KinsellaCast 329.

Warren,

-I will keep saying it until I die: fire all of the CBC television news directors across the country and replace them with real impartial journalists, not ones who'll become our CPC suck-offs. And fire Tait's sorry ass. She really comes off as being in the bag for them.

-Like was reported elsewhere, Trudeau will likely lose his seat in the next election. So deserving of that he is. We will win a huge majority as long as Pierre doesn't screw it up in the campaign. 

-Brian...they're not dancing in the streets in Iran. Netanyahu wasn't satisfied with a one-front war. Now he's got a three-front war but he won't be happy until he has a four-front war, which will finally be his political undoing. Netanyahu has called up reservists so he can go into Lebanon. Yes, no one in the West misses Nasrallah. But that's beside the point if you're really concerned about Israel's national security. Lebanon will be Bibi's Vietnam. It didn't go very well for Begin and Sharon last time, or the time before.

-Nasrallah was somewhat of a political pragmatist. But he wasn't conducive to a possible peace process. But as John says, who will replace him? Probably by someone much worse. If Israel goes for the nukes, it's WWWIII. Netanyahu will fall short of that if he's smart. Mossad most likely has already informed him that Iran already has crude nuclear devices, dirty bombs. You don't fuck with that if you have any sense. But then this IS Bibi we're talking about. Anything is on the table to possibly stay out of jail. Netanyahu is a mini-Trump who only cares about himself. End of story.

-The NDP and BQ are naive suckers. Trudeau will play both of them and prorogue. And since Harper did it twice, Conservative protests and outrage will ring hollow, hypocritical and self-serving. 

-Even if Trudeau leaves, the CPC still wins the election. Liberals, under a new leader, will only be more competitive but still lose unless Pierre makes a major mistake.

-This is the prime minister who supposedly isn't stupid.

-Warren, also technically born a Quebecois, has more French than the Governor General. I guess she's on an extended "break" from her French lessons...disgraceful. 

-Abortion sank Scheer who is pro-life. A two-faced O'Toole sunk O'Toole. Pierre is pro-choice.

   

Trump Finally Wins An Award: Absolutely The Greatest Political Loser in American History.

Just watch this asshole at his rallies. With each passing day, this POS revels in the dirt and constantly tries to find a way to go even lower. For Trump, that's humanly possible. And then this fucker wonders why people leave his rallies before the end -- some finally realize that he's created in someone's image and here's a hint, it's not God's image. In short, Vance got it right before he turned suckup and political suck off. He had Trump pegged but good but then he sold out for power, or at least the possibility for power.

Today, this poor excuse for a human being said that Harris is "mentally disabled."  This coming from him, a totally deranged psychotic sociopath narcissist nutcase whose mental equilibrium tanks more and more each day. This guy is nothing more than a TrumpWreckingBallTM and with each passing day, he digs his own campaign further into the ground. Talk about a clueless moron. 

I can't wait for November 4th when Trump will finally get his political comeuppance. The silent majority is already so revolted and disgusted by this imbecile's behaviour so kaboom, here comes the Harris landslide. Screw the polls, they're garbage. Harris will win and win BIG. I'm telling you now. Carville will likely tell you the same later. A fitting political end for this unprecedented asshole.

האם נתניהו הרג את נסראללה?

זו ללא ספק הטעות האסטרטגית הגרועה ביותר שעשה נתניהו. שימוש בפצצות בונקר-באסטר כדי להשמיד את רוב ההנהגה הבכירה של חיזבאללה, אולי כולל נסראללה עצמו. אם נסראללה ימות, כפי שדיווחו כמה מקורות ישראליים, זה יהיה מבשר נורא למלחמה כוללת בחזית שנייה. חיזבאללה יראה כעת בישראל אויב דם ויעשה כל מאמץ להטיל מחיר נורא על ישראל ואנשיה. אנחנו מדברים כאן על בליץ, שילוב של רקטות, טילים ואולי טילים היפרסוניים באדיבות איראן. התגובה שמגיעה יכולה להיות חסרת רחמים ולא סלחנית. למרות כיפת ברזל, קלע דוד והגנות אחרות נגד טילים, סביר להניח שישראל תצטער על יום המבצע. זה יהיה ממש קרב עד מוות עם אינספור אזרחים וחפים מפשע שעלולים למות משני הצדדים. תגובת חיזבאללה תגרום למה שחמאס עשה כפעולות טרור להיראות כמו כלום לעומת מה שמגיע. בסופו של דבר, אם אתם מחפשים שלום בר קיימא וחיים טובים יותר לישראלים ולכל האחרים באזור, אתם עושים שלום עם אויבי הדם והטרוריסטים שלכם. הפשיטות הללו הרסו את התקווה הקטנה שעדיין הייתה קיימת לשלום כולל במזרח התיכון. מאמצים אלה נידונים כעת. מה שיבוא אחר כך יזעזע ויגעיל אזרחים משני הצדדים. סביר להניח שישראל תשלם מחיר נורא על ביצוע הפעולות הללו. מעשי נקמה מדהימים הם כנראה בדרך. נתניהו בגד בעמו. ישראל מעולם לא הייתה פגיעה יותר בהיסטוריה שלה מאשר היום. הביטחון הלאומי נמצא בשפל של כל הזמנים. הישראלים יכולים רק להאשים את נתניהו בכך.

Has Netanyahu Killed Nasrallah?

This is by far the worst strategic blunder committed by Netanyahu. Using bunker-busters to annihilate most of Hezbollah's top leadership, perhaps including Nasrallah himself. If Nasrallah is dead as some Israeli sources are reporting, this is the horrible precursor for an all-out war on a second front. Hezbollah will now consider Israel as a blood enemy and they will go to whatever lengths that are required to inflict a terrible toll on Israel and her people. 

We're talking a blitz here, a combination of rockets, missiles and perhaps hypersonic missiles courtesy of Iran. La riposte that is coming is likely to be merciless and unforgiving. Despite Iron Dome, David's Sling and other anti-missile defenses, Israel will likely rue the day that this operation was carried out. 

