the RRSP is the clear laggard: still at -12%, having previously risen to +47% in both 2018 and 2020. The Cash Account is currently at a modest +7%, while it gained +20% in 2016, +29% the next year, +82% in 2021.

So, the moral of this story is to start out with the best of the best producers and royalty/streaming companies to build your initial nest egg. Then go with people who are serial money makers over multiple decades and countries. Next, move down the quality trail and buy the highest quality intermediates, developers and explorers that you can find. If you do the work, you can't help but be well rewarded. As an example, I sat on Shamaran Petroleum, a Lundin vehicle, for five years before it finally started to move. I'm up in two accounts +294% and +142% respectively. Still holding every single share.

Trump: Doing Everything He Can To Send Bolsonaro To Jail.

The American moron is back, cancelling visas for Brazilian Supreme Court members and demanding that Bolsonaro's trial be halted. What an idiot. As Lula pointed out, the judicial system is independent of the government. He stated that the Executive would not interfere in Bolsonaro's trial.

Meanwhile, federal police raided Bolsonaro's home and party offices, claiming he was obstructing justice and planning to flee the country. Bolsonaro vehemently denies this, arguing that the trial is nothing more than a sham and an attempt to permanently bar him from holding political office. 

Ironically, Trump's continued intervention in Brazilian politics and its legal system is hurting Bolsonaro more than helping him. It has not gone unnoticed that the American president is fighting more vigorously for Bolsonaro than the former president himself.

It is no surprise that, given this reality, the federal police have concluded that Bolsonaro poses a flight risk, likely to the United States, where he would receive, at the very least, refuge, if not asylum. That is why Bolsonaro now wears an electronic ankle cuff.

If Trump had any sense, he would leave Bolsonaro's defence to his lawyers. He is only harming Bolsonaro's case with his constant interference in Brazilian judicial affairs. Bolsonaro needs to tell Trump to stay out of it. If only that were possible. With an ally like Trump, who needs sworn enemies...

Trump: Fazendo tudo o que pode para mandar Bolsonaro para a prisão.

O idiota americano está de volta, cancelando vistos para membros do Supremo Tribunal Federal e exigindo que o julgamento de Bolsonaro seja encerrado. Que idiota. Como Lula apontou, o sistema judicial é independente do governo. Ele afirmou que o Executivo não interferiria no julgamento de Bolsonaro.

Enquanto isso, a polícia federal invadiu a casa e os escritórios do partido de Bolsonaro, alegando que ele estava obstruindo a justiça e planejando fugir do país. Bolsonaro nega veementemente, argumentando que o julgamento não passa de uma farsa e uma tentativa de impedi-lo permanentemente de exercer cargos políticos.

Ironicamente, a intervenção contínua de Trump na política brasileira e em seu sistema jurídico está prejudicando Bolsonaro mais do que ajudando-o. Não passou despercebido que o presidente americano está lutando mais vigorosamente por Bolsonaro do que o próprio ex-presidente.

Não é surpresa que, diante dessa realidade, a polícia federal tenha concluído que Bolsonaro representa um risco de fuga, provavelmente para os Estados Unidos, onde receberia, no mínimo, refúgio, se não asilo. É por isso que Bolsonaro agora usa uma tornozeleira eletrônica.

Se Trump tivesse bom senso, deixaria a defesa de Bolsonaro a cargo de seus advogados. Ele só está prejudicando o caso de Bolsonaro com sua constante interferência nos assuntos judiciais brasileiros. Bolsonaro precisa dizer a Trump para ficar fora disso. Se ao menos isso fosse possível. Com um aliado como Trump, quem precisa de inimigos jurados...

It's An Honour Being Able To Write For You.

Thanks so much to my readers. I hope to keep things interesting going forward. LOL.

Is Poilièvre In Joe Clark Territory?

These are grand times for dissidents. Haven't had this much fun since we tried to dump Harper in 2005. Those were good days!

Last time, we took down O'Toole with help from none other than SaintByrneTM, and now we're going to work hard to exile Byrne, whose company remains on the CPC payroll, and to give the leader the heave-ho. The leader is laughing at us by keeping her around. No surprise there. After all, he always has the right answers.

It warms my heart to hear about the fighting in the OLO: a majority of his advisers, such as they are, favour proceeding as scheduled with the leadership review vote next January, but a significant minority are adamantly against that, fearing that the leader is in Clark territory, namely sixty-seven percent. The latter regard that type of result as insufficient for the leader to carry on and argue that the vote should be put off to the fall of 2026, thereby giving them time to shore up support in the interim. 

Even to the untrained eye, that suggests his support is soft and shrinking. Just like Canadians and, to some extent, CPC supporters, many of his aides sense that there's a growing sentiment among people that they're tired of his face and want to move on to someone else who's not a career politician. 

So, in the final analysis, the leader can take his poison as scheduled or likely ingest a far greater dose at a later date. Those are his only choices. 

As for the byelection, you won't see him get anywhere near eighty-two percent. Not a chance in hell of that happening. Expect voter turnout to be underwhelming. His share of the vote should come in around thirty-five percent of those cast. He's running in Alberta because his inner circle didn't want to take the risk of running in Ontario. They concluded that a loss there would finish him off. Watch the result in Battle River - Crowfoot. It could indeed spell the beginning of the end. 

Do We Really Prefer To Lose Than Vote PC?

Are we really that stupid? Would we really prefer a Smith as our leader rather than a Ford, a MacKay or a Mulroney?

The problem with this party is that post-Harper, our penchant has been for losers: Scheer, O'Toole and now this ridiculous clown who is hanging on to the leadership for dear life as if his leadership could provide anything significant in the future. Unpacking diplomatic language, this guy didn't and won't win even if his life depended on it. Voters and Canadians are sick of his face. So, he can byelection his way back into the Commons but it will be all for naught. His high water mark was in the last election, not the next one. Liberals are praying that he stays. Conservatives need to ask him to leave: the byelection results won't be bad. They'll be a disaster. Just wait and see. It's all rapidly downhill going forward if this guy stays as our leader. At least the Liberals are having a good laugh.

CPC: Our Leader.

I had sworn to myself, and to fellow party members, that I would not take the fight to the leader, this time. But the ongoing campaign to prevent me from expressing my opinion changed all that. They asked for it, repeatedly, and now they will get it with relish.

I will gladly front for those who demand and expect a change in party leader. Those are Conservatives who are exclusively concerned with winning, not cementing in place an inadequate leader who is far from well-suited to the task at hand.

This group of Conservatives is not a group of losers. Like the Liberals, we believe that winning is the ONLY thing that matters politically. And so we shall endeavour to effect top-to-bottom change in the leadership. Either we succeed, or the CPC is already condemned to successive defeat in future elections. Winning is all about the man or woman who leads the party. Clearly, our leader is not up to the job. A plurality of voters have already spoken unequivocally, especially in his own riding. He needs to move on, or if necessary, help to move on. I will do what I can with that in mind.

Texas Flash Floods Are The Beginning Of The End For Trump.

In four letters: FEMA. Trump is already done and dusted.

CPC: Caucus, Senators, Members and Supporters Largely Don't Get It.

Centre-right, especially with a progressive bent, often wins elections. The CPC was never founded as centre-right. It was always in no-man's land somewhere vaguely between centre-right and Bernier's far-right. When people soured on Martin, Harper was given a chance and then won two more elections. However, as soon as Harper finally got a majority, he blew it by moving further right than at least a plurality of voters were willing to accept. 

