Gaza: The Palestinian State Off Ramp Will Happen But Not Peace In Gaza.

Macron and other proponents have it ass-backwards. They argue that recognizing a Palestinian state in September at the UN General Assembly will lead to a ceasefire and the return of Israeli and other hostages. Wrong. Trump agrees with this except for the Palestinian state part, but everyone is full of shit. 

There won't and can't be a permanent ceasefire in Gaza because that would mean returning all hostages to Israel, and the Hamas terrorists can't lose their life preserver. They need to keep some hostages forever, or until they die, otherwise Netanyahu goes full-bore against Hamas to kill every single Hamas fighter and then run the organization into the ground. Hamas knows this only too well, so a genuine, comprehensive ceasefire will never happen. Bibi can kill every Hamas member, but you can't kill an idea, however loathsome it is. Hamas will eventually reconstitute and regroup under new leadership and with scores of new young fighters. So, so much for that, Netanyahu.

My objection to a Palestinian state is one of timing. What kind of message does this send to the families of twelve hundred dead Israelis and other Jews? It's simply monstrous to go ahead with statehood now. However, any intellectually honest person knows that one day a Palestinian state will become inevitable. But, its territory has to be based solely on the West Bank. 

So, like it or not, and definitely, Netanyahu is raging, the domino theory will make it happen. It's kind of ironic that the same thing resulted in Western governments recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, after Trump got the ball rolling. 

France will go first, followed by the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada. It's nuts in the current geopolitical context, but hey, what can I say?

Free Trade: Trump's Bullshit Is Going Full Tilt.

Now, Trump is playing bad cop himself, saying there probably won't be a trade deal with Canada. English translation: he expects Carney to cave 100%. Carney won't do that, so in the end, it will be no deal, which in reality is the last thing that Trump really wants. Good going, moron. Par for the course, Trump.

Carney Ain't All Bad.

He's sort of like Harper, a guy who listened only rarely to what I proposed. But I did get three out of Harper: automobile bailouts, then ministers of state and changes to the national war memorial. Carney, so far, only one: the Council of the Federation. I've been advocating for this for ages, arguing that it should be at least one annual meeting with the Prime Minister. Genius Trudeau, of course, or should I say Telford, knew better than I did. Right.

Politicians Who Did Not Block Our Individual Free Speech Rights.

Fortunately, for Canadians, the partial list is long:

Clark

Chrétien

Martin

Harper

Trudeau

Scheer

O'Toole

Carney

2025: Your Natural Resources Stock Portfolio.

I'm twenty-five percent beta and the rest alpha. But as Rick would say, don't confuse a bull market with brains and a self-induced delusional stock-picking genius. My TFSA is now at +126%, having enjoyed at least on paper two previous gains of +500%, in 2018 and 2020. Guess who did not sell both times. LOL.

Meanwhile, the RRSP is the clear laggard: still at -12%, having previously risen to +47% in both 2018 and 2020. The Cash Account is currently at a modest +7%, while it gained +20% in 2016, +29% the next year, +82% in 2021.

So, the moral of this story is to start out with the best of the best producers and royalty/streaming companies to build your initial nest egg. Then go with people who are serial money makers over multiple decades and countries. Next, move down the quality trail and buy the highest quality intermediates, developers and explorers that you can find. If you do the work, you can't help but be well rewarded. As an example, I sat on Shamaran Petroleum, a Lundin vehicle, for five years before it finally started to move. I'm up in two accounts +294% and +142% respectively. Still holding every single share.

Trump: Doing Everything He Can To Send Bolsonaro To Jail.

The American moron is back, cancelling visas for Brazilian Supreme Court members and demanding that Bolsonaro's trial be halted. What an idiot. As Lula pointed out, the judicial system is independent of the government. He stated that the Executive would not interfere in Bolsonaro's trial.

Meanwhile, federal police raided Bolsonaro's home and party offices, claiming he was obstructing justice and planning to flee the country. Bolsonaro vehemently denies this, arguing that the trial is nothing more than a sham and an attempt to permanently bar him from holding political office. 

Ironically, Trump's continued intervention in Brazilian politics and its legal system is hurting Bolsonaro more than helping him. It has not gone unnoticed that the American president is fighting more vigorously for Bolsonaro than the former president himself.

It is no surprise that, given this reality, the federal police have concluded that Bolsonaro poses a flight risk, likely to the United States, where he would receive, at the very least, refuge, if not asylum. That is why Bolsonaro now wears an electronic ankle cuff.

If Trump had any sense, he would leave Bolsonaro's defence to his lawyers. He is only harming Bolsonaro's case with his constant interference in Brazilian judicial affairs. Bolsonaro needs to tell Trump to stay out of it. If only that were possible. With an ally like Trump, who needs sworn enemies...

Trump: Fazendo tudo o que pode para mandar Bolsonaro para a prisão.

O idiota americano está de volta, cancelando vistos para membros do Supremo Tribunal Federal e exigindo que o julgamento de Bolsonaro seja encerrado. Que idiota. Como Lula apontou, o sistema judicial é independente do governo. Ele afirmou que o Executivo não interferiria no julgamento de Bolsonaro.

Enquanto isso, a polícia federal invadiu a casa e os escritórios do partido de Bolsonaro, alegando que ele estava obstruindo a justiça e planejando fugir do país. Bolsonaro nega veementemente, argumentando que o julgamento não passa de uma farsa e uma tentativa de impedi-lo permanentemente de exercer cargos políticos.

Ironicamente, a intervenção contínua de Trump na política brasileira e em seu sistema jurídico está prejudicando Bolsonaro mais do que ajudando-o. Não passou despercebido que o presidente americano está lutando mais vigorosamente por Bolsonaro do que o próprio ex-presidente.

Não é surpresa que, diante dessa realidade, a polícia federal tenha concluído que Bolsonaro representa um risco de fuga, provavelmente para os Estados Unidos, onde receberia, no mínimo, refúgio, se não asilo. É por isso que Bolsonaro agora usa uma tornozeleira eletrônica.

Se Trump tivesse bom senso, deixaria a defesa de Bolsonaro a cargo de seus advogados. Ele só está prejudicando o caso de Bolsonaro com sua constante interferência nos assuntos judiciais brasileiros. Bolsonaro precisa dizer a Trump para ficar fora disso. Se ao menos isso fosse possível. Com um aliado como Trump, quem precisa de inimigos jurados...

It's An Honour Being Able To Write For You.

Thanks so much to my readers. I hope to keep things interesting going forward. LOL.

Is Poilièvre In Joe Clark Territory?

These are grand times for dissidents. Haven't had this much fun since we tried to dump Harper in 2005. Those were good days!

Last time, we took down O'Toole with help from none other than SaintByrneTM, and now we're going to work hard to exile Byrne, whose company remains on the CPC payroll, and to give the leader the heave-ho. The leader is laughing at us by keeping her around. No surprise there. After all, he always has the right answers.

It warms my heart to hear about the fighting in the OLO: a majority of his advisers, such as they are, favour proceeding as scheduled with the leadership review vote next January, but a significant minority are adamantly against that, fearing that the leader is in Clark territory, namely sixty-seven percent. The latter regard that type of result as insufficient for the leader to carry on and argue that the vote should be put off to the fall of 2026, thereby giving them time to shore up support in the interim. 

Even to the untrained eye, that suggests his support is soft and shrinking. Just like Canadians and, to some extent, CPC supporters, many of his aides sense that there's a growing sentiment among people that they're tired of his face and want to move on to someone else who's not a career politician. 

So, in the final analysis, the leader can take his poison as scheduled or likely ingest a far greater dose at a later date. Those are his only choices. 

As for the byelection, you won't see him get anywhere near eighty-two percent. Not a chance in hell of that happening. Expect voter turnout to be underwhelming. His share of the vote should come in around thirty-five percent of those cast. He's running in Alberta because his inner circle didn't want to take the risk of running in Ontario. They concluded that a loss there would finish him off. Watch the result in Battle River - Crowfoot. It could indeed spell the beginning of the end. 

Do We Really Prefer To Lose Than Vote PC?

Are we really that stupid? Would we really prefer a Smith as our leader rather than a Ford, a MacKay or a Mulroney?

The problem with this party is that post-Harper, our penchant has been for losers: Scheer, O'Toole and now this ridiculous clown who is hanging on to the leadership for dear life as if his leadership could provide anything significant in the future. Unpacking diplomatic language, this guy didn't and won't win even if his life depended on it. Voters and Canadians are sick of his face. So, he can byelection his way back into the Commons but it will be all for naught. His high water mark was in the last election, not the next one. Liberals are praying that he stays. Conservatives need to ask him to leave: the byelection results won't be bad. They'll be a disaster. Just wait and see. It's all rapidly downhill going forward if this guy stays as our leader. At least the Liberals are having a good laugh.

CPC: Our Leader.

I had sworn to myself, and to fellow party members, that I would not take the fight to the leader, this time. But the ongoing campaign to prevent me from expressing my opinion changed all that. They asked for it, repeatedly, and now they will get it with relish.

I will gladly front for those who demand and expect a change in party leader. Those are Conservatives who are exclusively concerned with winning, not cementing in place an inadequate leader who is far from well-suited to the task at hand.

This group of Conservatives is not a group of losers. Like the Liberals, we believe that winning is the ONLY thing that matters politically. And so we shall endeavour to effect top-to-bottom change in the leadership. Either we succeed, or the CPC is already condemned to successive defeat in future elections. Winning is all about the man or woman who leads the party. Clearly, our leader is not up to the job. A plurality of voters have already spoken unequivocally, especially in his own riding. He needs to move on, or if necessary, help to move on. I will do what I can with that in mind.

Texas Flash Floods Are The Beginning Of The End For Trump.

In four letters: FEMA. Trump is already done and dusted.

CPC: Caucus, Senators, Members and Supporters Largely Don't Get It.

Centre-right, especially with a progressive bent, often wins elections. The CPC was never founded as centre-right. It was always in no-man's land somewhere vaguely between centre-right and Bernier's far-right. When people soured on Martin, Harper was given a chance and then won two more elections. However, as soon as Harper finally got a majority, he blew it by moving further right than at least a plurality of voters were willing to accept. 

The leader understands none of this, and it shows. All that CBC and anti-woke garbage are not serious political issues. They're right-wing-wet-dream-useless-distractions. People heard that come out of his mouth and often concluded that he's some kind of ideological litmus-test nutcase. It didn't sound as if it reflected common Canadian values. You know, inclusion,  acceptance, not exclusion or disdain. 

So, that's why the leader lost and likely will continue losing. But your average Conservative MP, Senator, supporter and voter are fine with it. Too bad that. In short, we're stuck with him. 

Brasil: MoronTrumpTM mais uma vez escolhe um lado.