This quite literally will be a fight to the death with countless civilians and other innocents likely dying on both sides. Hezbollah's response will make what Hamas has done in the way of terrorist operations look like nothing compared to what's coming. 

In the end, if you're searching for a durable peace and a better life for Israelis and all those others in the region, you make peace with your blood enemies and terrorists. These raids have destroyed the little hope that still existed for a comprehensive peace in the Middle East. Those efforts are now doomed as doomed can be. What's coming next will shock and disgust civilians on both sides. Israel likely will pay a terrible price for conducting these operations. Acts of incredible vengeance are probably on the way.

Netanyahu has betrayed his own people. Israel has never been more vulnerable in its history than it is now. National security is at an all-time low. Israelis can only blame Netanyahu for that. 

هل قتل نتنياهو نصر الله؟

هذا هو أسوأ خطأ استراتيجي لنتنياهو إلى حد بعيد. استخدام قنابل خارقة للدروع للقضاء على معظم القيادات العليا لحزب الله، بما في ذلك ربما نصر الله نفسه. وإذا كان نصر الله قد قُتل كما ذكرت بعض المصادر الإسرائيلية، فإن هذا مقدمة رهيبة لحرب شاملة على جبهة ثانية. وسينظر حزب الله الآن إلى إسرائيل كعدو دموي وسيذهب إلى أبعد مدى لتكبيد إسرائيل وشعبها خسائر فادحة. 

نحن نتحدث هنا عن هجوم خاطف، مزيج من الصواريخ والقذائف وربما صواريخ تفوق سرعة الصوت مجاملة لإيران. ومن المرجح أن يكون الرد التالي قاسيًا وعديم الرحمة. وعلى الرغم من القبة الحديدية ومقلاع داود وغيرها من الدفاعات الأخرى المضادة للصواريخ، من المرجح أن تندم إسرائيل على اليوم الذي نفذت فيه هذه العملية. 

ستكون هذه معركة حتى الموت بكل ما تحمله الكلمة من معنى، مع احتمال مقتل عدد لا يحصى من المدنيين والأبرياء الآخرين من كلا الجانبين. إن رد حزب الله سيجعل عمليات حماس الإرهابية تبدو وكأنها لا شيء مقارنة بما سيأتي. 

في النهاية، إذا كنتم تبحثون عن سلام دائم وحياة أفضل للإسرائيليين وكل من في المنطقة فاصنعوا السلام مع ألدّ أعدائكم الإرهابيين. لقد دمرت هذه الغارات ما كان هناك من أمل ضئيل في تحقيق سلام شامل في الشرق الأوسط. إن هذه الجهود الآن محكوم عليها بالفشل، محكوم عليها بالفشل كما يمكن أن يكون الفشل. ما سيأتي بعد ذلك سيصيب المدنيين في كلا الجانبين بالصدمة والاشمئزاز. ومن المرجح أن تدفع إسرائيل ثمناً باهظاً لتنفيذ هذه العمليات. ومن المرجح أن تكون هناك أعمال انتقامية لا تصدق في الطريق.

لقد خان نتنياهو شعبه. لم تكن إسرائيل في تاريخها أكثر عرضة للخطر مما هي عليه الآن. الأمن القومي في أدنى مستوياته على الإطلاق. ولا يمكن للإسرائيليين إلا أن يلوموا نتنياهو على ذلك. 

Pablo: Face aux défis multiples.

 Pablo Rodriguez | Le grand écart Québec-Canada | La Presse

CPC: Well, Here We Go Again Looking STUPID.

Oh, great. Just what we need, another meaningless non-confidence motion. All the other parties get to laugh at us again. That should greatly help us coming across as the serious alternative to this government. Simply incredible, not to mention truly pathetic.

By all means, present another one after this one also goes down in flames. Fools.

Gee-Whiz, Pierre! The NDP and BQ Voted With The Other Guy...

Well, I never...I mean, surely there was one Conservative strategist who had this already figured out? Oh right, that was moi. The vote was 211 AGAINST, 120 FOR. More of those great CPC tactics.

So, once again we come off as clueless amateurs. A total waste of House time. Please get it into your head Pierre: the minute the NDP or the Bloc decides to vote with us, which is highly unlikely, Trudeau will prorogue à la Stephen Harper.

You're welcome, à la Kinsella.

Carville Says One Side Will Take Off Before Election Day.

Carville is far more careful than me. I still say it will be a Harris landslide.

Pablo: Don't sell the bear's skin before you've killed it!

Ne pas vendre la peau de l'ours avant de l'avoir tué ! - CHRONIQUEURS - EstriePlus.com | Journal d'actualité Web | Sherbrooke | Estrie.

Here are a few excerpts from that column:

[TRANSLATION] "All this to say that the arrival of Pablo Rodriguez on the provincial scene as candidate for leader of the Quebec Liberal Party will mark a new political dynamic in Quebec."

What is this new political dynamic? Ask the candidate and chances are he won't have an answer. Rodriguez is a perfect example of status quo federalism. There is no plan for the renewal of the federation nor for Quebec's place in it.

[TRANSLATION] "Pablo Rodriguez, former Minister of Canadian Relations and La Francophonie, Minister of Transport and Justin Trudeau's political lieutenant in the federal government, embodies renewal and brings with him a wealth of political experience, valuable skills and an in-depth knowledge of the issues affecting Quebecers. His decision to return to Quebec is part of a broader movement to unify Francophone voices and strengthen the essential link between the QLP and this community."

To bring Francophones together, you need a vision of society that Quebecers see as attractive. This project must be based on the needs and aspirations of a changing society. Francophones cannot be content with a situation where there is increasing interference by the federal government in provincial government jurisdictions. The leader of the Liberal Party must, at the very least, curb these impulses from big brother in Ottawa. Ideally, the leader will have to fight to reverse these decisions by the Trudeau government, and Rodriguez is not the person to lead that battle against Trudeau.