The leader understands none of this, and it shows. All that CBC and anti-woke garbage are not serious political issues. They're right-wing-wet-dream-useless-distractions. People heard that come out of his mouth and often concluded that he's some kind of ideological litmus-test nutcase. It didn't sound as if it reflected common Canadian values. You know, inclusion,  acceptance, not exclusion or disdain. 

So, that's why the leader lost and likely will continue losing. But your average Conservative MP, Senator, supporter and voter are fine with it. Too bad that. In short, we're stuck with him. 

Brasil: MoronTrumpTM mais uma vez escolhe um lado.

O fascista americano interferiu na política brasileira e criticou a decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal de ordenar que o ex-presidente Bolsonaro e outros fossem julgados por uma suposta tentativa de golpe para permanecer no poder em 2022. A próxima eleição no Brasil está marcada para 2026, e Bolsonaro está constitucionalmente impedido de concorrer novamente até 2030. Uma segunda decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal levou à proibição de sua candidatura em 2026.

Trump impôs tarifas de 50%, e o presidente Lula indicou que o Brasil imporá suas próprias tarifas na mesma proporção. O Brasil é um dos poucos países onde os Estados Unidos têm superávit comercial, então a medida de Trump é amplamente interpretada como um tiro no próprio pé.

Alguns argumentam que as tarifas de Trump tinham como objetivo fortalecer a posição política de Bolsonaro, enquanto outros argumentam que o apoio ativo de Trump só fará com que a popularidade de Bolsonaro diminua ainda mais. De acordo com relatos, pelo menos metade dos brasileiros tem uma opinião negativa do ex-presidente. Diante desse fato, não será surpresa se o candidato presidencial de direita no próximo ano for, no fim das contas, alguém que não seja Bolsonaro. Apesar da impopularidade de Lula, se ele jogar a carta do nacionalismo, isso poderá reviver sua sorte política e lhe dar uma vantagem nas eleições do próximo ano. Observe o tamanho das multidões. No momento, minha aposta é na esquerda.

Musk Hard At Work.

Job One: The America Party.

Job Two: A Constitutional amendment to modify Article Two, Section 1, clause 5.

Texas Flash Flooding Disaster: Trump Hard At Work As Usual Creating Misery For Everyone.

The TrumpMoronsTM don't get it: you can't cut essential services just so your billionaire friends can get the biggest tax cuts in American history while the deficit balloons to the highest level ever. It was Trump who cut NOAA's budget and decimated future FEMA funding, largely transferring that responsibility to the states. And it's those same cowards who are running away from responsibility for this tragedy, so much so that their minions dash out of the room at press conferences when the media try to pin the tail on the responsible donkeys. Typically MAGA. Nutcases have come up with conspiracy theories to try and somehow blame third parties who don't serve in The Trump White House. Think MTG and other assorted idiots. 

Meanwhile, the President with no soul still has much more work to do. Now he's cutting Medicaid, which largely will affect rural America, which more often than not votes both Republican and MAGA. Will MAGA supporters roll over, like they do in Congress, or will they come out fighting politically? Don't bet the farm on it. 

Moore Is Wrong, Axworthy Is Right.

None of us is in the room, but that is entirely irrelevant given Trump's abnormal psychological profile. Trump, in the room or otherwise, is out to ROLL US and every other trade partner across the globe. The sociopath wants the United States to win while all other international trade partners lose big. End of story.

Trump = The Ultimate Moron...

Yeah, right. He's going to take a look at deporting Musk, you know, an American citizen. Brain dead oaf with three and a half more years to royally screw everything up.

Carney: What A Fucking Wimp!

This guy is clueless in general and particularly about asshole Trump: they're laughing their asses off in DC, especially at the White House where the blonde dimwit said that Carney had C-A-V-E-D...

Scraping the Digital Services Tax is irresponsible and sets an absolute precedent where the United States will demand that we scrap supply management next, or no trade deal. And what will the prime ministerial dolt do then? This guy is a total joke. 

Meanwhile, Pierre suggests that the Americans drop all softwood duties -- not happening in a million years, that or anything else. So expect to get rolled in those so-called trade talks. That's what's coming, as sure as I'm breathing. What a bunch of clueless fools in Ottawa...

The TrumpTwitTM Sinks Ever Lower.

The Bertrand affair is but the latest in the outrageous and sad manifestations of a man on the point of going mad. Trump has proven himself to be beyond measure in his level of indecency and crass political maneuvering. Trump would have the press come to him on bended knee, never questioning his always self-serving interpretation of the facts. The bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is a case in point. 

Trump, with his total destruction preoccupation, will give no quarter to any journalistic organization that does not immediately fall into line behind his assessment of the situation. It is good journalism to debate the merits of any story. In the end, the facts will clearly and inevitably lead where they must. In subsequent days, it became evident that Trump's view of the end results was much closer to the truth than earlier speculations that Iran's facilities were only partially damaged and could become operational once again in relatively short order. The IAEA spoke of considerable, even enormous, damage. That would seem to settle the point. However, it does not in any way justify Trump's demented obsession with CNN in general and Bertrand in particular. CNN does well to forcefully advocate in favour of its journalists. Any professional and credible journalistic entity would do no less. Trump or no Trump.

Rodriguez : Ses 52 % valent presque le double.

Pablo est désormais solidement établi à la tête du Parti libéral du Québec, et son élection n'a suscité pratiquement aucune controverse ni désaccord. Cela n'a rien de surprenant, étant donné qu'il s'agit du PLQ, mais Rodriguez dispose également d'un atout majeur : sa personnalité naturellement calme et respectueuse, même envers ses adversaires et ses détracteurs. Pablo normalement ne fait pas de vagues négatives en politique. Au contraire : l'électeur moyen a soit une attitude positive envers Rodriguez, soit, au pire, une impression neutre qui pourrait être influencée lors des prochaines élections. C'est un avantage considérable par rapport à Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, le chef du PQ. Ce dernier, qui semble se prendre pour Jésus, a une personnalité plutôt haute en couleur : il se dispute avec ses alliés à Ottawa et même avec Blanchet, car selon PSPP, il a toujours raison. Vu d'en haut et sur terre, Pablo a une personnalité beaucoup plus flexible et passive. Selon le dicton, Rodriguez n'a apparemment pas de véritables ennemis en politique. Comme le disent les anglophones, Pablo a une vibe cool. À suivre.

Même au sein du parti, les autres candidats à la direction ont tacitement soutenu la candidature de Rodriguez ! Ils auraient pu adopter une stratégie selon laquelle Milliard et Blackburn se seraient choisis mutuellement en deuxième position sur leurs bulletins de vote, mais les stratèges des deux camps n'ont apparemment même pas envisagé cette possibilité. En fait, la résistance à la candidature de Pablo était plutôt tiède. 

La grande force de Rodriguez réside dans son pouvoir de persuasion naturel. Cela pourrait être très profitable pour le parti lors des prochaines élections. Divers sondages vont déjà dans ce sens. Pallas confirme que l'avance du Parti québécois n'est que de cinq points. Si les élections avaient lieu aujourd'hui, le PLQ obtiendrait 26 % des voix et le PQ 31 %. Quant au dernier sondage Léger, l'écart n'est que de deux points, avec 28 % pour le PLQ et 30 % pour le PQ. Il n'est donc pas déraisonnable de conclure que Pablo pourrait continuer à gagner du terrain dans les sondages. De plus, les libéraux auront l'objectif de prendre l'avance dans les sondages. 

D'ici le jour du scrutin, Rodriguez sera un homme de terrain. Ce qui était autrefois impossible ne l'est soudainement plus. Nous verrons le jour d'élections. 

Spark: 38% Of Conservative Voters Now Give Carney High Marks.