O fascista americano interferiu na política brasileira e criticou a decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal de ordenar que o ex-presidente Bolsonaro e outros fossem julgados por uma suposta tentativa de golpe para permanecer no poder em 2022. A próxima eleição no Brasil está marcada para 2026, e Bolsonaro está constitucionalmente impedido de concorrer novamente até 2030. Uma segunda decisão do Supremo Tribunal Federal levou à proibição de sua candidatura em 2026.

Trump impôs tarifas de 50%, e o presidente Lula indicou que o Brasil imporá suas próprias tarifas na mesma proporção. O Brasil é um dos poucos países onde os Estados Unidos têm superávit comercial, então a medida de Trump é amplamente interpretada como um tiro no próprio pé.

Alguns argumentam que as tarifas de Trump tinham como objetivo fortalecer a posição política de Bolsonaro, enquanto outros argumentam que o apoio ativo de Trump só fará com que a popularidade de Bolsonaro diminua ainda mais. De acordo com relatos, pelo menos metade dos brasileiros tem uma opinião negativa do ex-presidente. Diante desse fato, não será surpresa se o candidato presidencial de direita no próximo ano for, no fim das contas, alguém que não seja Bolsonaro. Apesar da impopularidade de Lula, se ele jogar a carta do nacionalismo, isso poderá reviver sua sorte política e lhe dar uma vantagem nas eleições do próximo ano. Observe o tamanho das multidões. No momento, minha aposta é na esquerda.

Musk Hard At Work.

Job One: The America Party.

Job Two: A Constitutional amendment to modify Article Two, Section 1, clause 5.

Texas Flash Flooding Disaster: Trump Hard At Work As Usual Creating Misery For Everyone.

The TrumpMoronsTM don't get it: you can't cut essential services just so your billionaire friends can get the biggest tax cuts in American history while the deficit balloons to the highest level ever. It was Trump who cut NOAA's budget and decimated future FEMA funding, largely transferring that responsibility to the states. And it's those same cowards who are running away from responsibility for this tragedy, so much so that their minions dash out of the room at press conferences when the media try to pin the tail on the responsible donkeys. Typically MAGA. Nutcases have come up with conspiracy theories to try and somehow blame third parties who don't serve in The Trump White House. Think MTG and other assorted idiots. 

Meanwhile, the President with no soul still has much more work to do. Now he's cutting Medicaid, which largely will affect rural America, which more often than not votes both Republican and MAGA. Will MAGA supporters roll over, like they do in Congress, or will they come out fighting politically? Don't bet the farm on it. 

Moore Is Wrong, Axworthy Is Right.

None of us is in the room, but that is entirely irrelevant given Trump's abnormal psychological profile. Trump, in the room or otherwise, is out to ROLL US and every other trade partner across the globe. The sociopath wants the United States to win while all other international trade partners lose big. End of story.

Trump = The Ultimate Moron...

Yeah, right. He's going to take a look at deporting Musk, you know, an American citizen. Brain dead oaf with three and a half more years to royally screw everything up.

Carney: What A Fucking Wimp!

This guy is clueless in general and particularly about asshole Trump: they're laughing their asses off in DC, especially at the White House where the blonde dimwit said that Carney had C-A-V-E-D...

Scraping the Digital Services Tax is irresponsible and sets an absolute precedent where the United States will demand that we scrap supply management next, or no trade deal. And what will the prime ministerial dolt do then? This guy is a total joke. 

Meanwhile, Pierre suggests that the Americans drop all softwood duties -- not happening in a million years, that or anything else. So expect to get rolled in those so-called trade talks. That's what's coming, as sure as I'm breathing. What a bunch of clueless fools in Ottawa...

The TrumpTwitTM Sinks Ever Lower.

The Bertrand affair is but the latest in the outrageous and sad manifestations of a man on the point of going mad. Trump has proven himself to be beyond measure in his level of indecency and crass political maneuvering. Trump would have the press come to him on bended knee, never questioning his always self-serving interpretation of the facts. The bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities is a case in point. 

Trump, with his total destruction preoccupation, will give no quarter to any journalistic organization that does not immediately fall into line behind his assessment of the situation. It is good journalism to debate the merits of any story. In the end, the facts will clearly and inevitably lead where they must. In subsequent days, it became evident that Trump's view of the end results was much closer to the truth than earlier speculations that Iran's facilities were only partially damaged and could become operational once again in relatively short order. The IAEA spoke of considerable, even enormous, damage. That would seem to settle the point. However, it does not in any way justify Trump's demented obsession with CNN in general and Bertrand in particular. CNN does well to forcefully advocate in favour of its journalists. Any professional and credible journalistic entity would do no less. Trump or no Trump.

Rodriguez : Ses 52 % valent presque le double.

Pablo est désormais solidement établi à la tête du Parti libéral du Québec, et son élection n'a suscité pratiquement aucune controverse ni désaccord. Cela n'a rien de surprenant, étant donné qu'il s'agit du PLQ, mais Rodriguez dispose également d'un atout majeur : sa personnalité naturellement calme et respectueuse, même envers ses adversaires et ses détracteurs. Pablo normalement ne fait pas de vagues négatives en politique. Au contraire : l'électeur moyen a soit une attitude positive envers Rodriguez, soit, au pire, une impression neutre qui pourrait être influencée lors des prochaines élections. C'est un avantage considérable par rapport à Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, le chef du PQ. Ce dernier, qui semble se prendre pour Jésus, a une personnalité plutôt haute en couleur : il se dispute avec ses alliés à Ottawa et même avec Blanchet, car selon PSPP, il a toujours raison. Vu d'en haut et sur terre, Pablo a une personnalité beaucoup plus flexible et passive. Selon le dicton, Rodriguez n'a apparemment pas de véritables ennemis en politique. Comme le disent les anglophones, Pablo a une vibe cool. À suivre.

Même au sein du parti, les autres candidats à la direction ont tacitement soutenu la candidature de Rodriguez ! Ils auraient pu adopter une stratégie selon laquelle Milliard et Blackburn se seraient choisis mutuellement en deuxième position sur leurs bulletins de vote, mais les stratèges des deux camps n'ont apparemment même pas envisagé cette possibilité. En fait, la résistance à la candidature de Pablo était plutôt tiède. 

La grande force de Rodriguez réside dans son pouvoir de persuasion naturel. Cela pourrait être très profitable pour le parti lors des prochaines élections. Divers sondages vont déjà dans ce sens. Pallas confirme que l'avance du Parti québécois n'est que de cinq points. Si les élections avaient lieu aujourd'hui, le PLQ obtiendrait 26 % des voix et le PQ 31 %. Quant au dernier sondage Léger, l'écart n'est que de deux points, avec 28 % pour le PLQ et 30 % pour le PQ. Il n'est donc pas déraisonnable de conclure que Pablo pourrait continuer à gagner du terrain dans les sondages. De plus, les libéraux auront l'objectif de prendre l'avance dans les sondages. 

D'ici le jour du scrutin, Rodriguez sera un homme de terrain. Ce qui était autrefois impossible ne l'est soudainement plus. Nous verrons le jour d'élections. 

Spark: 38% Of Conservative Voters Now Give Carney High Marks.

No kidding...I wonder who has been saying that since election night. Oh, right.

Pierre might as well save all of us time and wasted effort at the convention. He should resign now, but he won't—not in a million years. So, the CPC will go off the cliff in the next election, with Carney getting a majority. As Warren would say, "You're welcome!"

Iran Has Nothing To Lose Now Thanks To Trump.

The Iranian response against both the United States and Israel won't be pretty. The American attacks on the nuclear uranium enrichment sites were foolish in the extreme. The Iranians have been itching to get back at Trump since Soleimani's assassination. There's no way that this will be One And Done. No chance in hell of that. We all know what's coming next. They better be on their toes.

Iran has the most sophisticated terrorist network across the globe. No one else even comes close. And they will put that to work with relish. As usual, innocent civilians will be the first ones to pay the ultimate price. Ditto for military personnel, especially those based across the Middle East. Unlike the United States, Iran always takes action when a perceived big red line has been crossed. The chances of de-escalation and peace are at zero. Only Trump is stupid and naive enough to believe otherwise.

Trump Invites Terrorism To The Homeland.

And it's coming in spades and soon. 

Natural Resources Progress Report.

Abrasilver: +142%;

Alamos: +41%;

Anfield: +58%;

B2: +21%;

Bannerman: +931%;

BTU: +35%;

Cerro de Pasco: +240%;

Coeur: +20%;

Discovery: +49%;

Empress: +40%;

EMX: +25%;

Forsys: +6%;

Greenheart: +250%;

Hudbay: +93%;

Integra: +85%;

Lavras: +560%;

Lumina: +64%;

Mako: +47%;

Maple: +14%;

Maritime: +123%;

Metalla: +7%;

Nexgen: +40%;

Orezone: +55%;

Osisko Metals: +56%;

Paladin: +54%;

Pan American: +225%;

Plata Latina: +31%;

Radisson: +98%;

Rio2: +41%;

Sandstorm: +56%;

Santacruz: +261%;

Shamaran: +209%;

Silverstorm: +4%;

Source Rock: +18%;

Sprott Physical Uranium: +105%;

Stillwater: +47%;

Stinger: +106%;

Thor: +214%;

Tourmaline: +13%;

Triple Flag: +85%;

Troilus: +35%;

Uranium Energy: +62%;

Vox: +65%.

Xi Jinping: Health Crisis And Planned Retirement?

Is it really coming in September? Was Xi Jinping just a figurehead?

Why The Conservatives Are Damned If They Do And Damned If They Don't.

Let's start with context: Ignatieff supported Harper in 2009 for about a year. The Liberals later withdrew supply and confidence and defeated the government. The end result: Harper's re-election. This is where we are now: the Conservatives backed the Liberals' major projects bill, sending it to the Senate. When Parliament comes back in the fall, what will happen then? Will Poilièvre support government bills on a piecemeal basis or more generally? Either way, the lack of opposition implies consent at least in most voters' minds. Put another way, Conservative acquiescence suggests that the government is doing a good job across the board, whether the party actually believes that or not. It's a little like death by a thousand cuts. 

The alternative is to find a dance partner and defeat the government at the Conservatives' pleasure. This is the ultimate high-risk strategy. It would trigger an election, one that would likely return the Liberals with a majority. Talk about two unpalatable alternatives for a government in waiting. 

In my mind, we've got to get to spring before this thing blows up. At that point, the Conservatives withdraw supply and confidence or wait for better polling numbers in the fall. But either way, an election will come next year. It's like rolling the dice and coming up snake eyes. Picking our poison will be the order of the day. 

Iran: This Is ONLY About Regime Change.

Netanyahu claims this is about preventing Iran from eventually deploying nuclear missiles, when in fact the overall objective is far broader: regime change in Tehran. Trump shares that goal. No one in the West will look at that with disdain; however, the cost of such action could be catastrophic for both countries, not to mention the region. 