[TRANSLATION] "The rebirth of the QLP in the hearts of Quebecers, encouraged by leaders like Rodriguez, is entirely possible and imminent, provided that the party succeeds in renewing itself and responding adequately to the expectations of a constantly evolving electorate."

It is clear that Francophones have, at the very least, a nationalist streak. Legault calls them autonomists. The joint efforts of Mulroney and Bourassa absolutely demonstrate that Francophones are still seeking collective security on the North American continent. Rodriguez, with his political experience at the federal level, is not the right person to answer these social questions. He is and always will be at least one step behind the legitimate goals of his people. 

Pablo: Ne pas vendre la peau de l'ours avant de l'avoir tué !

Ne pas vendre la peau de l'ours avant de l'avoir tué ! - CHRONIQUEURS - EstriePlus.com | Journal d'actualité Web | Sherbrooke | Estrie.

Voici quelques extraits de cette chronique :

"Tout cela pour dire que l'arrivée de Pablo Rodriguez sur la scène provinciale à titre de candidat au poste de chef du Parti libéral du Québec marquera une nouvelle dynamique politique au Québec."

Quelle est cette nouvelle dynamique politique ? Posez la question au candidat et il y a fort à parier qu'il n'aura pas de réponse. Rodriguez est un exemple parfait du fédéralisme de statu quo. Il n'y a pas de plan pour le renouvellement de la fédération, ni pour la place du Québec dans celle-ci.

"Pablo Rodriguez, ancien ministre des Relations canadiennes et de la Francophonie, du transport et lieutenant politique de Justin Trudeau dans le gouvernement fédéral, incarne un renouveau et apporte avec lui une riche expérience politique, des compétences précieuses, ainsi qu'une connaissance fine des enjeux qui touchent les Québécois. Son choix de revenir au Québec s'inscrit dans un mouvement plus large qui vise à rassembler les voix francophones et à renforcer le lien essentiel entre le PLQ et cette communauté."

Pour rassembler les francophones, il faut un projet de société attirant pour les Québécois. Ce projet doit s'appuyer sur les besoins et les aspirations d'une société en mutation. Les francophones ne peuvent se contenter d'une situation où le gouvernement fédéral s'immisce de plus en plus dans les champs de compétence des gouvernements provinciaux. Le chef du Parti libéral doit, à tout le moins, freiner ces élans du grand frère à Ottawa. Idéalement, le chef devra se battre pour renverser ces décisions du gouvernement Trudeau, et Rodriguez n'est pas la personne pour mener la bataille contre Trudeau.

"La renaissance du PLQ dans le cœur des Québécois, encouragée par des leaders comme Rodriguez, est tout à fait possible et peut même être imminente, à condition que le parti réussisse à se renouveler et à répondre adéquatement aux attentes d'un électorat en constante évolution."

Il est clair que les francophones ont, à tout le moins, une fibre nationaliste. Legault les qualifie d'autonomistes. Les efforts conjoints de Mulroney et de Bourassa démontrent bien que les francophones sont toujours à la recherche d'une sécurité nationale sur le continent nord-américain. Rodriguez, avec son expérience politique au niveau fédéral, n'est pas la bonne personne pour répondre à ces questions sociales. Il est et sera toujours en retard d'au moins un pas sur les revendications légitimes de son peuple.

 

Pablo Rodriguez est-il l'homme de la situation pour le PLQ?

 Le duel de l'actu | Pablo Rodriguez est-il l'homme de la situation pour le PLQ? — 104.7 Outaouais (fm1047.ca)

Entendu dans les coulisses du PLQ:

Nous n'avons pas besoin de pneus recyclé d'Ottawa.

Pauvre Pablo: Pablo Rodriguez à TLMEP: «On peut dire que c'est une occasion manquée»

Le candidat à la chefferie du Parti libéral du Québec, Pablo Rodriguez, n'a pas impressionné Nathalie Normandeau et Philippe Cantin lors de son passage à Tout le monde en parle dimanche soir.

Première émission de Tout le monde en parle | Pablo Rodriguez à TLMEP: «On peut dire que c'est une occasion manquée» — 98.5 Montréal (985fm.ca)

 

KinsellaCast 328.

Warren,

-Hezbollah is a top-tier terrorist organization. It makes Hamas look like bush-league terrorists. So, Israel taking them on, likely largely on Netanyahu's orders, is fraught with risk. It could quite conceivably lead to an all-out two-front war.

-I agree with Martin. La Métropole is not exactly CPC fertile ground so it's the region in this province where Conservatives will always do the worst. 

-Trudeau will prorogue before the shit hits the fan. The Bloc is hopelessly naive. So is Pierre if he thinks he can bring down this government. 

-Legault is desperate for an immigration win. It's his only chance not to go down the tubes in the next election.

- If your kid is under sixteen, parents need to have the last say on these types of things.

-Abortion is the number one issue for women. In short, that's why Harris wins and likely big.

-Ask Merkel why they used pagers. Just joking.

-Rae abstained because Trudeau and Joly told him to do so. UN Ambassadors don't take a shit without checking with headquarters first. They follow orders. And Rae is leaving soon.  His UN job is waiting for him. 

Non-Confidence: A Total Waste Of Time.

Why? Because TRUDEAU will prorogue the very first moment they get a whiff that an opposition party is about to support a Conservative non-confidence motion. End of story.

Lightbound: Typically Liberal.

Lightbound has just given us his opinion on the possibility of calling a federal election ahead of schedule, i.e. before 20 October 2025. According to Lightbound, public opinion is not in favour of a premature election following a non-confidence motion:

[TRANSLATION] "As things stand, the opposition party that decides to plunge Canada into an election will also have to bear the odious consequences," he concludes.

He's dreaming in colour, especially red. For Lightbound, the fact that the Canadian people are already overwhelmingly opposed to the Liberal government doesn't seem to matter. The Conservative party is in the lead, and has been for nearly two years! But for Lightbound, it doesn't matter.