No kidding...I wonder who has been saying that since election night. Oh, right.

Pierre might as well save all of us time and wasted effort at the convention. He should resign now, but he won't—not in a million years. So, the CPC will go off the cliff in the next election, with Carney getting a majority. As Warren would say, "You're welcome!"

Iran Has Nothing To Lose Now Thanks To Trump.

The Iranian response against both the United States and Israel won't be pretty. The American attacks on the nuclear uranium enrichment sites were foolish in the extreme. The Iranians have been itching to get back at Trump since Soleimani's assassination. There's no way that this will be One And Done. No chance in hell of that. We all know what's coming next. They better be on their toes.

Iran has the most sophisticated terrorist network across the globe. No one else even comes close. And they will put that to work with relish. As usual, innocent civilians will be the first ones to pay the ultimate price. Ditto for military personnel, especially those based across the Middle East. Unlike the United States, Iran always takes action when a perceived big red line has been crossed. The chances of de-escalation and peace are at zero. Only Trump is stupid and naive enough to believe otherwise.

Trump Invites Terrorism To The Homeland.

And it's coming in spades and soon. 

Natural Resources Progress Report.

Abrasilver: +142%;

Alamos: +41%;

Anfield: +58%;

B2: +21%;

Bannerman: +931%;

BTU: +35%;

Cerro de Pasco: +240%;

Coeur: +20%;

Discovery: +49%;

Empress: +40%;

EMX: +25%;

Forsys: +6%;

Greenheart: +250%;

Hudbay: +93%;

Integra: +85%;

Lavras: +560%;

Lumina: +64%;

Mako: +47%;

Maple: +14%;

Maritime: +123%;

Metalla: +7%;

Nexgen: +40%;

Orezone: +55%;

Osisko Metals: +56%;

Paladin: +54%;

Pan American: +225%;

Plata Latina: +31%;

Radisson: +98%;

Rio2: +41%;

Sandstorm: +56%;

Santacruz: +261%;

Shamaran: +209%;

Silverstorm: +4%;

Source Rock: +18%;

Sprott Physical Uranium: +105%;

Stillwater: +47%;

Stinger: +106%;

Thor: +214%;

Tourmaline: +13%;

Triple Flag: +85%;

Troilus: +35%;

Uranium Energy: +62%;

Vox: +65%.

Xi Jinping: Health Crisis And Planned Retirement?

Is it really coming in September? Was Xi Jinping just a figurehead?

Why The Conservatives Are Damned If They Do And Damned If They Don't.

Let's start with context: Ignatieff supported Harper in 2009 for about a year. The Liberals later withdrew supply and confidence and defeated the government. The end result: Harper's re-election. This is where we are now: the Conservatives backed the Liberals' major projects bill, sending it to the Senate. When Parliament comes back in the fall, what will happen then? Will Poilièvre support government bills on a piecemeal basis or more generally? Either way, the lack of opposition implies consent at least in most voters' minds. Put another way, Conservative acquiescence suggests that the government is doing a good job across the board, whether the party actually believes that or not. It's a little like death by a thousand cuts. 

The alternative is to find a dance partner and defeat the government at the Conservatives' pleasure. This is the ultimate high-risk strategy. It would trigger an election, one that would likely return the Liberals with a majority. Talk about two unpalatable alternatives for a government in waiting. 

In my mind, we've got to get to spring before this thing blows up. At that point, the Conservatives withdraw supply and confidence or wait for better polling numbers in the fall. But either way, an election will come next year. It's like rolling the dice and coming up snake eyes. Picking our poison will be the order of the day. 

Iran: This Is ONLY About Regime Change.

Netanyahu claims this is about preventing Iran from eventually deploying nuclear missiles, when in fact the overall objective is far broader: regime change in Tehran. Trump shares that goal. No one in the West will look at that with disdain; however, the cost of such action could be catastrophic for both countries, not to mention the region. 

It is way beyond folly to suggest that a nuclear-armed Iran would use its weapons against its neighbours. No country has done so since the end of the Second World War. It's my contention that Iran has already had ample time to develop at least primitive but operational warheads. The question becomes what the regime will do once cornered. There can be no doubt that Israel has far greater military capability than Iran, but war is always an imponderable and unpredictable creature. Think Iraq and Afghanistan.

Add to the fact that Trump is intent upon joining the conflict and providing Israel support by deploying MOP-bunker busters against the nuclear uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz. Only the B2 can effectively deploy these munitions. Once the United States takes direct action, Americans at home and abroad will become legitimate soft targets, at least in the eyes of Iran and its proxies. It goes without saying that American military assets around the globe would also come under threat of attack. 

The other aspect worth mentioning is what will happen at The Arab League. Will the organization be able to hold together and take a common position on the Israeli-Iranian war, or will it splinter into factions, and what will be the regional consequences of such action? The organization must do all it can to prevent this war from widening into a regional conflict. At this stage, one wonders if that is even remotely possible. War is a beast that will likely severely bloody both sides before it's over, and it won't end anytime soon. Ukraine is proof enough of that. 

Karen, What A Great Loss.

Carpenters - Hurting Each Other - Restored/Remastered HD HQ Audio Remix

Poilièvre Is A CPC Slow-Motion Train Wreck.

So, the leadership "review" will come at the convention in January, and ninety-five percent of the trained seals will vote to keep this guy as leader. Then, three months later, we will go into a not-so-surprise election and the Liberals will wipe the floor with Pierre and his acolytes. 

The CPC is the only party that lives for and will do absolutely everything possible to lose in every election. This next one will deliver a majority to Carney and his dolts. And the only person who'll be surprised is some guy named Pierre, along with SaintByrneTM, of course.

Pablo l'emporte !

Il faut beaucoup de courage pour assumer ce rôle de chef du Parti Libéral du Québec. Nous devons, à tout le moins, reconnaître le mérite de Pablo à cet égard. Un grand défi l'attend.

What Some People Won't Do To Stay Out Of Jail...

Boom. At the very least, a new Middle East war. 

Glad My Name Isn't Poilièvre!

Steve Boots NAILS IT on YouTube:

The Fall Of Pierre Poilievre

Like I said, Barber's Adagio for Strings. CPC Funeral music for the next election...

Glad My Name Isn't Musk.

Enough said.

Proudly Pro-Gould I Remain.

Carney is such a fucking hypocrite. Gould dared to stand up to him legitimately in the leadership race, and now he holds that against her. He better not try to wave off Karina.

I always go out of my way to tear down female and male politicians that I don't think are worth two-shits. True to myself, I also try to do the same regarding politicians who are clearly stars.

Gould and I aren't in the same party, but Karina is a brilliant star. For Carney to deliberately underutilize her immense talents is way beyond despicable. Maybe Mark needs to have an eye-opening conversation with Diana, among others. Women, take notice.

How To LOSE Elections!

Let's see...Harper didn't listen to me. Scheer didn't, O'Toole and Poilièvre didn't. Neither did Trudeau.

Is it just me, or is there a pattern there? LOL.

La bataille des sondages : Blackburn est satisfait, Rodriguez et Milliard s'y opposent.

Blackburn est un organisateur né, et cela se voit sur le terrain. Lorsque nous voyons les autres candidats en mode protestation, nous savons que l'équipe de Blackburn a réussi un coup de maître. Dès le début, j'ai pensé que Rodriguez ne parviendrait pas à faire de percées significatives dans les régions. Le public avait une opinion positive de Pablo, mais parmi les membres du parti, l'effet persuasif était plutôt mitigé. Rodriguez bénéficie du soutien de la moitié du caucus, mais seulement d'environ un tiers des adhérents du parti.