It is way beyond folly to suggest that a nuclear-armed Iran would use its weapons against its neighbours. No country has done so since the end of the Second World War. It's my contention that Iran has already had ample time to develop at least primitive but operational warheads. The question becomes what the regime will do once cornered. There can be no doubt that Israel has far greater military capability than Iran, but war is always an imponderable and unpredictable creature. Think Iraq and Afghanistan.

Add to the fact that Trump is intent upon joining the conflict and providing Israel support by deploying MOP-bunker busters against the nuclear uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz. Only the B2 can effectively deploy these munitions. Once the United States takes direct action, Americans at home and abroad will become legitimate soft targets, at least in the eyes of Iran and its proxies. It goes without saying that American military assets around the globe would also come under threat of attack. 

The other aspect worth mentioning is what will happen at The Arab League. Will the organization be able to hold together and take a common position on the Israeli-Iranian war, or will it splinter into factions, and what will be the regional consequences of such action? The organization must do all it can to prevent this war from widening into a regional conflict. At this stage, one wonders if that is even remotely possible. War is a beast that will likely severely bloody both sides before it's over, and it won't end anytime soon. Ukraine is proof enough of that. 

Karen, What A Great Loss.

Carpenters - Hurting Each Other - Restored/Remastered HD HQ Audio Remix

Poilièvre Is A CPC Slow-Motion Train Wreck.

So, the leadership "review" will come at the convention in January, and ninety-five percent of the trained seals will vote to keep this guy as leader. Then, three months later, we will go into a not-so-surprise election and the Liberals will wipe the floor with Pierre and his acolytes. 

The CPC is the only party that lives for and will do absolutely everything possible to lose in every election. This next one will deliver a majority to Carney and his dolts. And the only person who'll be surprised is some guy named Pierre, along with SaintByrneTM, of course.

Pablo l'emporte !

Il faut beaucoup de courage pour assumer ce rôle de chef du Parti Libéral du Québec. Nous devons, à tout le moins, reconnaître le mérite de Pablo à cet égard. Un grand défi l'attend.

What Some People Won't Do To Stay Out Of Jail...

Boom. At the very least, a new Middle East war. 

Glad My Name Isn't Poilièvre!

Steve Boots NAILS IT on YouTube:

The Fall Of Pierre Poilievre

Like I said, Barber's Adagio for Strings. CPC Funeral music for the next election...

Glad My Name Isn't Musk.

Enough said.

Proudly Pro-Gould I Remain.

Carney is such a fucking hypocrite. Gould dared to stand up to him legitimately in the leadership race, and now he holds that against her. He better not try to wave off Karina.

I always go out of my way to tear down female and male politicians that I don't think are worth two-shits. True to myself, I also try to do the same regarding politicians who are clearly stars.

Gould and I aren't in the same party, but Karina is a brilliant star. For Carney to deliberately underutilize her immense talents is way beyond despicable. Maybe Mark needs to have an eye-opening conversation with Diana, among others. Women, take notice.

How To LOSE Elections!

Let's see...Harper didn't listen to me. Scheer didn't, O'Toole and Poilièvre didn't. Neither did Trudeau.

Is it just me, or is there a pattern there? LOL.

La bataille des sondages : Blackburn est satisfait, Rodriguez et Milliard s'y opposent.

Blackburn est un organisateur né, et cela se voit sur le terrain. Lorsque nous voyons les autres candidats en mode protestation, nous savons que l'équipe de Blackburn a réussi un coup de maître. Dès le début, j'ai pensé que Rodriguez ne parviendrait pas à faire de percées significatives dans les régions. Le public avait une opinion positive de Pablo, mais parmi les membres du parti, l'effet persuasif était plutôt mitigé. Rodriguez bénéficie du soutien de la moitié du caucus, mais seulement d'environ un tiers des adhérents du parti.

Un sondage Mainstreet a été commandé par Blackburn, mais sans aucune indication que l'équipe de Blackburn en était à l'origine. Cela semble enfreindre une règle non écrite du parti. Cependant, le parti a officieusement indiqué qu'il ne prendrait aucune mesure ni n'imposerait aucune sanction à l'encontre de Blackburn. Comme le dit le célèbre proverbe anglais : « En amour et à la guerre, tous les coups sont permis ! »

Mais pour commenter de manière crédible et juste, il faut se demander où et quelles sont les données ? Aujourd'hui, Blackburn a non seulement le devoir, mais aussi l'obligation de rendre ces chiffres publics.

La CAQ doit se débarrasser de Legault.

Il est amusant de voir Legault insister sur le fait qu'il ne va nulle part. Mais en réalité, Legault est le prochain Trudeau. La CAQ a deux choix : soit se départir de son chef, soit assister à l'effondrement du parti. C'est aussi simple que cela. Les députés doivent prendre en main l'avenir du parti, sinon ils s'engageront sur la voie de la destruction, où le parti risque de remporter moins de dix sièges lors des prochaines élections.

Pour la CAQ, le pire scénario électoral, sous la direction d'un nouveau chef, serait de voir une course à trois. Ce serait bien mieux que ce qui l'attend aux prochaines élections avec Legault comme chef et premier ministre. 

Il est clair que Legault fait passer ses intérêts personnels avant ceux du parti. Nous verrons si le caucus parlementaire de la CAQ est d'accord lorsque l'Assemblée nationale reprendra sa prochaine session.

Pablo ne se présentera pas dans l'Estrie.

Il est déjà clair que Rodriguez ne se présentera pas dans l'Estrie, malgré ses liens familiaux. Ce n'est pas un homme des régions. Idéalement, Tanguay devrait être persuadé de prendre sa retraite pour le bien du parti afin de permettre à Pablo de se présenter dans LaFontaine. À défaut, son deuxième scénario préféré serait probablement la circonscription d'Anjou-Louis-Riel.

PLQ: Mon bulletin.

Parti Libéral du Québec: Mon bulletin de vote.

1.    Blackburn

2.    Bélanger ?

3.    Milliard ?

4.    Rodriguez ?

5.    Roy

L'heure des grandes décisions.

McParland: Fair And Reasonable But...

I'm largely in agreement with what McParland writes in The National Post. However, I have a question: Do all of you know what it is? Byrne is the litmus test as to whether the leader's mindset is genuinely focused on substantial reform, both in the way caucus does things and how the leader operates in his office. My contention is that the leader is gaslighting us and has absolutely no intention of modifying the status quo in the OLO, or how he approaches retail politics. So, given that assessment, I want the leader out yesterday.

For its part, caucus has clearly telegraphed that they will not lift a finger to turf him, so I say fine. When the snap election comes, far sooner than conventional wisdom expects, the Carney Liberals will finally get a majority, and we will come off as we usually do: a bunch of naive, foolish, compliant losers who couldn't win an election even with God's help.

The best part of McParland's piece is this: As far as Pierre Poilievre is concerned, there’s nothing to decide. “We had the biggest vote count in our party’s history, the biggest increase in our party’s history, the biggest vote share since 1988, and we’re going to continue to work to get over the finish line,” he replied when asked. That same argument is on offer from other Conservatives keen on moving past the vote that left them once again in second place. [emphasis added.]

That argument is bullshit: Mulroney, a Progressive Conservative, was returned to office with a reduced majority. This genius did not win government, much less a minority. A total rank amateur with no retail politics skills did that. Not some delusional, prideful guy called Pierre. In short, when the leadership vote comes, Poilièvre needs to be given his walking papers. However, caucus foolishly agreed to a review vote in the spring. That will allow the Liberals to go to the polls this fall and win a majority. Oh well, Conservatives shooting themselves in the head once again. What else is new? 

Stating The Obvious: One Of Them Is About To Have A Fatal Accident.

Inevitably, this won't end well for one of them. Coming soon.

Marc Garneau, RIP.

I had the immense honour and privilege to meet Marc during my ten years as a Liberal party member. I never met more of a gentleman than Marc. Later, I was fortunate enough to be among those who supported his leadership run.

Marc always gave the best of himself, and his daily goal was to do all he possibly could for his country and its people. What a fine public servant.

To his family and all those who loved him and to his many friends, I extend my deepest sympathy for your enormous loss. What a wonderful, warm human being. He will be greatly missed, and the example he set for his fellow parliamentarians will hopefully help guide future parliamentarians when they're elected to office.

Marc is once again on a rendezvous in the sky. He will do us proud this time, as he always has.

À la prochaine, Marc.

Ford: For Anyone Who Happens To Already Be A Moron.

What a joke, arguing that Ford is like Trump. Ford leads a right-of-center, moderate, middle-of-the-road government called Progressive Conservative. That's why the Liberal boomers have no hesitation in voting PC in Ontario. 

Ford doesn't talk stupidity like Pierre does: Ford doesn't want to eliminate the CBC, or go on an anti-woke crusade, or abolish foreign aid when people are literally starving far more in those countries than in Canada. We have food insecurity in this country, but not starvation or famine. Ford doesn't buy Poilièvre's bullshit -- that's why Ford keeps winning while Pierre keeps losing. Carney thanks God every day for letting Pierre be our leader. God could never be kinder to Liberals than that. Carney wants Pierre in the House as fast as is humanly possible so the CPC can lose again during a snap surprise election. While we get depressed, at least Ford and Kory will get a well-deserved good laugh when we blow it yet again.

6e débat de la course à la chefferie du PLQ.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀

Milliard:😀 😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀

The CPC Revolt Will Fizzle.

It's largely confined to Quebec, so it will take on zero traction. Pierre will stay as leader, and we will lose again.

Remember that God doesn't want this guy as our prime minister. That's more than obvious. You reap what you sowed in politics, and he sowed plenty. We all know how Pierre really comes off. End of story.

Pierre And Taube Are IDIOTS...

Taube writes the following in The National Post:

"That’s why Poilievre’s strategy is crystal clear. Ignore the noise and faux outrage in Conservative circles and elsewhere — and let Byrne run his next national campaign."

Pierre's position became obvious after a month of no signals from the leader that Byrne is out. As a result, I've realized that Pierre will sleepwalk right through the next campaign with SaintByrneTM by his side, and straight off the electoral cliff, they'll go hand in hand. This election was Pierre's high-water mark. He won't do any better next time. In fact, we will lose our gains in Ontario thanks to his lack of leadership. 

The next election, which will come quickly and according to Carney's timetable, will have nothing to do with Trump. Conventional wisdom says we lost because of Trump, but no one talks about the elephant in the room that Poilièvre and Byrne are prideful and committed d****. Every sentient Conservative already knows it and foolishly is prepared to put up with that. So, it's inevitable that we will lose again against Carney and lose big. Einstein's theory of insanity is alive and well in the Conservative Party. The Liberals couldn't be happier. They view us as serial losers, and they're right.