For the Trudeau Liberals, elections are just a mechanism to systematically bring the Liberals back to power. Nothing more. The king has his prerogatives.

In my opinion, it is the Liberals who are currently bearing the brunt of the public's discontent, particularly among those who intend to vote in the next election. We shall see during this parliamentary session.

Lightbond : Typiquement libéral.

Lightbound vient de nous donner son avis sur la possibilité de déclencher des élections fédérales anticipées, c'est-à-dire avant le 20 octobre 2025. Selon Lightbound, l'opinion publique n'est pas favorable à une élection prématurée suite à une motion de censure :

"Dans l'état actuel des choses, le parti d'opposition qui décidera de plonger le Canada dans une élection devra lui aussi en supporter les odieuses conséquences", conclut-il.

Il rêve en couleur, surtout en rouge. Pour Lightbound, le fait que le peuple canadien soit déjà majoritairement opposé au gouvernement libéral ne semble pas avoir d'importance. Le parti conservateur est en tête, et ce depuis près de deux ans ! Mais pour Lightbound, cela n'a pas d'importance.

Pour les libéraux de Trudeau, les élections ne sont qu'un mécanisme permettant de ramener systématiquement les libéraux au pouvoir. Rien de plus. Le roi a ses prérogatives.

À mon avis, ce sont les libéraux qui font actuellement les frais du mécontentement de la population, en particulier de ceux qui ont l'intention de voter aux prochaines élections. Nous verrons au cours de cette session parlementaire. 

The Trump Chicken Will Change His Mind.

What a joke. Trump says it's already too late to hold another debate and that's why he's turning it down. Well, not exactly. Trump doesn't want a debate because his numbers are steadily going down largely due to his conduct on the campaign trail. You know Trump, he just can't help himself and has to always act like a POS. Catch-22 and his polling averages continue to go south.

So, panic is about to set in in the so-called Team Trump. They're dropping like a stone. Give it several more weeks and then Trump will change his mind. At that point, he will have already pretty much lost everything -- so desperation will force Trump to agree to the CNN debate.

Mark my words, it's coming to a debate stage near you. 

UNRWA: Why Functional Immunity Should Be Removed.

It has been alleged that at least twelve UNRWA employees directly participated in the massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7th. Under the Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations, function immunity of employees can be removed if acts performed by them were not done in their official capacity. Article V, Section 20 reads as follows: 

Section 20. Privileges and immunities are granted to officials in the interests of the United Nations and not for the personal benefit of the individuals themselves. The Secretary-General shall have the right and the duty to waive the immunity of any official in any case where, in his opinion, the immunity would impede the course of justice and can be waived without prejudice to the interests of the United Nations. In the case of the Secretary-General, the Security Council shall have the right to waive immunity.

In this case, the section states that the Secretary-General has the power and obligation to remove functional immunity from individual employees who in his or her opinion have performed acts beyond functions performed in their official capacity.

In the real world that means that the opinion of an individual decides whether functional immunity will be removed. An OPINION. We all know what the General Assembly and Security Council are like: they are serially biased against Israel and that's a political consideration which the Secretary-General has to deal with. In this matter, one can only conclude that the Secretary-General does not want to make waves that would upset a majority of member-states. Put another way, the Secretary-General declines to do his job.

Now, let us examine why the United States Justice Department has asked the court to side with the United Nations with regard to what they refer to as absolute immunity. Given the unambiguous text of The Convention, it is clear that member-states have no choice but to request dismissal of court action in their domestic courts if the UN has not previously waived functional immunity. In short, domestic justice organizations are boxed in in law. They have no other option than to seek dismissal of lawsuits instituted by nation-states, private organizations or individuals.

In this case, one would hope that the DOJ would have made it clear to the court that its request was solely based on a legal technicality and therefore had functional immunity been waived, it would have argued that the case at bar should go forward.

In effect, UNRWA employees continue to enjoy functional immunity from prosecution because the Secretary-General refuses to recognize the obvious. These acts that are alleged were without a doubt done in a non-official and private capacity and consequently, are sufficient grounds for the removal of functional immunity pertaining to these employees. 

Why Poilièvre is going to make big political gains in Quebec.

To begin, Poilièvre is a follower of the Harper school. Like the former Prime Minister, he recognizes the vital importance to the country of the duality of the founding peoples who arrived and joined the First Nations peoples on Canadian soil.

Harper and Poilièvre understand their responsibility as political leaders to promote the distinct interests of all the provinces and territories of the country. That's why Pierre has a soft spot for Quebec and its fellow citizens. In addition, he knows the importance of his adoptive ancestors, the founders of New France. Secondly, he is lucky to love Ana, a remarkable person who is not only trilingual but also a person from Montreal who evokes the political and linguistic reality of Quebec. She has a strong belonging not only to Canada but also to the Quebec reality. Pierre could not have a better counselor. All this to say that the Conservative Party will make waves in the next election campaign which will result in a clear historical increase in the seats won in Quebec. Quebec will be in good hands with Poilièvre in Ottawa. There will be mutual respect and a deep desire to meet the basic needs of each region of the country. It will be a return to a model of cooperative and flexible federalism in the best interests of all the nations that make up the country.

Pourquoi Poilièvre va faire de grands gains politiques au Québec.

Pour commencer, Poilièvre est un adepte de l'école de Harper. Comme l'ancien premier ministre, il reconnaît l'importance vitale pour le pays de la dualité des peuples fondateurs qui sont arrivés et ont rejoint les peuples des Premières Nations sur le sol canadien.