Un sondage Mainstreet a été commandé par Blackburn, mais sans aucune indication que l'équipe de Blackburn en était à l'origine. Cela semble enfreindre une règle non écrite du parti. Cependant, le parti a officieusement indiqué qu'il ne prendrait aucune mesure ni n'imposerait aucune sanction à l'encontre de Blackburn. Comme le dit le célèbre proverbe anglais : « En amour et à la guerre, tous les coups sont permis ! »

Mais pour commenter de manière crédible et juste, il faut se demander où et quelles sont les données ? Aujourd'hui, Blackburn a non seulement le devoir, mais aussi l'obligation de rendre ces chiffres publics.

La CAQ doit se débarrasser de Legault.

Il est amusant de voir Legault insister sur le fait qu'il ne va nulle part. Mais en réalité, Legault est le prochain Trudeau. La CAQ a deux choix : soit se départir de son chef, soit assister à l'effondrement du parti. C'est aussi simple que cela. Les députés doivent prendre en main l'avenir du parti, sinon ils s'engageront sur la voie de la destruction, où le parti risque de remporter moins de dix sièges lors des prochaines élections.

Pour la CAQ, le pire scénario électoral, sous la direction d'un nouveau chef, serait de voir une course à trois. Ce serait bien mieux que ce qui l'attend aux prochaines élections avec Legault comme chef et premier ministre. 

Il est clair que Legault fait passer ses intérêts personnels avant ceux du parti. Nous verrons si le caucus parlementaire de la CAQ est d'accord lorsque l'Assemblée nationale reprendra sa prochaine session.

Pablo ne se présentera pas dans l'Estrie.

Il est déjà clair que Rodriguez ne se présentera pas dans l'Estrie, malgré ses liens familiaux. Ce n'est pas un homme des régions. Idéalement, Tanguay devrait être persuadé de prendre sa retraite pour le bien du parti afin de permettre à Pablo de se présenter dans LaFontaine. À défaut, son deuxième scénario préféré serait probablement la circonscription d'Anjou-Louis-Riel.

PLQ: Mon bulletin.

Parti Libéral du Québec: Mon bulletin de vote.

1.    Blackburn

2.    Bélanger ?

3.    Milliard ?

4.    Rodriguez ?

5.    Roy

L'heure des grandes décisions.

McParland: Fair And Reasonable But...

I'm largely in agreement with what McParland writes in The National Post. However, I have a question: Do all of you know what it is? Byrne is the litmus test as to whether the leader's mindset is genuinely focused on substantial reform, both in the way caucus does things and how the leader operates in his office. My contention is that the leader is gaslighting us and has absolutely no intention of modifying the status quo in the OLO, or how he approaches retail politics. So, given that assessment, I want the leader out yesterday.

For its part, caucus has clearly telegraphed that they will not lift a finger to turf him, so I say fine. When the snap election comes, far sooner than conventional wisdom expects, the Carney Liberals will finally get a majority, and we will come off as we usually do: a bunch of naive, foolish, compliant losers who couldn't win an election even with God's help.

The best part of McParland's piece is this: As far as Pierre Poilievre is concerned, there’s nothing to decide. “We had the biggest vote count in our party’s history, the biggest increase in our party’s history, the biggest vote share since 1988, and we’re going to continue to work to get over the finish line,” he replied when asked. That same argument is on offer from other Conservatives keen on moving past the vote that left them once again in second place. [emphasis added.]

That argument is bullshit: Mulroney, a Progressive Conservative, was returned to office with a reduced majority. This genius did not win government, much less a minority. A total rank amateur with no retail politics skills did that. Not some delusional, prideful guy called Pierre. In short, when the leadership vote comes, Poilièvre needs to be given his walking papers. However, caucus foolishly agreed to a review vote in the spring. That will allow the Liberals to go to the polls this fall and win a majority. Oh well, Conservatives shooting themselves in the head once again. What else is new? 

Stating The Obvious: One Of Them Is About To Have A Fatal Accident.

Inevitably, this won't end well for one of them. Coming soon.

Marc Garneau, RIP.

I had the immense honour and privilege to meet Marc during my ten years as a Liberal party member. I never met more of a gentleman than Marc. Later, I was fortunate enough to be among those who supported his leadership run.

Marc always gave the best of himself, and his daily goal was to do all he possibly could for his country and its people. What a fine public servant.

To his family and all those who loved him and to his many friends, I extend my deepest sympathy for your enormous loss. What a wonderful, warm human being. He will be greatly missed, and the example he set for his fellow parliamentarians will hopefully help guide future parliamentarians when they're elected to office.

Marc is once again on a rendezvous in the sky. He will do us proud this time, as he always has.

À la prochaine, Marc.

Ford: For Anyone Who Happens To Already Be A Moron.

What a joke, arguing that Ford is like Trump. Ford leads a right-of-center, moderate, middle-of-the-road government called Progressive Conservative. That's why the Liberal boomers have no hesitation in voting PC in Ontario. 

Ford doesn't talk stupidity like Pierre does: Ford doesn't want to eliminate the CBC, or go on an anti-woke crusade, or abolish foreign aid when people are literally starving far more in those countries than in Canada. We have food insecurity in this country, but not starvation or famine. Ford doesn't buy Poilièvre's bullshit -- that's why Ford keeps winning while Pierre keeps losing. Carney thanks God every day for letting Pierre be our leader. God could never be kinder to Liberals than that. Carney wants Pierre in the House as fast as is humanly possible so the CPC can lose again during a snap surprise election. While we get depressed, at least Ford and Kory will get a well-deserved good laugh when we blow it yet again.

6e débat de la course à la chefferie du PLQ.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀

Milliard:😀 😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀

The CPC Revolt Will Fizzle.

It's largely confined to Quebec, so it will take on zero traction. Pierre will stay as leader, and we will lose again.

Remember that God doesn't want this guy as our prime minister. That's more than obvious. You reap what you sowed in politics, and he sowed plenty. We all know how Pierre really comes off. End of story.

Pierre And Taube Are IDIOTS...

Taube writes the following in The National Post:

"That’s why Poilievre’s strategy is crystal clear. Ignore the noise and faux outrage in Conservative circles and elsewhere — and let Byrne run his next national campaign."

Pierre's position became obvious after a month of no signals from the leader that Byrne is out. As a result, I've realized that Pierre will sleepwalk right through the next campaign with SaintByrneTM by his side, and straight off the electoral cliff, they'll go hand in hand. This election was Pierre's high-water mark. He won't do any better next time. In fact, we will lose our gains in Ontario thanks to his lack of leadership. 

The next election, which will come quickly and according to Carney's timetable, will have nothing to do with Trump. Conventional wisdom says we lost because of Trump, but no one talks about the elephant in the room that Poilièvre and Byrne are prideful and committed d****. Every sentient Conservative already knows it and foolishly is prepared to put up with that. So, it's inevitable that we will lose again against Carney and lose big. Einstein's theory of insanity is alive and well in the Conservative Party. The Liberals couldn't be happier. They view us as serial losers, and they're right.

Pierre already knows that he will never, ever, win a seat in Ontario again. That's why the by-election is in Alberta, where thinking people would gladly elect anyone as their MPs. As a result, Pierre wins handily and then down the road to electoral perdition the CPC will go. It's coming for the party, sooner rather than later.

Caucus has decided to be obedient lemmings. I hope they enjoy the second Carney government!

Why Is Trudeau Still An MP?

After these election results, is it unreasonable to conclude that Carney is the next Clark and that you are the next Pierre Elliott Trudeau? Interesting. What do the good voters of Papineau know that I don't?