Pierre already knows that he will never, ever, win a seat in Ontario again. That's why the by-election is in Alberta, where thinking people would gladly elect anyone as their MPs. As a result, Pierre wins handily and then down the road to electoral perdition the CPC will go. It's coming for the party, sooner rather than later.

Caucus has decided to be obedient lemmings. I hope they enjoy the second Carney government!

Why Is Trudeau Still An MP?

After these election results, is it unreasonable to conclude that Carney is the next Clark and that you are the next Pierre Elliott Trudeau? Interesting. What do the good voters of Papineau know that I don't?

What A Pathetic Little Dickhead...

Up to four Paramount+ e-mails and counting.

I wonder if the little jackoff reads 'em?

Go fuck yourself.

If Pierre Does Not Replace Byrne Then Caucus Needs To Remove Him.

It's really as simple as that. The clock is ticking.

I'm tired of being perceived as a bunch of losers who can't win an election after having a thirty point lead. Byrne needs to go for that. She either takes responsibility and goes or it gets laid on Pierre's doorstep and he gets to be replaced. It's either or.

Trump's Golden Dome Grifting.

A total joke, just like Carney and his cabinet. Nothing more than a boondoggle for the American defence industry. And like any of their projects, the final cost will be between five and ten times what they quoted. Surprise, surprise.

To be worth the money, it would have to guarantee a one-hundred-percent success rate, and that's impossible. Remember that the only credible threat will come under a WWIII scenario. The Golden Dome would have to be able to intercept all ICBMs and hypersonic missiles, and it will NEVER be able to do so.

It's like their precious carrier fleet: just overwhelm a carrier with a hundred missiles, and then that carrier is gone.

Chefferie 2025 : Débat de la Commission-Jeunesse du PLQ.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

غزة: نتنياهو يخدع نفسه.

يصر نتنياهو على مواصلة الحرب في غزة. إنه ينوي القضاء على حماس، لكن كل عاقل يعلم بالفعل أن هذا لن يحدث أبدًا. يمكن للجيش الإسرائيلي البقاء في غزة لعقد من الزمن، ومع ذلك لن يتم القضاء على حماس. هناك عدة أسباب لذلك: البدء بفكرة أنه لا يمكنك قتل فكرة مهما كانت بغيضة. سوفوكليس.

ثم يأتي بعد ذلك حقيقة أن هناك ما لا يقل عن مليوني شخص يعيشون في غزة، وحماس لا تجد صعوبة في الاندماج مع السكان المدنيين. وأخيرًا، لا توجد قوة داخلية في غزة قادرة على كسر قبضة حماس الخانقة على القطاع.

وعلاوة على ذلك، فإن حكومة نتنياهو تتعامل بشكل أساسي مع الرهائن المتبقين كقطع شطرنج قابلة للاستهلاك. ونحن نعلم جميعًا أن ال 25 الذين ما زالوا على قيد الحياة لن يعودوا طالما أن الجيش الإسرائيلي موجود في غزة. لا بد أن هذا عذاب خالص للعائلات. 

وأخيرًا، يقوم نتنياهو بصياغة سياسة الحكومة في ضوء ما يمكنه الإفلات به في مواجهة الأمريكيين. ولهذا السبب بدأنا أخيرًا نرى أخيرًا بعض ضوء النهار بينه وبين ترامب. المهم أن الرئيس الأمريكي تعمد عدم زيارة إسرائيل خلال جولته في الشرق الأوسط. وقد فهم نتنياهو الرسالة وهو غاضب. 

لذا، في النهاية، على حكومته أن تتعلم الدروس القاسية التي تعلمتها إسرائيل في الماضي. فكر في الضفة الغربية وسوريا وخاصة لبنان. حرب يعقبها جمود وانسحاب في نهاية المطاف. هذه الحقيقة لا تخفى على أحد سوى نتنياهو. إنها لعبة محصلتها صفرية.

لن ينتهي التهديد الإرهابي لحماس إلا عندما تصبح الظروف مواتية لنبذ الإرهاب، وهو ما لن يحدث أبدًا طالما أن نتنياهو وقيادة حماس الحالية في مكانها. فالحرب تولد الحرب وليس السلام. فدورة الحرب مستمرة. لا يمكن تحقيق السلام إلا من خلال تبادل الأراضي والضمانات الأمنية المتبادلة. حتى الأحمق يعرف ذلك.

Gaza: Netanyahu Is Way Beyond Delusional.

Netanyahu insists on continuing the war in Gaza. His intention is to root out Hamas, but every sentient person already knows that will never happen. The IDF could be in Gaza for a decade, and still, Hamas would not be decimated. There are several reasons for that: start with the concept that you can't kill an idea, however loathsome it may be. Sophocles.

Next comes the fact that there are at least two million Gazans on the ground, and Hamas has no difficulty blending in with the civilian population. Finally, no internal force exists in Gaza capable of breaking Hamas' stranglehold on the territory.

Add to that that the Netanyahu government is basically treating the remaining hostages as expendable chess pieces. We all know that the twenty-five who are still alive will not return as long as the IDF is in Gaza. That must be pure agony for the families. 

Finally, Netanyahu shapes government policy in light of what he can get away with vis-à-vis the Americans. That's why we're finally beginning to see some daylight between him and Trump. It was not insignificant that the American president deliberately did not visit Israel during his Middle East trip. Netanyahu got the message and is pissed. 

So, in the end, his government has to learn the hard lessons that Israel did in the past. Think of the West Bank, Syria and especially Lebanon. War, followed by stalemate and ultimately withdrawal. That fact escapes no one other than Netanyahu. It's the ultimate zero-sum game.

The Hamas terrorist threat will only end when conditions are such that they can renounce terrorism, and that will never happen as long as Netanyahu and the current Hamas leadership are in place. War begets war, not peace. The cycle of war continues. Peace can only come with land swaps and mutual security guarantees. Even a fool knows that.

נתניהו הוא מרמה את עצמו. נתניהו

נתניהו מתעקש להמשיך את המלחמה בעזה. הוא מתכוון להשמיד את החמאס, אבל כל אדם בעל תודעה יודע שזה לעולם לא יקרה. הצבא הישראלי יכול להישאר בעזה במשך עשור, אבל החמאס לא יושמד. ישנן מספר סיבות לכך: התחילו עם הרעיון שאתם לא יכולים להרוג רעיון, לא משנה כמה הוא פוגעני. סופוקלס... ויש גם את העובדה שיש בעזה לא פחות משני מיליון אזרחים, ולחמאס אין שום קושי להשתלב באוכלוסייה האזרחית. לבסוף, אין כוח פנימי בעזה המסוגל לשבור את אחיזת החנק של חמאס ברצועת עזה. בנוסף, ממשלת נתניהו רואה בבני הערובה הנותרים כלי שחמט. כולנו יודעים שעשרים וחמישה לא יחזרו כל עוד הצבא הישראלי נמצא בעזה. זה בטח ייסורים טהורים למשפחות. לבסוף, נתניהו מגבש את מדיניות הממשלה לאור החוסן הנתפס שלו נגד האמריקאים. זו הסיבה שסוף סוף התחלנו לראות את אור היום בינו לבין טראמפ. לא היה זה חסר חשיבות שהנשיא האמריקאי לא ביקר בישראל במכוון במהלך ביקורו במזרח התיכון. הוא הבין את המסר והתעצבן. לכן, בסופו של דבר, על ממשלתו ללמוד את הלקחים הקשים שישראל עשתה בעבר. חשבו על הגדה המערבית, סוריה ובעיקר לבנון. מלחמה, שלאחריה קיפאון ובסופו של דבר נסיגה. עובדה זו אינה בורחת מאף אחד מלבד נתניהו. זה משחק סכום האפס האולטימטיבי. איום הטרור של החמאס יסתיים רק כאשר התנאים יאפשרו להם לוותר על הטרור, וזה לא יקרה כל עוד נתניהו והנהגת החמאס הנוכחית יהיו במקומם. מלחמה מולידה מלחמה, לא שלום. מעגל המלחמה נמשך. השלום יכול לבוא רק עם חילופי שטחים וערבויות ביטחון הדדי. אפילו טיפש יודע את זה.

Byrne: Patriquin Hits The Ball Out Of The Park.

Patriquin said on CBC News Network that if Byrne is around, the CPC in general and the leader in particular become less likable and less electable. Bingo!

The sand has already shifted under the leader's feet: he has to realize that the new Pierre must be believed by people in the party and among the public. Pierre must demonstrate that he's evolved since the loss and that his mindset and way of doing things have genuinely changed to deal with the circumstances related to the run-up to the next election. His public and private demonstration of that cannot be credible if he digs in his heels and insists that Byrne remain. For at least a plurality of CPC MPs, Byrne is now THE litmus test going forward. She must go. If Byrne stays, that annoyance and dissatisfaction will inevitably be transferred to the leader. In short, as I put it a while back, it's either Byrne or Pierre who walks. 

Pierre must face a leadership review in the wake of the election loss. That likely will mean serious trouble if Byrne is still around. This decision won't be easy for the leader, given that Byrne was largely the architect of his leadership win, has a longstanding business and personal relationship with Pierre, and years ago, was his lover. But when push comes to shove, you've got to cut people out, and Byrne must be the first to go. If Pierre still doesn't get that, just ask Butts. He can tell you how cutting your losses goes in a PMO or OLO. That deafening sound you hear is the bus approaching.

Pablo enfin sur la défensive.

Cela démontre clairement deux choses : le débat à Québec a clairement confirmé que Rodriguez est en tête et que les autres candidats sont en train de le rattraper. C'est pourquoi les autres candidats ont uni leurs forces pour freiner l'élan de Pablo.

La question qui tue reste la même. Les autres candidats peuvent-ils empêcher Rodriguez d'être choisi comme chef ? L'avenir nous le dira. À défaut de Anyone But Pablo, Rodriguez risque de gagner la course.

4e débat de la course à la chefferie à Québec.

J'ai eu le plaisir d'assister à ce débat.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

CPC MPs: Time To Push Byrne Out.

When a party loses an election it should have won, given a multi-year lead in the polls, there have to be consequences for not winning: in this instance, it's already conventional wisdom that the leader is safe, having increased our seat count and popular vote. But MPs must demand accountability for what went wrong; in this case, the buck must stop with Byrne. The campaign's tone has to be of concern as it likely turned off enough voters to deny us the win. Some of those commercials were appalling and definitely cost us votes. Someone has to pay the consequences for those bad decisions, and obviously, MPs and Senators are not prepared to lay that blame at the leader's feet. 