Harper et Poilièvre reconnaissent leur responsabilité en tant que dirigeants politiques de promouvoir les intérêts distincts de toutes les provinces et territoires du pays. C'est pourquoi Pierre a un faible pour le Québec et ses concitoyens. En outre, il reconnaissait l'importance de ses ancêtres adoptifs, les fondateurs de la Nouvelle-France. Deuxièmement, il a la chance d'aimer Ana, une personne remarquable qui n'est pas seulement trilingue mais aussi une personne de Montréal qui évoque la réalité politique et linguistique du Québec. Elle a une forte appartenance non seulement au Canada mais aussi à la réalité québécoise. Pierre n'aurait pas pu avoir de meilleur conseiller. Tout cela pour dire que le Parti conservateur fera des vagues dans la prochaine campagne électorale qui se traduira par une nette augmentation historique des sièges remportés au Québec. Le Québec sera en de bonnes mains avec Poilièvre à Ottawa. Il y aura un respect mutuel et un profond désir de répondre aux besoins fondamentaux de chaque région du pays. Ce sera un retour à un modèle de fédéralisme coopératif et flexible dans le meilleur intérêt de toutes les nations qui composent le pays.

מתקפת חיזבאללה: לא בדיוק מוסאד או צה"ל.

זו חייבת להיות אחת ההונאות הגדולות ביותר בהיסטוריה הפוליטית הישראלית: מבצע שהיה בשלבי התכנון במשך 15 שנים, על פי ABC News, ופתאום מקבל אור ירוק. כתוצאה מכך, הפיצוץ של מכשירי טלפון ואולי גם רדיו הרג לפחות 37 אנשים ופצע עד 3,000. אבל למה עכשיו ומי נתן את הפקודות? עם צה"ל תקוע בעזה, אין יתרון פוליטי להרחיב חזית שנייה בלבנון. צה"ל היה חמור overstretched ואין שום אינדיקציה של מתי או אם המבצע בעזה יסתיים. מוסאד ושיין בט כבר מתוחים, אז לעורר את חיזבאללה להרחיב את המלחמה לא בהכרח באינטרס האסטרטגי של ישראל. באופן מפתיע, המבצע הזה הפחית את הביטחון הלאומי במקום להגדיל אותו. שוב, למה עכשיו? ובכן, אולי, רק אולי, נתניהו ראה שהקואליציה שלו הייתה על סף התפרקות קבועה והיה צריך משהו כדי לשמור על השרים שלו וחברי הקואליציה האחרים בקו. התהליך הזה בהחלט עושה את זה. זה עוזר לשמור על ביבי בשלטון ומפחית את הסיכויים לאבד את הכנסת. בקיצור, המלחמה המתמשכת מחזיקה את נתניהו במשרד, וזה בדיוק מה שהוא רוצה. זו הסיבה ששניהם, גלאנט ונתניהו, נתנו את האור הירוק. מלחמה בשתי חזיתות אינה בהכרח לטובת ישראל, אבל היא מתקרבת. הישראלים יכולים להודות לנתניהו שוב על כך. ביבי עכשיו מבוסס יותר מתמיד, מצב שלא מרוצה כמעט לאף אחד, מלבד נתניהו עצמו.

مهاجمة حزب الله ليس في الحقيقة الموساد أو الجيش الإسرائيلي.

يجب أن تكون هذه واحدة من أكبر عمليات الاحتيال في التاريخ السياسي الإسرائيلي: عملية كانت في مراحل التخطيط منذ خمسة عشر عامًا، وفقًا لـ ABC News، وفجأة تحصل على الضوء الأخضر. ونتيجة لذلك، أدى انفجار أجهزة الاستدعاء وربما أجهزة اللاسلكي إلى مقتل ما لا يقل عن سبعة وثلاثين شخصًا وإصابة ما يصل إلى ثلاثة آلاف شخص.

ولكن لماذا الآن ومن أعطى الأوامر؟ مع تعثر الجيش الإسرائيلي في غزة، لا توجد أي ميزة سياسية لتوسيع جبهة ثانية في لبنان. فالجيش الإسرائيلي مستنزف أصلاً فوق طاقته ولا يوجد ما يشير إلى متى أو ما إذا كانت عملية غزة ستنتهي. فالموساد وجهاز الأمن العام (الشاباك) يعملان بالفعل فوق طاقتهما، لذا فإن استفزاز حزب الله لتوسيع الحرب ليس بالضرورة في مصلحة إسرائيل الاستراتيجية. ومن الغريب أن هذه العملية قد قللت من الأمن القومي بدلاً من تعزيزه.

مرة أخرى، لماذا الآن؟ حسنًا، ربما، ربما فقط، رأى نتنياهو أن ائتلافه كان على وشك التفكك بشكل دائم وكان بحاجة إلى شيء ما لإبقاء الوزراء المنشقين وأعضاء الائتلاف الآخرين على الخط. هذه العملية تفعل ذلك بالتأكيد. فهي تساعد على إبقاء بيبي في السلطة وتقلل من فرص الهزيمة في الكنيست. وباختصار، فإن الحرب المستمرة تبقي نتنياهو في منصبه، وهذا بالضبط ما يريده.

ولهذا السبب أعطى كل من غالانت ونتنياهو الضوء الأخضر. الحرب على جبهتين ليست بالضرورة في صالح إسرائيل، ولكنها قادمة. ويمكن للإسرائيليين أن يشكروا نتنياهو مرة أخرى على ذلك. لقد أصبح بيبي الآن أكثر رسوخًا من أي وقت مضى، وهو وضع لا يرضي أحدًا تقريبًا، باستثناء نتنياهو نفسه.

Attacking Hezbollah: Not really Mossad or the IDF.

This has to be one of the biggest scams in Israeli political history: an operation that has been in the planning stages for fifteen years, according to ABC News, and suddenly gets the green light. As a result, the explosion of pagers and possibly radios killed at least thirty-seven people and injured up to three thousand.

But why now and who gave the orders? With the IDF bogged down in Gaza, there is no political advantage to expanding a second front in Lebanon. The IDF is already seriously overstretched and there is no indication of when or if the Gaza operation will end. The Mossad and Shin Bet are already overextended, so provoking Hezbollah to expand the war is not necessarily in Israel's strategic interest. Oddly enough, this operation has diminished rather than enhanced national security.

Again, why now? Well, maybe, just maybe, Netanyahu saw that his coalition was on the verge of permanently disintegrating and needed something to keep the dissident ministers and other coalition members in line. This process certainly does that. It helps keep Bibi in power and minimizes the chances of defeat in the Knesset. In short, the ongoing war keeps Netanyahu in office, which is exactly what he wants.