What A Pathetic Little Dickhead...

Up to four Paramount+ e-mails and counting.

I wonder if the little jackoff reads 'em?

Go fuck yourself.

If Pierre Does Not Replace Byrne Then Caucus Needs To Remove Him.

It's really as simple as that. The clock is ticking.

I'm tired of being perceived as a bunch of losers who can't win an election after having a thirty point lead. Byrne needs to go for that. She either takes responsibility and goes or it gets laid on Pierre's doorstep and he gets to be replaced. It's either or.

Trump's Golden Dome Grifting.

A total joke, just like Carney and his cabinet. Nothing more than a boondoggle for the American defence industry. And like any of their projects, the final cost will be between five and ten times what they quoted. Surprise, surprise.

To be worth the money, it would have to guarantee a one-hundred-percent success rate, and that's impossible. Remember that the only credible threat will come under a WWIII scenario. The Golden Dome would have to be able to intercept all ICBMs and hypersonic missiles, and it will NEVER be able to do so.

It's like their precious carrier fleet: just overwhelm a carrier with a hundred missiles, and then that carrier is gone.

Chefferie 2025 : Débat de la Commission-Jeunesse du PLQ.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

غزة: نتنياهو يخدع نفسه.

يصر نتنياهو على مواصلة الحرب في غزة. إنه ينوي القضاء على حماس، لكن كل عاقل يعلم بالفعل أن هذا لن يحدث أبدًا. يمكن للجيش الإسرائيلي البقاء في غزة لعقد من الزمن، ومع ذلك لن يتم القضاء على حماس. هناك عدة أسباب لذلك: البدء بفكرة أنه لا يمكنك قتل فكرة مهما كانت بغيضة. سوفوكليس.

ثم يأتي بعد ذلك حقيقة أن هناك ما لا يقل عن مليوني شخص يعيشون في غزة، وحماس لا تجد صعوبة في الاندماج مع السكان المدنيين. وأخيرًا، لا توجد قوة داخلية في غزة قادرة على كسر قبضة حماس الخانقة على القطاع.

وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن حكومة نتنياهو تتعامل بشكل أساسي مع الرهائن المتبقين كقطع شطرنج قابلة للاستهلاك. ونحن نعلم جميعًا أن ال 25 الذين ما زالوا على قيد الحياة لن يعودوا طالما أن الجيش الإسرائيلي موجود في غزة. لا بد أن هذا عذاب خالص للعائلات. 

وأخيرًا، يقوم نتنياهو بصياغة سياسة الحكومة في ضوء ما يمكنه الإفلات به في مواجهة الأمريكيين. ولهذا السبب بدأنا أخيرًا نرى أخيرًا بعض ضوء النهار بينه وبين ترامب. المهم أن الرئيس الأمريكي تعمد عدم زيارة إسرائيل خلال جولته في الشرق الأوسط. وقد فهم نتنياهو الرسالة وهو غاضب. 

لذا، في النهاية، على حكومته أن تتعلم الدروس القاسية التي تعلمتها إسرائيل في الماضي. فكر في الضفة الغربية وسوريا وخاصة لبنان. حرب يعقبها جمود وانسحاب في نهاية المطاف. هذه الحقيقة لا تخفى على أحد سوى نتنياهو. إنها لعبة محصلتها صفرية.

لن ينتهي التهديد الإرهابي لحماس إلا عندما تصبح الظروف مواتية لنبذ الإرهاب، وهو ما لن يحدث أبدًا طالما أن نتنياهو وقيادة حماس الحالية في مكانها. فالحرب تولد الحرب وليس السلام. فدورة الحرب مستمرة. لا يمكن تحقيق السلام إلا من خلال تبادل الأراضي والضمانات الأمنية المتبادلة. حتى الأحمق يعرف ذلك.

Gaza: Netanyahu Is Way Beyond Delusional.

Netanyahu insists on continuing the war in Gaza. His intention is to root out Hamas, but every sentient person already knows that will never happen. The IDF could be in Gaza for a decade, and still, Hamas would not be decimated. There are several reasons for that: start with the concept that you can't kill an idea, however loathsome it may be. Sophocles.

Next comes the fact that there are at least two million Gazans on the ground, and Hamas has no difficulty blending in with the civilian population. Finally, no internal force exists in Gaza capable of breaking Hamas' stranglehold on the territory.

Add to that that the Netanyahu government is basically treating the remaining hostages as expendable chess pieces. We all know that the twenty-five who are still alive will not return as long as the IDF is in Gaza. That must be pure agony for the families. 

Finally, Netanyahu shapes government policy in light of what he can get away with vis-à-vis the Americans. That's why we're finally beginning to see some daylight between him and Trump. It was not insignificant that the American president deliberately did not visit Israel during his Middle East trip. Netanyahu got the message and is pissed. 

So, in the end, his government has to learn the hard lessons that Israel did in the past. Think of the West Bank, Syria and especially Lebanon. War, followed by stalemate and ultimately withdrawal. That fact escapes no one other than Netanyahu. It's the ultimate zero-sum game.

The Hamas terrorist threat will only end when conditions are such that they can renounce terrorism, and that will never happen as long as Netanyahu and the current Hamas leadership are in place. War begets war, not peace. The cycle of war continues. Peace can only come with land swaps and mutual security guarantees. Even a fool knows that.

נתניהו הוא מרמה את עצמו. נתניהו

נתניהו מתעקש להמשיך את המלחמה בעזה. הוא מתכוון להשמיד את החמאס, אבל כל אדם בעל תודעה יודע שזה לעולם לא יקרה. הצבא הישראלי יכול להישאר בעזה במשך עשור, אבל החמאס לא יושמד. ישנן מספר סיבות לכך: התחילו עם הרעיון שאתם לא יכולים להרוג רעיון, לא משנה כמה הוא פוגעני. סופוקלס... ויש גם את העובדה שיש בעזה לא פחות משני מיליון אזרחים, ולחמאס אין שום קושי להשתלב באוכלוסייה האזרחית. לבסוף, אין כוח פנימי בעזה המסוגל לשבור את אחיזת החנק של חמאס ברצועת עזה. בנוסף, ממשלת נתניהו רואה בבני הערובה הנותרים כלי שחמט. כולנו יודעים שעשרים וחמישה לא יחזרו כל עוד הצבא הישראלי נמצא בעזה. זה בטח ייסורים טהורים למשפחות. לבסוף, נתניהו מגבש את מדיניות הממשלה לאור החוסן הנתפס שלו נגד האמריקאים. זו הסיבה שסוף סוף התחלנו לראות את אור היום בינו לבין טראמפ. לא היה זה חסר חשיבות שהנשיא האמריקאי לא ביקר בישראל במכוון במהלך ביקורו במזרח התיכון. הוא הבין את המסר והתעצבן. לכן, בסופו של דבר, על ממשלתו ללמוד את הלקחים הקשים שישראל עשתה בעבר. חשבו על הגדה המערבית, סוריה ובעיקר לבנון. מלחמה, שלאחריה קיפאון ובסופו של דבר נסיגה. עובדה זו אינה בורחת מאף אחד מלבד נתניהו. זה משחק סכום האפס האולטימטיבי. איום הטרור של החמאס יסתיים רק כאשר התנאים יאפשרו להם לוותר על הטרור, וזה לא יקרה כל עוד נתניהו והנהגת החמאס הנוכחית יהיו במקומם. מלחמה מולידה מלחמה, לא שלום. מעגל המלחמה נמשך. השלום יכול לבוא רק עם חילופי שטחים וערבויות ביטחון הדדי. אפילו טיפש יודע את זה.