Any push to remove Byrne will also be a test for the leader: he will get to gauge the mood in the room and can either give way and respect the view of at least a plurality or majority of MPs or hold fast. If he blocks any move to replace Byrne, his position will begin to be undermined in caucus. The leader must remember that our loss is partially due to how he handled himself during the campaign. He lost his own seat, one he held for twenty years, and that should not only be a point of reflection but also a flashing red sign that he must change his ways going forward. As we say in French: faut le faire, losing one's own riding.

Caucus must be all about genuine accountability and internal consequences for losing. Otherwise, we'll just be papering over the cracks and putting the plane on autopilot until we lose again. 

Carney's Angels: Here They Come!

Leah Gazan, Lori Idlout and Jenny Kwan.

That Carney Judgment: Hire Seven And Then Fire Those Same Seven.

Nothing quite like making enemies in your own party. What a slap in the face! I'll bet none of those MPs would have accepted to be elevated to the ministry had they had the slightest inclination that this was coming. This will come back big time to haunt Carney. He will regret this mightily, probably sooner rather than later. Stay tuned for the impending fireworks.

Liberals Win Terrebonne by One Vote!

170. Two seats away for the party that definitely will sell their souls for a majority. So...now you know what that means. The NDP slackers will willingly crossover, but with the ultimate condition: going straight into cabinet, à la Liberal Democrats, in the UK. Three recounts to go, but no guarantee that two of them will go Liberal, so NDPers in cabinet, here they come next Tuesday!

Европейские шаги к миру в Украине.

Я за то, чтобы Стармер, Макрон, Мерц и Туск приехали в Киев, но для прекращения войны в Украине требуется гораздо больше, чем символическое политическое присутствие в столице. На военном фронте Объединенные экспедиционные силы (ОЭФ) десяти стран Северной Европы, включая Великобританию, согласились работать с Украиной для достижения мира. Это небольшое начало. Но реальные военные изменения в Европе могут произойти только тогда, когда Украина получит территориальные обязательства от двух других континентальных военных структур: 5-тысячных сил быстрого развертывания под руководством Великобритании, которые существуют для защиты граждан ЕС, и, конечно, собственных Сил реагирования Альянса (ARF), в задачу которых входит поддержка территориальной целостности стран-членов. Модель сил НАТО (NFM) - это путь вперед для Альянса.

Я давно утверждаю, что политики не видят полной картины и слишком осторожно относятся к гарантиям безопасности, предоставляемым Украине. Совершенно очевидно, что если бы Украина, например, была приглашена в НАТО, война с Россией закончилась бы на следующий день. У Путина не было бы абсолютно никакого аппетита к этой войне. Она принесет быстро уменьшающуюся военную отдачу и будет войной, которую Россия не сможет выиграть. Даже Путин знает, что применение тактического ядерного оружия означает эскалацию, а это не в интересах России. Миллионы россиян и других европейцев погибнут очень быстро.

Союзники Украины настаивают на 30-дневном прекращении огня, которое Кремль, похоже, не хочет принимать, если не будут выполнены условия Москвы по мониторингу и поддержанию режима прекращения огня. Россия неохотно согласилась на прекращение огня теперь, когда Трамп настаивает на нем, несомненно, к удивлению и раздражению Путина.

В конце концов, разве Украина - это регион, представляющий интерес для ЕС, или театр военных действий НАТО, связанный с коллективной обороной Альянса? На самом деле, Украина уже имеет ассоциированное членство в программе Horizon Europe. Это лишь один маленький шаг на пути к полноправному членству в ЕС. Между тем, администрация Трампа решительно выступает против членства Украины в НАТО.

Таким образом, втягивание в иголку и предоставление Украине адекватных гарантий безопасности не будет идти бок о бок с членством в НАТО. Короче говоря, укрепление военных связей с ЕС может оказаться достаточным для того, чтобы обеспечить восстановление территориальной целостности Украины или, по крайней мере, укрепление ее государственной независимости на той территории, которую она сейчас занимает. Без этого патовая ситуация на местах, скорее всего, сохранится в обозримом будущем. И Украине, и России нужен выход. Получат ли они его, покажет время.

Європейські кроки до миру в Україні.

Я за те, щоб Стармер, Макрон, Мерц і Туск приїхали до Києва, але припинення війни в Україні вимагає набагато більшого, ніж символічна політична присутність у столиці. На військовому фронті Об'єднані експедиційні сили (JEF) десяти північноєвропейських країн, включно з Великою Британією, погодилися працювати з Україною для досягнення миру. Це невеликий початок. Але справжні військові зміни в Європі можуть відбутися лише тоді, коли Україна отримає територіальні зобов'язання від двох інших континентальних військових структур: 5-тисячних сил швидкого розгортання під командуванням Великої Британії, які існують для захисту громадян ЄС, і, звичайно, власних Сил реагування Альянсу (ARF), завданням яких є підтримка територіальної цілісності країн-членів. Модель сил НАТО (NFM) - це шлях вперед для Альянсу.

Я вже давно стверджую, що політики не бачать повної картини і занадто обережно ставляться до гарантій безпеки, наданих Україні. Зрозуміло, що якби Україну, наприклад, запросили до НАТО, війна з Росією закінчилася б наступного дня. Путін не мав би абсолютно ніякого апетиту до цієї війни. Вона запропонувала б швидко зменшувану військову віддачу і війну, в якій Росія не змогла б перемогти. Навіть Путін знає, що застосування тактичної ядерної зброї означатиме ескалацію, яка не в найкращих інтересах Росії. Мільйони росіян та інших європейців загинули б дуже швидко.

Союзники України наполягають на 30-денному припиненні вогню, яке Кремль, схоже, не бажає прийняти, якщо не будуть виконані умови Москви щодо моніторингу та підтримання режиму припинення вогню. Росія неохоче погодилася на припинення вогню тепер, коли Трамп наполягає на цьому, без сумніву, на подив і роздратування Путіна.

Зрештою, чи є Україна регіоном інтересів ЄС або театром операцій НАТО, пов'язаних з колективною обороною Альянсу? Насправді, Україна вже має асоційоване членство в програмі «Горизонт Європа». Це лише один маленький крок до повноправного членства в ЄС. Тим часом адміністрація Трампа рішуче виступає проти вступу України до НАТО.

Отже, нанизування на голку і надання Україні адекватних гарантій безпеки не буде йти пліч-о-пліч з членством в НАТО. Коротше кажучи, сильніші військові зв'язки з ЄС можуть бути достатніми для забезпечення відновлення територіальної цілісності України або принаймні зміцнення її державної незалежності на тій території, яку вона зараз утримує. Без цього патова ситуація на місцях, швидше за все, збережеться в осяжному майбутньому. І Україні, і Росії потрібен вихід. Час покаже, чи отримають вони його.

European Baby Steps Towards Peace In Ukraine.

I'm all for Starmer, Macron, Merz and Tusk travelling to Kyiv, but ending the war in Ukraine will take much more than a symbolic political presence in the capital. On the military front, the ten Northern European-nation Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), which includes the UK, has agreed to partner with Ukraine in the cause of peace. It's a small start. But real military change in Europe can only happen if Ukraine receives a territorial commitment from two other continental military structures: the European Union-led Rapid Deployment Capacity, a force of five thousand under British command mandated to protect EU citizens and of course, NATO's own Allied Reaction Force (ARF) which is charged with maintaining the territorial integrity of NATO states. The NATO Force Model (NFM) is the alliance's way to go going forward. 

I've long argued that the politicians couldn't see the big picture and are far too tentative regarding security guarantees provided to Ukraine. It goes without saying that were Ukraine to be invited to join NATO, for example, the war with Russia would end the next day. Putin would have absolutely no appetite to take on NATO proper. That would be a proposition of rapidly diminishing military returns and a war that Russia could not win. Even Putin knows that to resort to tactical nukes would mean escalating to a war posture that would not be in the best interests of Russia. Millions of Russians and other Europeans would die rapidly. 

Ukraine's allies are pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, one that the Kremlin seemingly has no desire for unless Moscow's conditions around monitoring and maintaining such a ceasefire are met. Russia has begrudgingly come around to a ceasefire now that it's also being pushed by Trump, no doubt much to Putin's astonishment and annoyance.

In the final analysis, is Ukraine a region of EU interest or a theatre of NATO operations related to the alliance's collective defence? Now, that's the crunch-time question, isn't it? In fact, Ukraine already enjoys Horizon Europe associated membership. That's one small step away from full EU membership. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration strenuously opposes Ukraine joining NATO. 

So, threading the needle and providing Ukraine with adequate security guarantees will not pass through NATO membership. In short, increasing military links with the EU would perhaps be sufficient to ensure that Ukraine's territorial integrity is either restored or at least solidified on nation-state territory it presently holds. Without that, the stalemate on the ground likely will continue for the foreseeable future. Ukraine and Russia both need an out. Time will tell if they ultimately get one.

 

3e débat de la course à la chefferie à Gatineau.

Bélanger: 😀😀😀😀😀

Blackburn: 😀😀😀😀😀

Milliard: 😀😀😀😀😀

Rodriguez: 😀😀😀😀😀

Roy: 😀😀😀😀😀

Mr. Integrity Is Trying To Poach NDP MPs.

Liberals are great at one thing: political strategy. But they've got zero integrity or political decency. They're only all about power and keeping it. They don't respect how Canadians voted. Nah, they were denied their entitled majority, and so now the Liberal mind concentrates on stealing NDP MPs. In those ridings, voters chose to support the New Democrats, but respect for those results is not on the Liberal agenda.  Not important, ever, for Carney Liberals.

Pierre Has Called To Set Up A Call With Ford.

It's about time. And he should do the exact same thing with Houston. 

Carney Goes To Washington D.C.

In three sentences: a complete waste of time. NO rhetorical concessions from Trump and definitely no substantive ones. Trump continues to blow smoke in our direction. 

Pierre Gets It: It's Either Byrne or Him So It'll Be Byrne.

So long, Jenni.

The Carleton Message: Here's How The CPC Loses Again To Carney And He Gets A Majority.

The Carleton ballot was the longest ever seen in Canadian history. That told you at least two things: to begin, that many, many, many, people simply hated Pierre's guts either due to his personality, leadership style or policy choices. Secondly, that the left was solidly in line and determined to defeat Pierre in a riding that he held for twenty years.

Part of the loss was due to redistricting. That played a not inconsiderable role, but it wasn't by any stretch of the imagination the decisive factor while Pierre blew up in his own riding. 

The leader has indicated he's staying on and will run in an Alberta byelection. Fair enough. But Pierre needs to recognize the obvious: he and his platform weren't centrist and moderate enough to win government in Canada. It's as simple as that. Real hard right parties do not and will never form government in this country going forward. So, Pierre has a choice. He can tact to the center where most of the votes are and move party policy toward the middle, or he can stay the same and run next time with a comparable platform. Make no mistake that the percentage of the vote we won this time was not even close to being the majority of the popular vote, which we won two times before. In short, the next election construct, whenever it comes, will be this: the CPC either adapts and moves in the direction of a moderate view of the world, à la Ford or Houston, or we stay the same and lose again. See how that works?