That is why both Gallant and Netanyahu gave the green light. War on two fronts is not necessarily in Israel's favour, but it is coming. Israelis can once again thank Netanyahu for that. Bibi is now more entrenched than ever, a situation that pleases almost no one, except Netanyahu himself.

Pablo: He lacks judgement and is not a true Quebec nationalist.

Rodriguez is now running for the leadership of the QLP and his campaign is already in full swing. Pablo would have us believe that he is and always has been a great Quebec nationalist. Here's what he said: [TRANSLATION] "I'm certain that François Legault's Quebec, with its divisive policies, doesn't look like Quebec, doesn't bring Quebec together. I am also deeply convinced [...] that a referendum is neither desired by Quebecers nor desirable’."

And his campaign co-chair, former minister Luc Fortin, goes in the same direction of political illusion: he tells us that Rodriguez is ‘resolutely “nationalist”’. [TRANSLATION] "I think people are going to discover Pablo Rodriguez, the Quebec nationalist. I know Pablo,’ says Luc Fortin. Sometimes,’ he continues, ’things are said in caucus and cabinet that aren't made public. I know that he has always been a very strong voice for Quebec. I think it will be very easy for him to get rid of the image that his opponents are trying to pin on him." 

Rodriguez joined Trudeau's cabinet in 2019, when he became Leader of the Government in the House of Commons. Neither Pablo nor Fortin talk about the great gains for Quebec as a result of the Trudeau government's initiatives to devolve powers to Quebec. That's because there have been no gains, full stop. This supposedly great nationalist couldn't convince his prime minister, let alone his fellow ministers. But hey.

It's also fun to pretend that Pablo is the new Captain Canada and that from now on he's going to fight fiercely for Quebec's interests alone. Well, let's see. He's far from Charest's second coming.

As for his former colleagues in Ottawa, he has totally abandoned them for personal political gain. His ambition has got the better of him. He's slamming the door just when Trudeau needs him most. And the icing on the cake is that this tired Liberal will now be wearing the false colours of an independent MP. Rodriguez doesn't have enough judgment to understand that his former colleagues, now his new colleagues in the QLP, are fiercely Liberal at the federal level. It's easy to estimate that 80% or 90% of members support Trudeau in Ottawa. Once again, Pablo is using political camouflage.

All this to say that Rodriguez doesn't have the intellectual depth or political rigour of Charest. His political candidacy comes off much more like a musical comedy... 

Pablo : Il manque de jugement et n'est pas un vrai nationaliste québécois.

Rodriguez est maintenant candidat à la direction du PLQ et sa campagne bat déjà son plein. Pablo veut nous faire croire qu'il est et a toujours été un grand nationaliste québécois. Voici ce qu'il dit : Je suis certain que le Québec de François Legault, avec ses politiques de division, ne ressemble pas au Québec, ne rassemble pas le Québec. Je suis aussi profondément convaincu [...] qu'un référendum n'est ni souhaité par les Québécois, ni souhaitable ».

Et son coprésident de campagne, l'ancien ministre Luc Fortin, va dans le même sens de l'illusion politique : il nous dit que Rodriguez est « résolument “nationaliste” ». Je pense que les gens vont découvrir Pablo Rodriguez, le nationaliste québécois. Je connais Pablo », dit Luc Fortin. Parfois, poursuit-il, il se dit des choses au caucus et au conseil des ministres qui ne sont pas rendues publiques. Je sais qu'il a toujours été une voix très forte pour le Québec. Je pense qu'il lui sera très facile de se débarrasser de l'image que ses adversaires essaient de lui coller. 

Rodriguez a rejoint le cabinet de Trudeau en 2019, lorsqu'il est devenu leader du gouvernement à la Chambre des communes. Ni Pablo ni Fortin ne parlent des grands gains pour le Québec qui découlent des initiatives du gouvernement Trudeau en matière de dévolution des pouvoirs au Québec. C'est parce qu'il n'y a pas eu de gains, point final. Ce soi-disant grand nationaliste n'a pas réussi à convaincre son premier ministre et encore moins ses collègues ministres. Mais bon.

C'est drôle de prétendre que Pablo est le nouveau Capitaine Canada et qu'il va désormais se battre farouchement pour les seuls intérêts du Québec. Voyons donc. Il est loin d'être le second avènement de Charest.

Quant à ses anciens collègues d'Ottawa, il les a totalement abandonnés au profit de ses intérêts politiques personnels. Son ambition a pris le dessus. Il claque la porte au moment où Trudeau a le plus besoin de lui. Et cerise sur le gâteau, ce libéral fatigué portera désormais les fausses couleurs d'un député indépendant. Rodriguez n'a pas assez de jugement pour comprendre que ses anciens collègues, maintenant ses nouveaux collègues du PLQ, sont farouchement libéraux au fédéral. Il est facile d'estimer que 80% ou 90% des membres appuient Trudeau à Ottawa. Encore une fois, Pablo fait du camouflage politique.

Tout cela pour dire que Rodriguez n'a pas la profondeur intellectuelle ni la rigueur politique de Charest. Sa candidature politique ressemble beaucoup plus à une comédie musicale...  

Legault misses the boat by hoping for the fall of the Liberal government.

Legault is asking the Bloc Québécois to vote against the Trudeau government because the federal government refuses to cut in half the 600,000 temporary immigrants who have arrived in Quebec. What's more, the Trudeau government is refusing to transfer other immigration powers to Quebec. Traditionally, the Premier of Quebec remains impartial when a federal election is called.

This brings us to the Bloc Québécois, which is calling for pensions for people aged 65 to 74 to be increased to the same level as those paid to people aged 75 and over. And they want the federal government to transfer more powers over immigration.