Byrne: Patriquin Hits The Ball Out Of The Park.

Patriquin said on CBC News Network that if Byrne is around, the CPC in general and the leader in particular become less likable and less electable. Bingo!

The sand has already shifted under the leader's feet: he has to realize that the new Pierre must be believed by people in the party and among the public. Pierre must demonstrate that he's evolved since the loss and that his mindset and way of doing things have genuinely changed to deal with the circumstances related to the run-up to the next election. His public and private demonstration of that cannot be credible if he digs in his heels and insists that Byrne remain. For at least a plurality of CPC MPs, Byrne is now THE litmus test going forward. She must go. If Byrne stays, that annoyance and dissatisfaction will inevitably be transferred to the leader. In short, as I put it a while back, it's either Byrne or Pierre who walks. 

Pierre must face a leadership review in the wake of the election loss. That likely will mean serious trouble if Byrne is still around. This decision won't be easy for the leader, given that Byrne was largely the architect of his leadership win, has a longstanding business and personal relationship with Pierre, and years ago, was his lover. But when push comes to shove, you've got to cut people out, and Byrne must be the first to go. If Pierre still doesn't get that, just ask Butts. He can tell you how cutting your losses goes in a PMO or OLO. That deafening sound you hear is the bus approaching.

Pablo enfin sur la défensive.

Cela démontre clairement deux choses : le débat à Québec a clairement confirmé que Rodriguez est en tête et que les autres candidats sont en train de le rattraper. C'est pourquoi les autres candidats ont uni leurs forces pour freiner l'élan de Pablo.

La question qui tue reste la même. Les autres candidats peuvent-ils empêcher Rodriguez d'être choisi comme chef ? L'avenir nous le dira. À défaut de Anyone But Pablo, Rodriguez risque de gagner la course.

4e débat de la course à la chefferie à Québec.

J'ai eu le plaisir d'assister à ce débat.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

CPC MPs: Time To Push Byrne Out.

When a party loses an election it should have won, given a multi-year lead in the polls, there have to be consequences for not winning: in this instance, it's already conventional wisdom that the leader is safe, having increased our seat count and popular vote. But MPs must demand accountability for what went wrong; in this case, the buck must stop with Byrne. The campaign's tone has to be of concern as it likely turned off enough voters to deny us the win. Some of those commercials were appalling and definitely cost us votes. Someone has to pay the consequences for those bad decisions, and obviously, MPs and Senators are not prepared to lay that blame at the leader's feet. 

Any push to remove Byrne will also be a test for the leader: he will get to gauge the mood in the room and can either give way and respect the view of at least a plurality or majority of MPs or hold fast. If he blocks any move to replace Byrne, his position will begin to be undermined in caucus. The leader must remember that our loss is partially due to how he handled himself during the campaign. He lost his own seat, one he held for twenty years, and that should not only be a point of reflection but also a flashing red sign that he must change his ways going forward. As we say in French: faut le faire, losing one's own riding.

Caucus must be all about genuine accountability and internal consequences for losing. Otherwise, we'll just be papering over the cracks and putting the plane on autopilot until we lose again. 

Carney's Angels: Here They Come!

Leah Gazan, Lori Idlout and Jenny Kwan.

That Carney Judgment: Hire Seven And Then Fire Those Same Seven.

Nothing quite like making enemies in your own party. What a slap in the face! I'll bet none of those MPs would have accepted to be elevated to the ministry had they had the slightest inclination that this was coming. This will come back big time to haunt Carney. He will regret this mightily, probably sooner rather than later. Stay tuned for the impending fireworks.

Liberals Win Terrebonne by One Vote!

170. Two seats away for the party that definitely will sell their souls for a majority. So...now you know what that means. The NDP slackers will willingly crossover, but with the ultimate condition: going straight into cabinet, à la Liberal Democrats, in the UK. Three recounts to go, but no guarantee that two of them will go Liberal, so NDPers in cabinet, here they come next Tuesday!

Европейские шаги к миру в Украине.

Я за то, чтобы Стармер, Макрон, Мерц и Туск приехали в Киев, но для прекращения войны в Украине требуется гораздо больше, чем символическое политическое присутствие в столице. На военном фронте Объединенные экспедиционные силы (ОЭФ) десяти стран Северной Европы, включая Великобританию, согласились работать с Украиной для достижения мира. Это небольшое начало. Но реальные военные изменения в Европе могут произойти только тогда, когда Украина получит территориальные обязательства от двух других континентальных военных структур: 5-тысячных сил быстрого развертывания под руководством Великобритании, которые существуют для защиты граждан ЕС, и, конечно, собственных Сил реагирования Альянса (ARF), в задачу которых входит поддержка территориальной целостности стран-членов. Модель сил НАТО (NFM) - это путь вперед для Альянса.

Я давно утверждаю, что политики не видят полной картины и слишком осторожно относятся к гарантиям безопасности, предоставляемым Украине. Совершенно очевидно, что если бы Украина, например, была приглашена в НАТО, война с Россией закончилась бы на следующий день. У Путина не было бы абсолютно никакого аппетита к этой войне. Она принесет быстро уменьшающуюся военную отдачу и будет войной, которую Россия не сможет выиграть. Даже Путин знает, что применение тактического ядерного оружия означает эскалацию, а это не в интересах России. Миллионы россиян и других европейцев погибнут очень быстро.

Союзники Украины настаивают на 30-дневном прекращении огня, которое Кремль, похоже, не хочет принимать, если не будут выполнены условия Москвы по мониторингу и поддержанию режима прекращения огня. Россия неохотно согласилась на прекращение огня теперь, когда Трамп настаивает на нем, несомненно, к удивлению и раздражению Путина.

В конце концов, разве Украина - это регион, представляющий интерес для ЕС, или театр военных действий НАТО, связанный с коллективной обороной Альянса? На самом деле, Украина уже имеет ассоциированное членство в программе Horizon Europe. Это лишь один маленький шаг на пути к полноправному членству в ЕС. Между тем, администрация Трампа решительно выступает против членства Украины в НАТО.

Таким образом, втягивание в иголку и предоставление Украине адекватных гарантий безопасности не будет идти бок о бок с членством в НАТО. Короче говоря, укрепление военных связей с ЕС может оказаться достаточным для того, чтобы обеспечить восстановление территориальной целостности Украины или, по крайней мере, укрепление ее государственной независимости на той территории, которую она сейчас занимает. Без этого патовая ситуация на местах, скорее всего, сохранится в обозримом будущем. И Украине, и России нужен выход. Получат ли они его, покажет время.

Європейські кроки до миру в Україні.

Я за те, щоб Стармер, Макрон, Мерц і Туск приїхали до Києва, але припинення війни в Україні вимагає набагато більшого, ніж символічна політична присутність у столиці. На військовому фронті Об'єднані експедиційні сили (JEF) десяти північноєвропейських країн, включно з Великою Британією, погодилися працювати з Україною для досягнення миру. Це невеликий початок. Але справжні військові зміни в Європі можуть відбутися лише тоді, коли Україна отримає територіальні зобов'язання від двох інших континентальних військових структур: 5-тисячних сил швидкого розгортання під командуванням Великої Британії, які існують для захисту громадян ЄС, і, звичайно, власних Сил реагування Альянсу (ARF), завданням яких є підтримка територіальної цілісності країн-членів. Модель сил НАТО (NFM) - це шлях вперед для Альянсу.