If we stay the same policy-wise, then all it will do is likely give Carney his majority next time. Remember that Carney will either call an election or create a crisis and use it as a pretext to call an election when the Liberals know they can win big. So, again, Pierre can adapt and reposition the party or almost inevitably prepare to lose during an election at a time of Carney's choosing. 

Carney wants a majority. So expect an election no later than a year from now and probably before. You know, another new and stronger mandate from the voters to deal with Trump sometime within the next twelve months. Forget the bullshit of two years or longer. The election is coming, and a lot faster than most people think. 

Second official debate of the Quebec Liberal Party leadership race (English Debate).

Bélanger: 😃😃😃😃

Blackburn: 😃😃😃😃

Milliard: 😃😃😃😃😃

Rodriguez: 😃😃😃😃😃

Roy: 😃😃😃😃

Pierre Needs To Get The Message.

Posted at WarrenKinsella.com

Warren,

I will be very blunt in my message for Pierre: once you get back in the House, you’d better listen to all the Conservatives on this website, or you can forget about winning the next election. If you stick with your own preconceived biases and ideas that clearly aren’t sufficient to broaden the tent enough to win, then down the CPC will go again in the next election. And next time, thanks to the leader possibly acting foolishly, Carney will get his majority. Know-it-all leaders rarely know it all. So choose now, Pierre and choose wisely. Otherwise, you’re going to be political history soon enough. That’s cold, calm reality talking.

Premier débat de la chefferie : L'économie du Québec.

Bélanger: 😃😃😃😃😃

Blackburn: 😃😃😃😃😃

Milliard: 😃😃😃😃

Rodriguez: 😃😃😃😃

Roy: 😃😃😃😃

PLQ : L'affaire Marie-Claude Nichols.

Vous vous souvenez sans doute de la bataille entre notre ancienne cheffe et la députée : Anglade voulait lui confier certaines responsabilités et Nichols en voulait d'autres. L'impasse a mené à son expulsion du caucus du PLQ.

Pour ma part, j'ai une question : Je vous rappelle que la cheffe a démissionnée en novembre 2022. Malgré ce fait, la députée indépendante n'a pas vu la nécessité ou l'utilité de joindre les rangs du parti libéral jusqu'à hier ?

Cela nous amène à nous interroger sur le niveau de soutien et de solidarité de Nichols envers notre parti. Eh bien, elle est de retour au bercail et elle a un candidat pour la course à la chefferie. Elle est libre de le faire. Pour tous les membres et militants libéraux, nous devons en tenir compte de son passé controversé lors de nos délibérations sur le choix du prochain chef du parti. Elle n'était pas sûre de revenir, mais la voici.

Tanguay est sur la bonne voie : Legault est le prochain Trudeau.

Si Legault est le prochain Trudeau, cela signifie que Paul St-Pierre Plamondon est susceptible de devenir le prochain Poilièvre. Tanguay a des sources fiables. Bref, la CAQ sait très bien que la fatigue de Legault mènera probablement à une troisième place lors de l'élection prévue en octobre 2026. Contrairement aux libéraux fédéraux, le changement de chef risque d'être entièrement volontaire, malgré les commentaires du premier ministre.

Du côté du PQ, les choses ne vont pas bien : il y a la querelle avec le BQ et l'obstination de PSPP à vouloir tenir un référendum si le Parti québécois accède au pouvoir pour la première fois. En fait, cette position représente un mauvais risque en termes d'accession au pouvoir lors des prochaines élections. Je suis de ceux qui sont convaincus qu'un gouvernement péquiste serait capable de gagner un référendum sur la souveraineté, mais certainement pas dès son premier mandat. Le parti doit d'abord mettre en place et laisser en héritage un bon gouvernement qui aura bien géré son premier mandat. Un gouvernement péquiste doit inspirer confiance aux électeurs pour se donner les meilleures chances de gagner un référendum sur la question nationale.

Mais pour en revenir à la CAQ, le parti n'a rien à perdre en s'engageant dans une course à la chefferie. Comme l'ont démontré les libéraux à Ottawa, c'est toujours et seulement le pouvoir qui compte. Legault restera probablement en poste jusqu'à l'automne, et il y aura alors une course à la direction. La CAQ ne doit pas se contenter de sauver les meubles. Sans course, le parti risque de disparaître.

Tout cela pour dire que le petit Jésus de la politique a encore des leçons à recevoir en matière d'entêtement et de flexibilité politique. Blanchet en a été témoin. S'il y avait des élections au Québec aujourd'hui, PSPP serait presque inévitablement le prochain premier ministre. Mais en politique, un jour est une vie. Demandez à Poilièvre.

The Carney Government's Number One Priority is not TRUMP. It's To Poach Three MPs.

They will do anything and I mean anything to convince three MPs to cross the floor. Bet they're already working on Lizzy and others.

In short, it's going to be a very long four years...

Mister Integrity Not Interested In A Pact With The NDP.

So, of course, they aren't going to poach any NDP MPs to get to their precious majority. You read it here first!

An Apology To The PCs.

In short, I've looked into recent news reports with several sources confirming what appeared in the media. Let's just say to suggest that I'm pissed off is the understatement of the year. As a result, I want to apologize to the PCs without reservation for my previous comments. Someone is going to pay politically even more for this. Count on it.

CPC: Pierre Needs To Stay On.

More likely seats than last time and good gains in Ontario. Caucus needs to line up behind the leader.

Yes!

The luckiest people on Earth are those who love Politics. Nothing else even comes close. What a rush, even when we fight and lose.

Election 2025.

Conservatives: 157

Liberals: 150

Bloc: 25

New Democrats: 10

Greens: 1

Calibre Mining Shareholders Should Vote Against The Merger With Equinox Gold.

The revised offer of 0.35 of an Equinox share is only a ten percent premium. I don't know if it's more skimpy or insulting. Glad I sold my Calibre shares a while back. Still hold Equinox.

Élections 2025 : Blanchet se moque des Québécois qui ont voté non.

Le problème avec Blanchet, c'est qu'il est incapable de se regarder dans le miroir pour voir la triste réalité du Bloc. C'est grâce à son leadership que les appuis du BQ sont fragiles et s'évaporent. On peut le voir dans ses conclusions que le Bloc est susceptible de remporter trente-cinq sièges.

Au lieu de reconnaître cette réalité politique, le chef s'en prend au Canada, et au Canada anglais en particulier. Selon lui, en supposant que Carney formera vraisemblablement le prochain gouvernement, il croit que cette réalité créera un vent de changement en faveur du Bloc. Il est optimiste. C'est le moins que l'on puisse dire de ce qu'il dit.

Si le Canada est un pays artificiel, comme il l'a dit, pourquoi de nombreux électeurs québécois préfèrent-ils les libéraux aux bloquistes ? Il semble y avoir un certain attachement à ce pays. C'est pourquoi les souverainistes ont perdu deux référendums. Le Canada est loin d'être parfait, mais il semble convenir à au moins une majorité de Québécois qui se rendent aux urnes. Blanchet pourrait bien en avoir la preuve lundi prochain.

Blanchet Is Panicking.

Not good. The Liberals must be thrilled. Bloc support must not be rebounding as much as Blanchet was counting on. Oh, well.

Election 2025: This Post Is Thanks To Douglas W.

Douglas pointed out that the Liberals have become nasty and surly. Now, that rang one of my bells. Can you say internal Liberal polls?

Just imagine if the Thursday through Friday internal polls, coupled with the weekend ones, are showing either considerable softening in Liberal support or, more likely, the bottom falling out in Liberal support as the Carney train starts to go off the rails. That would be something unexpected as it is. Most pundits and prognosticators are singing from the Liberal majority hymnbook, with a few predicting only a Liberal minority.

Almost no one is expecting a Conservative government of any kind. Imagine if conventional wisdom is wrong. I'm with Douglas, the ground is shifting in the final days. My best guess is an out-of-right-field CPC minority. 

So This Is A CHANGE Election!

They say everyone loves change. But as always, change is in the eye of the beholder. Ask yourself what Canadians want: do they approve of the Trudeau government, now headed by a political rookie, or do they want drastic change- a breath of fresh air?

Let's start with the polls: they're either mostly consistently accurate or totally off the mark. One side will say that they're telegraphing at least a Liberal government, while the other will claim they're a reflection of the Harris polls, almost all wrong. Some argue that long lines during advanced polling favoured the Liberals, while a counter-claim points out that the crowds were really there in droves in search of fundamental change.

What I'm pondering is how the Conservatives apparently lost almost a thirty-point lead. At first, I was inclined to think that tons of Liberals had parked their vote with the CPC while Trudeau remained LPC leader. But we're talking thirty points here. Upon reflection, it seems unlikely that most of those people were Liberals. As a result, that would suggest that Conservative numbers are being underpolled. If I'm right, we could see a result on election night that will be surprising. Could it be a shocker? I hope so.

Advanced Polls: From Ford To A Federal Election.

Advanced polls: I have no idea what is really going on. When Ford got re-elected, only six percent of Ontarians voted before election day, and Ford was returned with one less seat than he had before. Same thing happened in Nova Scotia last year, where advanced poll voting dropped while Houston increased his majority.

So, what's happening now? There's a lot of grey hair, but solid voter turnout among other groups. Is this a vote for incumbency or one for radical change? Your guess is as good as mine.

Le Bloc: Roll Those Carney Liberals!

If the Bloc kicks the Carney Liberals' ass, no one in Quebec will be happier than me. That's exactly what those hypocritical POS deserve. This was the most incompetent and corrupt government in modern Canadian history, with relatives and friends of ministers on the take ad infinitum. So, they deserve to get their butt kicked and royally rolled in the election.

Blanchet is on Tout le monde en parle tonight. He's smart to be following all of the other leaders. In short, he should be able to tie a bow around the Quebec vote tonight. I expect him to perform masterfully. How does that go again? The enemy of my enemy is my friend! Works for me.

Election 2024: Ours Is The Job To Earn The Win And We Will.

It's as simple as that, going into the last week of the campaign. Focus like a laser beam and destroy Carney politically with his words and actions. That's how we'll win.

Elections: It's What You See Not What You Say That Wins Elections.

Visuals win elections. A leader can spout reams of information about an opponent and his party, but nothing rams it home better and concentrates minds more effectively than cutting visuals. You need to catch the other guy in unflattering or arrogant situations, and if it's done right, you'll have plenty of film or tape to back you up. That's how elections are won. 

Liaison, Mainstreet And Nanos.

Two of these polls are dead wrong. Let's get that out there right away. 

Liaison reflects conventional wisdom: Liberals comfortably ahead with New Democrats in single digits. In short, it reflects the majority of other recent polls.