In the end, these demands arrive on the Trudeau government's doorstep as a dead letter. There is no chance that the federal government will grant what the Bloc is asking for. This means that the Bloc will not be able to vote to save the government. On the other hand, the NDP will not be able to vote against the Liberals, because Singh wants to avoid the Conservative Party forming the next government at all costs.

In conclusion, whatever the circumstances, the Trudeau government will not be toppled by the Bloc or the NDP in the Conservative motion of non-confidence. 

Legault rate le coche en espérant la chute du gouvernement libéral.

Legault demande au Bloc québécois de voter contre le gouvernement Trudeau parce que le gouvernement fédéral refuse de réduire de moitié les 600 000 immigrants temporaires qui sont arrivés au Québec. De plus, le gouvernement Trudeau refuse de transférer au Québec d'autres pouvoirs en matière d'immigration. Traditionnellement, le premier ministre du Québec reste impartial lorsqu'une élection fédérale est déclenchée.

Cela nous amène à parler du Bloc Québécois, qui demande que les pensions des personnes âgées de 65 à 74 ans soient augmentées au même niveau que celles versées aux personnes âgées de 75 ans et plus. Et ils veulent que le gouvernement fédéral transfère plus de pouvoirs en matière d'immigration.

En fin de compte, ces demandes arrivent sur le pas de la porte du gouvernement Trudeau comme une lettre morte. Il n'y a aucune chance que le gouvernement fédéral accorde ce que le Bloc demande. Cela signifie que le Bloc ne pourra pas voter pour sauver le gouvernement. D'autre part, le NPD ne pourra pas non plus voter contre les libéraux, car Singh veut à tout prix éviter que le Parti conservateur forme le prochain gouvernement.

En conclusion, quelles que soient les circonstances, le gouvernement Trudeau ne sera pas renversé par le Bloc ou le NPD dans la motion de censure conservatrice.

Pablo: The Candidate of Anglophones and Immigrants.

It's clear that Pablo is not at all the candidate of Quebec's French-speaking majority, but rather the candidate of Quebec's ethnic minorities. He's Trudeau's multiculturalism with a new head office in Montreal.

In other words, it's unacceptable. The Quebec government exists to defend the rights and aspirations of Quebecers whose mother tongue is French. That is the Quebec nation. That's not Rodriguez's mentality at all. He's another Anglade and he'll end up with the same result from French-speaking Quebecers. Pablo won't hit paydirt, not only in the leadership race, but also within the majority population.

This is what he said himself, according to Radio-Canada: [TRANSLATION] "In clarifying his intentions on Thursday, Pablo Rodriguez explained that he wanted to make the leap to Quebec because he disagrees with the way the Legault government treats anglophones and immigrants who, in his view, no longer identify with Quebec." 

Quebec nationalists are already laughing their heads off. All we can do now is wait to see how Quebecers react to this so-called Quebec candidacy. You can guess the result. 

Pablo : Le candidat des anglophones et des immigrants.

Il est clair que Pablo n'est pas du tout le candidat de la majorité francophone du Québec, mais plutôt le candidat des minorités ethniques du Québec. Il est le multiculturalisme de Trudeau avec un nouveau siège social à Montréal.

En d'autres termes, c'est inacceptable. Le gouvernement du Québec existe pour défendre les droits et les aspirations des Québécois de langue maternelle française. C'est cela la nation québécoise. Ce n'est pas du tout la mentalité de Rodriguez. C'est un autre Anglade et il aura le même résultat avec les Québécois francophones. En bon Québécois, Pablo ne pognera pas, non seulement dans la course à la chefferie, mais aussi au sein de la population majoritaire.

C'est ce qu'il a dit lui-même, selon Radio-Canada : "En clarifiant ses intentions jeudi, Pablo Rodriguez a expliqué qu'il voulait faire le saut au Québec parce qu'il est en désaccord avec la façon dont le gouvernement Legault traite les anglophones et les immigrants qui, selon lui, ne s'identifient plus au Québec." 

Les nationalistes québécois sont déjà morts de rire. Il ne nous reste plus qu'à attendre la réaction des Québécois à cette soi-disant candidature québécoise. On peut deviner le résultat. 

Pablo: Now a candidate in the QLP race.

Ha, ha, ha, Trudeau and Telford have had enough. Pablo's hand has been forced. And worse than that, Rodriguez is far from confident: that's why he's keeping his parachute in Honoré-Mercier. Pablo knows full well that he risks losing, and he has to lose.

The Quebec Liberals don't need a transplant from Ottawa. They already have enough candidates who are active in Quebec rather than in Ottawa.

My message to Pablo is simple: if you think you'll win, resign tomorrow as a federal MP. Otherwise, this candidacy is just a joke.

Pablo : Maintenant un candidat dans la course du PLQ.

Ha, ha, ha, Trudeau et Telford en ont eu assez. La main de Pablo a été forcée. Et pire que ça, Rodriguez est loin d'être confiant : c'est pour ça qu'il garde son parachute dans Honoré-Mercier. Pablo sait très bien qu'il risque de perdre, et il doit perdre.

Les libéraux québécois n'ont pas besoin d'un transfuge d'Ottawa. Ils ont déjà suffisamment de candidats qui sont actifs en sol québécois plutôt qu'à Ottawa.

Mon message à Pablo est simple : si tu penses gagner, démissionne demain de ton poste de député fédéral. Sinon, cette candidature n'est qu'une blague.

Quebec: Stay Or Go?

Well, the comments over at Warren's website can't go unaddressed IMHO:

Martin,

Yup, few of us adore Pierre but he's competent and that's not only good enough for me but also a step up from the current prime minister. Glad to see you're proud of your French heritage. Most people in English Canada don't give a shit about the country remaining united anymore. All that does is ensure that St-Pierre Plamondon wins his referendum, which should take place in his second mandate, not the first.

Steve,

Couillard and Legault have asked for specific powers, none of which have been transferred to Quebec. So much for the Liberals servicing Quebec. If we separate it'll be a wash: no more equalization and no more paying federal taxes.

Andrew,

The Americans will recognize a sovereign Quebec. They have not and will not interfere in our internal affairs.