Я вже давно стверджую, що політики не бачать повної картини і занадто обережно ставляться до гарантій безпеки, наданих Україні. Зрозуміло, що якби Україну, наприклад, запросили до НАТО, війна з Росією закінчилася б наступного дня. Путін не мав би абсолютно ніякого апетиту до цієї війни. Вона запропонувала б швидко зменшувану військову віддачу і війну, в якій Росія не змогла б перемогти. Навіть Путін знає, що застосування тактичної ядерної зброї означатиме ескалацію, яка не в найкращих інтересах Росії. Мільйони росіян та інших європейців загинули б дуже швидко.

Союзники України наполягають на 30-денному припиненні вогню, яке Кремль, схоже, не бажає прийняти, якщо не будуть виконані умови Москви щодо моніторингу та підтримання режиму припинення вогню. Росія неохоче погодилася на припинення вогню тепер, коли Трамп наполягає на цьому, без сумніву, на подив і роздратування Путіна.

Зрештою, чи є Україна регіоном інтересів ЄС або театром операцій НАТО, пов'язаних з колективною обороною Альянсу? Насправді, Україна вже має асоційоване членство в програмі «Горизонт Європа». Це лише один маленький крок до повноправного членства в ЄС. Тим часом адміністрація Трампа рішуче виступає проти вступу України до НАТО.

Отже, нанизування на голку і надання Україні адекватних гарантій безпеки не буде йти пліч-о-пліч з членством в НАТО. Коротше кажучи, сильніші військові зв'язки з ЄС можуть бути достатніми для забезпечення відновлення територіальної цілісності України або принаймні зміцнення її державної незалежності на тій території, яку вона зараз утримує. Без цього патова ситуація на місцях, швидше за все, збережеться в осяжному майбутньому. І Україні, і Росії потрібен вихід. Час покаже, чи отримають вони його.

European Baby Steps Towards Peace In Ukraine.

I'm all for Starmer, Macron, Merz and Tusk travelling to Kyiv, but ending the war in Ukraine will take much more than a symbolic political presence in the capital. On the military front, the ten Northern European-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), which includes the UK, has agreed to partner with Ukraine in the cause of peace. It's a small start. But real military change in Europe can only happen if Ukraine receives a territorial commitment from two other continental military structures: the European Union-led Rapid Deployment Capacity, a force of five thousand under British command mandated to protect EU citizens and of course, NATO's own Allied Reaction Force (ARF) which is charged with maintaining the territorial integrity of NATO states. The NATO Force Model (NFM) is the alliance's way to go going forward. 

I've long argued that the politicians couldn't see the big picture and are far too tentative regarding security guarantees provided to Ukraine. It goes without saying that were Ukraine to be invited to join NATO, for example, the war with Russia would end the next day. Putin would have absolutely no appetite to take on NATO proper. That would be a proposition of rapidly diminishing military returns and a war that Russia could not win. Even Putin knows that to resort to tactical nukes would mean escalating to a war posture that would not be in the best interests of Russia. Millions of Russians and other Europeans would die rapidly. 

Ukraine's allies are pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, one that the Kremlin seemingly has no desire for unless Moscow's conditions around monitoring and maintaining such a ceasefire are met. Russia has begrudgingly come around to a ceasefire now that it's also being pushed by Trump, no doubt much to Putin's astonishment and annoyance.

In the final analysis, is Ukraine a region of EU interest or a theatre of NATO operations related to the alliance's collective defence? Now, that's the crunch-time question, isn't it? In fact, Ukraine already enjoys Horizon Europe associated membership. That's one small step away from full EU membership. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration strenuously opposes Ukraine joining NATO. 

So, threading the needle and providing Ukraine with adequate security guarantees will not pass through NATO membership. In short, increasing military links with the EU would perhaps be sufficient to ensure that Ukraine's territorial integrity is either restored or at least solidified on nation-state territory it presently holds. Without that, the stalemate on the ground likely will continue for the foreseeable future. Ukraine and Russia both need an out. Time will tell if they ultimately get one.

 

3e débat de la course à la chefferie à Gatineau.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

Mr. Integrity Is Trying To Poach NDP MPs.

Liberals are great at one thing: political strategy. But they've got zero integrity or political decency. They're only all about power and keeping it. They don't respect how Canadians voted. Nah, they were denied their entitled majority, and so now the Liberal mind concentrates on stealing NDP MPs. In those ridings, voters chose to support the New Democrats, but respect for those results is not on the Liberal agenda.  Not important, ever, for Carney Liberals.

Pierre Has Called To Set Up A Call With Ford.

It's about time. And he should do the exact same thing with Houston. 

Carney Goes To Washington D.C.

In three sentences: a complete waste of time. NO rhetorical concessions from Trump and definitely no substantive ones. Trump continues to blow smoke in our direction. 

Pierre Gets It: It's Either Byrne or Him So It'll Be Byrne.

So long, Jenni.

The Carleton Message: Here's How The CPC Loses Again To Carney And He Gets A Majority.

The Carleton ballot was the longest ever seen in Canadian history. That told you at least two things: to begin, that many, many, many, people simply hated Pierre's guts either due to his personality, leadership style or policy choices. Secondly, that the left was solidly in line and determined to defeat Pierre in a riding that he held for twenty years.

Part of the loss was due to redistricting. That played a not inconsiderable role, but it wasn't by any stretch of the imagination the decisive factor while Pierre blew up in his own riding. 

The leader has indicated he's staying on and will run in an Alberta byelection. Fair enough. But Pierre needs to recognize the obvious: he and his platform weren't centrist and moderate enough to win government in Canada. It's as simple as that. Real hard right parties do not and will never form government in this country going forward. So, Pierre has a choice. He can tact to the center where most of the votes are and move party policy toward the middle, or he can stay the same and run next time with a comparable platform. Make no mistake that the percentage of the vote we won this time was not even close to being the majority of the popular vote, which we won two times before. In short, the next election construct, whenever it comes, will be this: the CPC either adapts and moves in the direction of a moderate view of the world, à la Ford or Houston, or we stay the same and lose again. See how that works?

If we stay the same policy-wise, then all it will do is likely give Carney his majority next time. Remember that Carney will either call an election or create a crisis and use it as a pretext to call an election when the Liberals know they can win big. So, again, Pierre can adapt and reposition the party or almost inevitably prepare to lose during an election at a time of Carney's choosing. 

Carney wants a majority. So expect an election no later than a year from now and probably before. You know, another new and stronger mandate from the voters to deal with Trump sometime within the next twelve months. Forget the bullshit of two years or longer. The election is coming, and a lot faster than most people think. 

Second official debate of the Quebec Liberal Party leadership race (English Debate).

Bélanger: 😃😃😃😃

Blackburn: 😃😃😃😃

Milliard: 😃😃😃😃😃

Rodriguez: 😃😃😃😃😃

Roy: 😃😃😃😃

Pierre Needs To Get The Message.

Posted at WarrenKinsella.com

Warren,

I will be very blunt in my message for Pierre: once you get back in the House, you’d better listen to all the Conservatives on this website, or you can forget about winning the next election. If you stick with your own preconceived biases and ideas that clearly aren’t sufficient to broaden the tent enough to win, then down the CPC will go again in the next election. And next time, thanks to the leader possibly acting foolishly, Carney will get his majority. Know-it-all leaders rarely know it all. So choose now, Pierre and choose wisely. Otherwise, you’re going to be political history soon enough. That’s cold, calm reality talking.

Premier débat de la chefferie : L'économie du Québec.

Bélanger: 😃😃😃😃😃

Blackburn: 😃😃😃😃😃

Milliard: 😃😃😃😃

Rodriguez: 😃😃😃😃

Roy: 😃😃😃😃

PLQ : L'affaire Marie-Claude Nichols.