For its part, Mainstreet has two back-to-back polls that show the Conservatives in front. It shows a large Liberal drop but no corresponding New Democrat gain. They remain below ten percent. 

And then there's Nanos, which has the LPC leading but with the NDP in double digits. What?

All I can say is that the coming week's polls should be interesting, or perhaps transformative? Who knows.

Carney Proves He's An Arrogant POS.

Remember, I told you this before.

Ha, ha, ha, plastic straws. Hilarious.

What a disingenuous asshole. Carney is another average Liberal who feels automatically entitled to be in office. He expects Canadians to vote Liberal because it's their due. Voters are supposed to keep these incompetents in power no matter what. The Liberals are owed power.

Carney is playing voters for fools, but hey, that's OK, given that Trudeau did exactly that since 2015. Why ditch a winning formula?

Harper Ad.

Now, that's more like it. Having Harper there, contrasting the abilities of the two men who worked for him. Now that's strategic heft. Hopefully, it will be enough to turn the tide.

Advanced Polls: It's Mostly Wall-To-Wall Geezers And Dames.

We all KNOW what that means...

The Great Economic Magician Has Released His Platform.

In short, more spending and no plan on when to balance the budget. Oh yeah, this guy is really a strong economic manager. Carney is at least as incompetent as Trudeau was. Spend, spend, spend, as if there were no tomorrow. Totally irresponsible. 

Course à la direction du PLQ.

J'ai fait mon choix. Par conséquent, à partir de maintenant, je ne serai plus une source fiable sur cette campagne en ce qui concerne mon niveau d'impartialité. Par conséquent, je ne commenterai plus la course sur ce blog.

The Advanced Polls.

When people truly want a change election, they cause a déluge during the advanced polls. That means that Elections Canada has trouble coping and that starts from the moment the polls open until the last moment when they close on each voting day.

What we're seeing so far are lineups that are large but come in spurts. That vote is almost all people who have a vested interest in an incumbent outcome. Translation: the Liberals gave them something, and Carney is their vote, so they can keep it. It's not complicated: if the latter pattern holds, the Liberals will be in like Flynn...

I'm Washing My Hands Of This Campaign.

It was bad enough watching the Ontario PCs undermining our campaign, but to see the leader at this late stage of the campaign still doing things to sink us further... no, thank you. I'm out.

Why The CPC Is Now Guaranteed To Lose.

FORD.

Poilièvre.

April 28, 2025: When A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words.

From: BlogTO

As Expected: NDP And Bloc Support Firming Up. Ten Days To Go.

It's not a given that Carney can win a majority. Heading in the direction of a horse race. Maybe just maybe, Pierre can eke out a minority with Bloc support. Wouldn't that be ironic?

French Debate: A Draw.

Silver lining for Carney: he didn't blow himself out of the water in his second language.

I'm Consistent: Against The Emergencies Act And Using The NC In Criminal Law.

This is a matter for judges and lawyers, not politicians.

Why Don't You Ask Carney When Gould Will Be Joining Cabinet?

In short, not in this lifetime. Gould committed the cardinal sin of wiping the debates' floor with Carney and showed him up to be for all to see exactly who he is: in way over his head and clueless when it comes to retail politics and relations with the press. This guy is lazy as hell and it shows in spades. Watch this bozo take election day off.

I guess strong and competent team rivals just isn't his thing.

Buttongate: Now You Know How Low The Carney Liberals Will Go To Win.

Typical fucking scumbags whose tactics are as always: whatever it takes to win...

Carney Takes A Third Day Off During An Election Campaign.

This guy is playing Canadians and especially voters for S-U-C-K-E-R-S...

The other leaders are out daily trying to earn your vote, but not MisterEstablishmentTM.

Do you really want this guy spending your tax dollars but doing as little as possible to earn his keep? What would happen to you in your job if you took it as unseriously as Carney does? Exactly.

What a disgrace.

Carney Goofs Off And Takes It For Granted That The Liberals Will Win.

That's why Carney is making minimal campaign efforts in this campaign. Name me one more politician who leads a party that takes two days off in a row right smack in the middle of an election. Like Carney said, his main priority is to spend most of his time in service to his family, not Canadians...so why exactly is this guy our prime minister?

MAID: Advanced Directives Are Crucial. The CPC Is Wrong.

My late mother suffered from both Alzheimer's and Vascular Dementia. Despite constant visits from family and friends, her last two years were a miserable existence: her life consisted of a bed and a chair. When COVID hit, we could no longer visit her. The Senior's Residence only relented days before her death. And by then, thanks to the loss of mental stimulation by family, caregivers and friends, the two dementias had shut down her brain, and she could no longer speak. 

Wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. Poilièvre needs to understand that. His position is wrong.

Carney: An Arrogant Bastard. Nail Him To The Wall In CPC Commercials.

Why does this have to come from me? In short, clueless Byrne couldn't come up with this in a month of Sundays.

Carney's Kryptonite: His Net Worth And How He Made His Money.

It doesn't take a genius, or even a mediocre political strategist, to know the obvious: Carney's Achilles' Heel is his carefully concealed net worth and how that wealth was generated. Carney has gone out of his way to keep that private until he has to. If or when he becomes an elected MP. That speaks volumes: it tells you that he intends to divulge only what is legally strictly necessary.

My hunch is that there's gold in them dar hills: the CPC needs to get the Forbes report on Carney's net worth and how he made his money. And then Pierre has to hammer the results home until election night. It also goes without saying that for this strategy to have its maximum effect, Pierre has to be as financially transparent as one would expect Carney to be once his hand is forced in that direction.

This is about the biggest no-brainer in politics. But so far, the CPC has done nothing material to shed light on Carney's finances and why evasion is his preferred modus operandi. As previously stated, it confirms that CPC political strategists are not worth two-shits. And sigh, Byrne is still there. No wonder, so far we've mastered the art of losing.  

Blackburn voit un vide et se lance dans la course à la direction du PLQ.

On vous rappellera que la quasi-totalité des députés du PLQ avaient déjà choisi d'autres candidats, mais en réalité leur soutien pourrait être fongible. On l'a déjà vu une fois dans cette course. Cependant, les anciens ministres, députés et organisateurs, ceux qui étaient présents lorsque le Parti libéral du Québec était au pouvoir, ont encore quelque chose à dire. Beaucoup d'entre eux ont estimé que les autres candidats manquaient d'expérience ou de qualité. C'est sans doute cette réalité qui se cache derrière la récente réflexion de Blackburn. C'est tard dans la course, mais il est enfin dans le coup. 

Auparavant, on avait parlé d'un effet Rodriguez. Reste à savoir si Blackburn a encore le sens politique pour faire des vagues transformatrices en si peu de temps. À suivre.

CUSMA: Pierre Needs To Find Several International Trade Specialists Fast.

It's all about the art of the deal. A CPC government would have to draft proposals that Trump is unlikely to refuse. I don't see international trade or trade law experts on the Conservative benches. 

Pierre wants to save CUSMA (USMCA) and renegotiate it early. Trump wants to kill it by taking unrealistic and unacceptable positions that no self-respecting sovereign country can possibly agree to. As a result, the CPC should already be preparing position papers on all aspects of the trade agreement with specific proposals on possible modifications. We must get ahead of the curve and make Trump an offer that the United States Chamber of Commerce can't and won't refuse. Get the business lobby on board preemptively, and that should box Trump in. Otherwise, it's only a matter of time before CUSMA expires.

Mulroney Endorses Pierre.

Let's call it strategic pre-positioning. How ironic it will be when Mulroney gets to run against her boss. Eventually. Most of the party won't support either one of them, but at least she has the guts to try. The day the leadership becomes vacant, I'll be supporting MacKay. No surprise there. Eventually. 

As Trump Fades As The Number One Issue, The Real Deal Comes To The Fore: Leader Likability.

Here it is in a nutshell: CPC support is huge and growing. That's why the crowds are mostly record crowds in English Canada. LPC support has increased among Liberals, but their crowds vary in size. The NDP is almost on its deathbed with support rapidly dropping. My bet is that they will lose party status and Jagmeet will suddenly find himself unemployed.

But here's the get real moment: Progressive women are abandoning the New Democrats in droves and moving to the Liberals to block the Conservatives, and if that trend holds, which I expect it will, the CPC will not be able to form government. Much of the Canadian left wants nothing to do with us, and that's why we're still losing in this campaign. 

If Canada Has To Die So Be It.

Look, let's cut through all the bullshit. Western Canada is pissed off and unhappy in this federation and they largely want things their way. They want to choose the next government but likely won't get their wish because Canada exists to serve the interests of Ontario. People think that Quebec is happy and well served by federalism but we ain't. Canada is a status quo vehicle and that's the Ontario vision and dream for Canada -- no reform or rocking the boat. In short, perpetuating a situation where Ontario remains the dominant player in this country.

So...if the Carney Liberals win, which they will, then The West needs to go, period. What's the point of them staying? It would be best under such a scenario if they formed their own country because being the 51st state would amount to being a nothing-burger under Trump. Just another number like say Rhode Island. 

Democracy reigns in this country and for at least a decade or more Ontario will continue to call the national tune. As a result, if Western alienation is now at its peak, then shut the fuck up and stop whining about it à la Trump. Put your money where your clout is and finally do something about it. Just go and be done with it.

The CPC Fifth Column.

I'm up at 5:00 A.M. and not because I want to be. I woke from a semi-sound sleep with treachery on the brain. I simply can't believe that any purported supporter of the CPC could quite deliberately do an end run around our leader for the express purpose of guaranteeing that he loses the election. These wolves in sheep's clothing pretend that their mostly anonymous comments in the press are nothing more than constructive criticism aimed at shoring up the CPC campaign before it's too late. My ass. 

We all know what this is about and it's too cute by half -- it's a deliberately orchestrated campaign to sink the party and its leader. 

These people want us to lose and no doubt hoped we would lose from the get-go. They have a party takeover in mind right after the election with an ultimate aim of positioning and installing their guy as the overall favourite for CPC leader.

The leader's political corpse isn't even cold yet but that's of no importance to them. They prefer to strike while the going is good and strike they have.

And to my astonishment, the leader is refusing to do the one thing which ironically could save his political hide in this election. It's time for us to recognize that by his deliberate conduct, the leader has consigned the party to an almost inevitable defeat. In short, he's played right into their hands!

For Conservatives that means forgetting about winning and concentrate the mind going forward on blocking the cabal's future leadership candidate. Every party member must say No to this duplicitous conduct and deliberate undermining of our campaign and leader. Truly constructive criticism in an election is one thing, aimed at improving the party's chances in a campaign. But gas lighting party members and the public solely for the purpose of advancing the objectives of a future leadership candidate is something else altogether. Most people would call it political treason and abject betrayal.