Joseph,

Again, what powers have been transferred from Ottawa to Quebec. N-O-N-E. You need to contact Harper. He, as a student of Quebec will tell you quite frankly that the Bloc teetering had nothing to do with his government. Quebecers were looking for a political alternative and found none that was politically acceptable. Harper will also remind you how his successive governments never got more than 10-12 seats in Quebec...so...no one turned to the CPC as the logical alternative. Later, the Trudeau Liberals were found wanting and people moved back solidly behind the Bloc. That's the real story. As for the laughable Clarity Act, stemming from Harper's thinking, it means zero. If Yes wins a referendum, Ottawa has two choices: accept and negotiate a departure or fight, which no government will do on Quebec's territory. The CA is unadulterated bullshit. As for Poilièvre, he won't be following Pedant's advice. He cares about Quebec staying in the federation and that's why he will spend considerable time and resources in this province to win as many seats as possible. Finally, absolutely agree that the Liberals are stuck with Trudeau. Lucky them!

WestGuy,

No one ever said that powers transferred to Quebec couldn't also be transferred to the other provinces but the little secret is that both Harper and Trudeau didn't want to transfer any substantial powers to the provinces, period. Harper stuck with the Triple E Senate bullshit. He had nothing else to offer any of the provinces. Churchill Falls can't be cancelled. It's a contract upheld by the courts.

Pedant,

Are you stupid or what? The CPC is the only other national party capable of forming government and as such must reinforce the binational character of Canada. A Conservative government without legitimate and respectable representation in Quebec is politically illegitimate. Why do you think Harper made so much effort in Quebec? Harper instinctively knew that and so does Pierre. The latter was a representative government that represents all regions and binational characteristics. Pierre will be like Harper and make considerable efforts in Quebec. And if Quebec goes, other provinces will inevitably follow. It will be more advantageous for them to join the United States than to remain in a bifurcated what is left of Canada. Thank God Pierre is smart enough to already know this.

UPDATED: 

WestGuy,

In theory, any judgment can be challenged but this is a SCOC decision. The case concerns a private company and a government crown corporation. The contract was drawn up under Quebec Civil Law. Long story short, the court majority ruled that the terms of the contract were not violated by Hydro-Quebec reselling the power at higher prices to third parties. IMHO, were Quebec to separate that would change nothing as the judgment is rendered under Quebec Civil Law. Then there's the question of leave to appeal, which is not possible in this case. This is a final judgment in Canadian law. No more Privy Council in London to appeal to. 

AUKUS: Consulting Canada, Right...

As usual, this government doesn't know its head from its ass: AUKUS is primarily a tripartite nuclear-powered submarine-building endeavour. Meanwhile, our genius is planning on replacing our crappy, defective, smoky and water-logged British diesel submarines with twelve more conventionally powered boats.

One supposes Canada wants to be taken seriously, even with Trudeau as our prime minister. In that case, we'll have to commit to purchasing nuclear subs somewhere down the road, just like we were basically strong-armed into purchasing the F-35, that budgetary obscenity. Otherwise, forget it.

I'm Sticking With My Trudeau Prediction.

Trudeau took them from third place to government and now he'll take them right back to third place in the next election, whenever it comes.

Thank You, Warren.

Before I begin, I want to thank Warren for his kind gesture. It, along with the comments from fellow commenters is greatly appreciated.

For my part, I want to echo the same sentiments regarding our colleague, Robert G. White. Robert has also been missing from Warren's website and I hope he is well and still among us. His thoughtful insight and interesting musings are missed by many.

Now, as to my absence, in politics one makes friends, acquaintances and especially enemies if you're any damned good. I've got plenty of the latter in the two main parties. Since several years, my e-mail addresses have been systematically attacked with ever increasing sophistication. Sometimes it took me less than a day to get back up and running but the last attack was a thing to behold. I have a fair idea who is behind it all but will refrain from speculating publicly. They know who they are.

You see, nothing gives me more pleasure in life than to play Reagan's role with various leaders who've I enjoyed taking to the woodshed à la David Stockman. Some of those leaders gave as good as they got. Others, just can't take the heat. It's what Truman said.

The last attack is the result of a Wordpress error not inflicted upon my comments by our host. As a result, commenting is no longer possible. Since I can't overcome this distortion, I've taken to increasing content on my blog. Hope I haven't bored too many of you to sleep. LOL.

Thanks again for your remarks and my best to all.

Trump + Vance = Morons.

Listen Morons,

The first shooter was a registered Republican and the second voted for Trump in 2016...

When You Delete An X Post...

Tell me, which says more about you, the X post you wrote, or the fact that you deleted it? I guess the jury is out on that one, at least for a while.  

Trudeau And Gould Call Poilièvre A Liar And Fraudster.

Well, at least no one has called Pierre an adulterer. That shoe definitely doesn't fit. Next.

NH Libertarians: Well, Somebody Is About To Get Charged.

Some nutcase posted and then deleted that assassinating Harris would be "heroic." That one won't pass. The NH DA's office will see to that. Wouldn't want to be in that guy's shoes.

When Assassins Miss Or Are Stopped.

You know what people are like...so many of them can't possibly move beyond their biases so let's keep this post generic.

Here's the question: when leaders are saved from the bullet, who saves them? In some cases, history has proven that it was God, Jesus or the Virgin Mary while in others, leaders have been saved by the Devil. No need to name names. We all know leaders that fall into both categories.

And as a Catholic and Christian, I've seen two kinds of clergy: those with God and those with the Devil. Again, no need to name names. We all remember who some of them are in both groups. 

The devil-worshippers are extra funny: think back to 2020 when five or six of them took to the internet to tell all of us that God had told them who would win the presidential election. Funny how they all got it wrong in the end. They must have been on the wrong God-direct pipeline frequency. Suddenly, after election day, they made themselves scarce to a man. 

So...don't try to put yourself in God's place to determine who saved whom under such circumstances. ONLY God knows who he chose to save and who gets saved by the Devil.