Vous vous souvenez sans doute de la bataille entre notre ancienne cheffe et la députée : Anglade voulait lui confier certaines responsabilités et Nichols en voulait d'autres. L'impasse a mené à son expulsion du caucus du PLQ.

Pour ma part, j'ai une question : Je vous rappelle que la cheffe a démissionnée en novembre 2022. Malgré ce fait, la députée indépendante n'a pas vu la nécessité ou l'utilité de joindre les rangs du parti libéral jusqu'à hier ?

Cela nous amène à nous interroger sur le niveau de soutien et de solidarité de Nichols envers notre parti. Eh bien, elle est de retour au bercail et elle a un candidat pour la course à la chefferie. Elle est libre de le faire. Pour tous les membres et militants libéraux, nous devons en tenir compte de son passé controversé lors de nos délibérations sur le choix du prochain chef du parti. Elle n'était pas sûre de revenir, mais la voici.

Tanguay est sur la bonne voie : Legault est le prochain Trudeau.

Si Legault est le prochain Trudeau, cela signifie que Paul St-Pierre Plamondon est susceptible de devenir le prochain Poilièvre. Tanguay a des sources fiables. Bref, la CAQ sait très bien que la fatigue de Legault mènera probablement à une troisième place lors de l'élection prévue en octobre 2026. Contrairement aux libéraux fédéraux, le changement de chef risque d'être entièrement volontaire, malgré les commentaires du premier ministre.

Du côté du PQ, les choses ne vont pas bien : il y a la querelle avec le BQ et l'obstination de PSPP à vouloir tenir un référendum si le Parti québécois accède au pouvoir pour la première fois. En fait, cette position représente un mauvais risque en termes d'accession au pouvoir lors des prochaines élections. Je suis de ceux qui sont convaincus qu'un gouvernement péquiste serait capable de gagner un référendum sur la souveraineté, mais certainement pas dès son premier mandat. Le parti doit d'abord mettre en place et laisser en héritage un bon gouvernement qui aura bien géré son premier mandat. Un gouvernement péquiste doit inspirer confiance aux électeurs pour se donner les meilleures chances de gagner un référendum sur la question nationale.

Mais pour en revenir à la CAQ, le parti n'a rien à perdre en s'engageant dans une course à la chefferie. Comme l'ont démontré les libéraux à Ottawa, c'est toujours et seulement le pouvoir qui compte. Legault restera probablement en poste jusqu'à l'automne, et il y aura alors une course à la direction. La CAQ ne doit pas se contenter de sauver les meubles. Sans course, le parti risque de disparaître.

Tout cela pour dire que le petit Jésus de la politique a encore des leçons à recevoir en matière d'entêtement et de flexibilité politique. Blanchet en a été témoin. S'il y avait des élections au Québec aujourd'hui, PSPP serait presque inévitablement le prochain premier ministre. Mais en politique, un jour est une vie. Demandez à Poilièvre.

The Carney Government's Number One Priority is not TRUMP. It's To Poach Three MPs.

They will do anything and I mean anything to convince three MPs to cross the floor. Bet they're already working on Lizzy and others.

In short, it's going to be a very long four years...

Mister Integrity Not Interested In A Pact With The NDP.

So, of course, they aren't going to poach any NDP MPs to get to their precious majority. You read it here first!

An Apology To The PCs.

In short, I've looked into recent news reports with several sources confirming what appeared in the media. Let's just say to suggest that I'm pissed off is the understatement of the year. As a result, I want to apologize to the PCs without reservation for my previous comments. Someone is going to pay politically even more for this. Count on it.

CPC: Pierre Needs To Stay On.

More likely seats than last time and good gains in Ontario. Caucus needs to line up behind the leader.

Yes!

The luckiest people on Earth are those who love Politics. Nothing else even comes close. What a rush, even when we fight and lose.

Election 2025.

Conservatives: 157

Liberals: 150

Bloc: 25

New Democrats: 10

Greens: 1

Calibre Mining Shareholders Should Vote Against The Merger With Equinox Gold.

The revised offer of 0.35 of an Equinox share is only a ten percent premium. I don't know if it's more skimpy or insulting. Glad I sold my Calibre shares a while back. Still hold Equinox.

Élections 2025 : Blanchet se moque des Québécois qui ont voté non.

Le problème avec Blanchet, c'est qu'il est incapable de se regarder dans le miroir pour voir la triste réalité du Bloc. C'est grâce à son leadership que les appuis du BQ sont fragiles et s'évaporent. On peut le voir dans ses conclusions que le Bloc est susceptible de remporter trente-cinq sièges.

Au lieu de reconnaître cette réalité politique, le chef s'en prend au Canada, et au Canada anglais en particulier. Selon lui, en supposant que Carney formera vraisemblablement le prochain gouvernement, il croit que cette réalité créera un vent de changement en faveur du Bloc. Il est optimiste. C'est le moins que l'on puisse dire de ce qu'il dit.

Si le Canada est un pays artificiel, comme il l'a dit, pourquoi de nombreux électeurs québécois préfèrent-ils les libéraux aux bloquistes ? Il semble y avoir un certain attachement à ce pays. C'est pourquoi les souverainistes ont perdu deux référendums. Le Canada est loin d'être parfait, mais il semble convenir à au moins une majorité de Québécois qui se rendent aux urnes. Blanchet pourrait bien en avoir la preuve lundi prochain.

Blanchet Is Panicking.

Not good. The Liberals must be thrilled. Bloc support must not be rebounding as much as Blanchet was counting on. Oh, well.

Election 2025: This Post Is Thanks To Douglas W.

Douglas pointed out that the Liberals have become nasty and surly. Now, that rang one of my bells. Can you say internal Liberal polls?

Just imagine if the Thursday through Friday internal polls, coupled with the weekend ones, are showing either considerable softening in Liberal support or, more likely, the bottom falling out in Liberal support as the Carney train starts to go off the rails. That would be something unexpected as it is. Most pundits and prognosticators are singing from the Liberal majority hymnbook, with a few predicting only a Liberal minority.

Almost no one is expecting a Conservative government of any kind. Imagine if conventional wisdom is wrong. I'm with Douglas, the ground is shifting in the final days. My best guess is an out-of-right-field CPC minority. 

So This Is A CHANGE Election!

They say everyone loves change. But as always, change is in the eye of the beholder. Ask yourself what Canadians want: do they approve of the Trudeau government, now headed by a political rookie, or do they want drastic change- a breath of fresh air?

Let's start with the polls: they're either mostly consistently accurate or totally off the mark. One side will say that they're telegraphing at least a Liberal government, while the other will claim they're a reflection of the Harris polls, almost all wrong. Some argue that long lines during advanced polling favoured the Liberals, while a counter-claim points out that the crowds were really there in droves in search of fundamental change.

What I'm pondering is how the Conservatives apparently lost almost a thirty-point lead. At first, I was inclined to think that tons of Liberals had parked their vote with the CPC while Trudeau remained LPC leader. But we're talking thirty points here. Upon reflection, it seems unlikely that most of those people were Liberals. As a result, that would suggest that Conservative numbers are being underpolled. If I'm right, we could see a result on election night that will be surprising. Could it be a shocker? I hope so.

Advanced Polls: From Ford To A Federal Election.

Advanced polls: I have no idea what is really going on. When Ford got re-elected, only six percent of Ontarians voted before election day, and Ford was returned with one less seat than he had before. Same thing happened in Nova Scotia last year, where advanced poll voting dropped while Houston increased his majority.

So, what's happening now? There's a lot of grey hair, but solid voter turnout among other groups. Is this a vote for incumbency or one for radical change? Your guess is as good as mine.