Pierre Won't Pivot...

Nothing quite like playing right into the hands of the Ontario PCs. They've got to be happier than a pig in shit. Once we lose, they will move heaven and earth to replace Pierre as leader with...wait for it, you know who!

Why Are Ford And The Ontario PCs Not Helping Pierre In This Campaign?

Apparently, to ask the question is to answer it. People need to sear that into their memory. And why it's happening now.

For Antonio: In Percentage.

Abrasilver: 73

BTW: 11

Bannerman: 593

Cerro: 158

Empress: 7

EMX: 10

Equinox: 18

Erdene: 52

Forsys: 12

G Mining: 518

Greenheart: 560

Hecla: 48

Integra: 56

Lavras: 74

Mako: 14

Maritime: 41

Metals Energy: 19

Orezone: 25

Osisko Metals: 51

Paladin: 15

Plata Latina: 31

Radisson: 59

Santacruz: 98

Stinger: 125

Thor: 91

Uranium Energy: 30

Vox: 38

West African: 837

...and plenty of losers too!

Here's How The CPC Wins.

As posted on WarrenKinsella.com:

All of the above are legitimate concerns and insightful points, but they’re inside baseball and can’t get serious traction. None of them are what we need to win. In short, Pierre has to attack Trump DIRECTLY far more forcefully and frequently when the next round of American tariffs comes on April 2nd. And far more importantly, to change the leadership dynamic in this race and remove it from Carney, Pierre has to pledge that an incoming CPC government will not only match Trump tariff for tarrif but will do what the Liberals refuse to do: make sure that all our reciprocal tariffs across the board are for double the percentage the American tariffs are. If Trump goes from 25 to 50, then a Conservative government goes from 50 to 100. That’s the only kind of strength that Trump understands and RESPECTS, and it’s the only way to get him to back down and prematurely abandon his tariffs.

I Told Pierre To Pledge To Double The Anti-Trump Tariffs.

So far, he's not listening. He's not much of a political strategist.

Is Abacus On To Something?

They have the Conservatives and Liberals tied at thirty-nine percent. If Abacus is correct, it means support for both parties is soft and fungible. The Liberals have to consolidate their support as the leading party. The Conservatives have more of a challenge: they must prove that they are the only change agent and that we can do a better job of getting Trump to eliminate tariffs against Canada as quickly as possible. Carney's approach is to play nice and achieve nothing of substance in tariff relief. This is where Pierre has an opportunity. He needs to talk tough but also come up with tradeoffs that Canada could agree to that would prompt Trump to remove the current tariffs or forego future ones on automobiles and other goods. Put another way, Pierre has an incredible challenge: to win in this fight, he has to be prepared to make substantive concessions to the Americans without going too far. What price will Canadians pay to get to a world without tariffs? If the CPC can figure that out, we could still win this election. However, making trade concessions will always be a double-edged sword for any party that agrees to Trump's demands. There's a thin line between making some concessions or going too far and coming off as a sell-out.

CPC: How Long Will It Take To Ditch Byrne? The Clock Is Ticking.

CPC support has been dropping ever since the Liberal leadership race got underway. Some will say it's because of Conservative policies, but that's incorrect. Pierre had the same policies when the CPC was twenty to twenty-five points ahead in the polls for almost two years. The same thing can be said about the leader: no one loves Pierre, but he is not despised either. People were willing to live with him as an indirectly elected prime minister. So, what changed?

The Liberals got a new leader who is a political neophyte who comes off as a privileged person who thinks that he and his background should not be accountable to the press or Canadians. Carney doesn't want us to know how rich he is or what all his elite connections did to benefit him personally over the years.

Canadians know nothing about this. They see a shiny new penny in the window and like it. However, Carney's repeated gaffes are starting to show that the Emperor has no retail politics skills or mastery of sound government practices. 

Again, why did the wheels come off the Conservative campaign? Simply put, the strategic depth in the CPC war room isn't up to the job. Byrne never should have headed the war room. Byrne is there by default because no one else wanted the job or to work with her in a campaign. Her war room is responsible for those disastrous red ads that deliberately distorted Carney's features to make him look devil-like. Byrne did nothing to pull those ads. Did she even have a role in conceiving them? And even worse, the leader let them air. Those ads are responsible more than anything else for tanking CPC numbers, and the continued decline in support flowed from there.

As for the campaign, Byrne must be replaced ASAP by a seasoned operative. Can they convince Teneycke to come over to stabilize a rapidly sinking ship? And will Ford give his blessing? But Teneycke can't do it alone. He will need to bring in an infusion of people.  Without restaffing, this election is already lost. Pierre's strategic abilities aren't up to retooling and rethinking this campaign. He's far too wedded to longstanding party policy and shows no natural inclination towards thinking out of the box. 

In short, drop Byrne now before it's too late. We have one last chance to turn things around. Better make the most of it.

ClunkyTM Leads In Most Polls Since March 15th.

The Liberals keep going up, while ClunkyTM's performance keeps going down. Pierre is doing better and better but we're hardly moving in the polls. Not good.

Angus Reid Is A Disaster For The CPC.

Liberals lead by eight points. Eight points!

So, the Conservative war room is clearly inadequate for the task at hand—winning a majority government. Now, they have two choices: listen to all of us at WarrenKinsella.com or ignore our advice as they've been doing until now. If they keep this up, the LyingAssCarneyLiberalsTM will get a comfortable majority on April 28th, plain and simple.

CR: I'm 1000% With Schumer.

Much of the Democratic Party, especially in the House, are clueless. Pelosi said when she made deals, she always got something in return. Maybe so. She poopooed Schumer and a dozen Democrats and Independents who voted to advance and adopt a CR that had passed the Republican House. Schumer says the Republicans had already signaled that they would not cut a deal while some Democrats claim that's bullshit. Either way, what type of concession could Schumer have got to serve as a fig leaf for voting for the CR? You tell me.

The point being, that a) as Carville put it so well, Democrats have to pick their battles -- and this one ain't it. Why? First off, as in almost all cases, the party that votes against a CR in the Senate gets to wear a government shutdown, no ifs, and's or buts. Schumer knew this only too well going in. 

Remember what happened to Gingrich in the bad old days? And then, b) there's the last Trump shutdown in 2018...well, it's no surprise to anyone. Guess who took the House after that shutdown? In short, the party that didn't cause it, namely, the Democrats.

So, Pelosi and the rest of them are wrong. Dead wrong. If you want to fight a battle in the Senate you do it on a winning issue for Democrats like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, pensions, etc. You don't give Republicans a fucking lifeline by shutting down the government. Schumer got it. A lot of his fellow Democrats, not so much... 

This Prime Minister Is In Over His Head.

By his actions as demonstrated during this past week, our Prime Minister has amply demonstrated that he does not have the royal jelly required to adequately do the job. He is singularly unfit in a way that even Trudeau was incapable of. The man is totally out of his depth and uniquely unqualified for the office he holds. In the fullness of time, that will become apparent to every Canadian. To allow Carney to continue as PM is to put the fate of our country at great risk. The man has no inherent ability to successfully do the job. An election will soon be upon us and it will be imperative that Carney not be returned to office. Way in over his head and simply incapable of navigating that job successfully.

Anand: We're Building A Domestic Resilient Economy.

We're building a domestic resilient economy. Yeah right. They were supposed to start in 2015 but only got around to it ten years later...typical Liberal crap.

Rosie Gets It Wrong Again: On The Carbon Tax.

Poor Rosie, she keeps getting it wrong: Carney did not abolish the carbon tax. He cancelled part of the carbon tax, the one that affects consumers directly on gasoline. The other component, on industrial carbon emissions, remains in place and affects so-called big emitters. I guess nuance and context are not Rosie's strong suit. 

Hillman Is Living In An Alternative Universe.

It's time for Hillman to get candid and realistic: there is NO trust relationship between Canada and the United States. All of that phoney baloney about keeping the same players in place is bullshit. Let me enlighten Carney, his ministers and Hillman - to have a trust relationship, it has to be based on respect and mutual benefit. Trump practices none of that. He has no respect for Canada, our leaders or Canadians. It's about time that Hillman admitted that. Without saying that, she loses all credibility in Canada.

I'm Not A Big Poilièvre Fan But I Want The Liberals Out, So Here I Am.

That's it, in a nutshell.

Polls Still All Over The Place: It's What Kinsella Said That Matters.

Warren distinguishes between traditional land-line polls and internet polls. The latter are far more representative but can be massively distorted in one direction. So, IVR tracking has its advantages and disadvantages. Meanwhile, traditional polling tends to be largely unrepresentative of the masses.

Who knows what's really going on? Innovative Research has the CPC up six, Mainstreet Research has the Liberals ahead by two, and Liaison Strategies has them in the lead by four. 

But once more, Warrren nailed it: none of these polls matter anymore. Only the ones post-Carney as PM will tell the tale all the way to voting day.

CANADA: It Will Be A Coconut Cream Pie Election!

Right now, Carney is the filling and Poilièvre the meringue. Pierre has to turn that around so he can once again be the filling while Carney gets to be the meringue.

A tall order for any politician. Glad my name isn't Pierre.

Who's For Voting For The 15 Million Dollar Man?

Not me!

Will Carney Pull The Plug Tomorrow: Sunday, March 16th?

Nope. He leaves for Europe on Sunday and comes back on Tuesday so my bet is next weekend, not to look too deliberately opportunistic.  

The Next Election: In One Sentence.

If you're Laurier, Pearson, Chrétien and even Mulroney, you win. If you're anyone else, you lose.

Carney Renounces His UK and Irish Passports While Poilièvre Goes With The Harris Strategy.

Carney is in the process of renouncing his British and Irish citizenships. He is doing so now that he serves as prime minister. This is a tricky one: perception seemingly requires that Carney stick only with his Canadian citizenship, but perception isn't everything. After all, Carney's wife is British. So, Carney is playing it safe and removing a possible attack strategy against him. For my part, the loyalty test isn't based on what colour your passport is. It should be based solely on what actions an individual takes. A case in point: look at that traitor south of the border. That guy has been in Putin's pocket since Day One.

Moving on to Poilièvre: he's sticking with the Harris attack strategy - which didn't work. I favoured this strategy and was wrong, so now I know better. Harris called Trump everything but the Antichrist, and she still lost. It's rarely a good idea to be your own attack dog. Potential PMs are supposed to rise above the fray most of the time. Pierre's problem is that he loves being the attack dog and sometimes blows it. He said that Carney thinks Canadians are stupid. You never, EVER, say something like that. Why? If you say that, you're indirectly suggesting that voters who want to re-elect the Liberals for a fourth term are stupid. And that's a top NO-NO when it comes to smart politics. But Pierre just can't clue in. It goes directly from his brain to his mouth without qualification or a political filter. And that's why the CPC will likely lose the next election.